The TTP and Imran Khan’s Logic – by A Z
It is widely believed that the PMLN has the inside track with the TTP and other militant organizations, even though their entente cordiale is increasingly frayed as, being in the federal government, it can no longer connive at the militants’ activities in bargain for peace in Punjab. The PPP was also pliant enough to keep the party’s entire cadre all over the national territory out of harm’s way during its five years. The ANP and the MQM, being the only two truly secular parties in Pakistan, are blatantly targeted by Islamist militants and continue to pay a huge price. However, during the last many years no prominent political leader in Pakistan has been as desperate to woo Taliban as Imran Khan.
In his zeal to do so, Khan Sahib is often prone to indulging in logical fallacies. For example, in his latest statement, while pleading for the TTP’s right to open an office in Islamabad, Khan Sahib invoked the analogy of the US having Taliban establish an office in Qatar. Clearly an argument based upon an assumed similarity between two things when in fact the two things being compared are not similar in the manner invoked, this is a false analogy that either betrays an inadequate political understanding or attempts to deliberately mislead the people. In saying so Khan Sahib has overlooked the blatant dissimilarity between the two situations. For example: One, The US has used a neutral territory for the Taliban to open an office. It has not allowed the Taliban to open an office in Washington. And two, the US is talking with the Taliban in Afghanistan – a country the US invaded which is almost the opposite of our situation where the TTP is raging an insurgency within our national territory.
As we see above, even when all of the premises of an argument are reliably true, the argument may still be invalid if the logic employed is not legitimate – a so-called logical fallacy. For example, during the past fifteen years in Pakistan both religious participation and illegal drug use have been on the rise. It would be a fallacy to conclude that therefore, religious participation causes illegal drug use or that drug use leads to an increase in religious participation. A deeper probing would reveal that both drug use and religious participation are spurred by insecurity and societal unrest. Do positions such as likening the TTP’s opening an office in Pakistan to Afghan Taliban’s establishing an office in Qatar betray an inability to understand that often the seemingly analogous situations can be totally unalike because of their differing contexts?
Perhaps, yes, as in the past too Khan Sahib has often used faulty logic as support for the truth of his self-made conclusions. For instance, he has always defined the TTP’s terrorism as a reaction to drone attacks without ever being able to describe what the innocent Pakistani women and children being targeted by the TTP have to do with the drone attacks. Khan Sahib has also never been able to explain that if his logic were true then why don’t the kith and kin of the tens of thousands of victims of the TTP in Pakistan resort to mindlessly avenging themselves. Hence, this premise is an unwarranted assumption that has not been established sufficiently to serve as a premise for Khan Sahib’s argument. Even if we discount the possibility of any insidious hidden premises, Khan Sahib comes out as a past master at choosing the assumptions that best fit the conclusion he prefers. So at best, Khan Sahib’s fondness to start with desired conclusions and then construct arguments to support them leads him to draw upon logical fallacies to make his arguments.
Especially, when it comes to the Taliban, Khan Sahib’s mind is always too willing to fall into logical pitfalls. It is difficult to say whether or not Khan Sahib is consciously aware of these pitfalls but what is clear is that he makes no efforts to avoid them. In 2007 when late Benazir Bhutto’s homecoming welcome procession was attacked he blamed the late Benazir Bhutto and her supporters for the Karsaz blast that killed 200 innocent civilians instead of blaming the Taliban. Finally Ms Bhutto was killed and the TTP openly claimed responsibility for killing her but Khan Sahib still asserts that Ms Bhutto was not killed by the Taliban.
This also often tricks Khan Sahib into making ad hominem arguments attacking the person, rather than addressing the argument itself. For example, Khan Sahib declared Professor Hoodbhoy a paid American agent when the poor professor criticized Khan Sahib for having a soft corner for the Taliban. A common form of this fallacy is also frequently present in the arguments of conspiracy theorists, many of them quite close to Khan Sahib.
Hence, when it comes to the TTP, Khan Sahib is ever so eager to oversimplify a complex continuum of variation to black and white explanations by stretching the logic to force absurd conclusions such as Ms Bhutto was not killed by Taliban or that Professor Hoodbhoy is a paid American agent. As the luck would have it, forming the government in the KPK province has put Khan Sahib on a slippery slope making his oversimplifications increasingly untenable even for the folks in his party. Sooner or later Khan Sahib will have to cast aside his illogical ad-hoc reasoning about the Taliban and the terrorism against Pakistanis. The challenges facing the PTI’s government in the KPK demand it sooner rather than later. Khan Sahib surely does not lack courage and forthrightness but will need to muster a lot of intellectual honesty to probe evidence instead of succumbing to confirmation bias and half truths as he readily does when it comes to the TTP.
Very logical analysis by author. Below points can further summarise the argument, I hope
1. Benchmarking this suggestion with opening of Taliban office in Qatar is fictitious. As that initiative could not last for even a single day. A state cannot live this phenomenon even though an occupational force launched the idea.
2. Comparing it with MQM is also irrational that if terrorist org. like MQM can have offices then why not Taliban. It’s highly misleading as MQM have never accepted the responsibility of any act of terrorism or killing. The day they they will accept any such responsibility, their existence will be proscribed not only in Pakistan but in London too.
3. A terrorist organization can always have their political face. For example, Baloch Republican Army (BRA) Led by Brakhamdakh bugti also have their political offices but with name of ” Baloch Republican Party” (BRP). BRP always announces their moral support to BRA but can never accept responsibilities of act of terrorism. So constitutional dilemma is that you cannot allow BRA to open office but you still cannot close BRP office though govt know that both are same. Similarly BLA has their office as BNV, BLF as BNF, and Laskare Sahaba as jammat ehle sunnat.
4. It’s the extreme of being simpleton that there could be no communication until there in no office. For any such talk, there is simply created a communication channel between two parties by which they exchanges their demands and issues statement to media through their identified source. A question of office can only arise if the other group surrenders to their political role after giving up to state demands. If a plane is hijacked by a group, you simply develops communication line with hijackers for negotiation and does not open an office for them for sitting together.
Rationally, IK suggestion to open office for TTP is utterly insane as he have called a terrorist outfit to open their offices. it’s something like that if IK insist to continue the office of MQM in London and Pakistan even if MQM ever accepts responsibility of any act of killing.
Very valid points, indeed. Thank you.
negative only about IK, arguing with too heavy words. totally invalid and disagreeable
anlysis.a wastage of time and energy
“Finally Ms Bhutto was killed and the TTP openly claimed responsibility for killing her but Khan Sahib still asserts that Ms Bhutto was not killed by the Taliban.”
When did that happen? The last time I read or heard anything from Ahsanullah Ahsan.. he said that Taliban would never target a woman. This assumption on your part shows your anti-Imran Khan bias and wishful thinking. You are so blinded by hatred that you will invent lies to prove your point. Disgraceful!
Taliban dont kill women, AUA said this. oh yeah, I forgot, scores of women killed in suicide bomb attacks by Taliban are not women, they are Pakistani.
I think Mr. Anjum’s point is valid (given that TTP did indeed promise about not targeting women). Why?
Because, targeting someone is different from someone being killed in an attack (apparently targeted at another person or people).
A better example in favor of your argument would be the attack on Malala, which was indeed done by and accepted by TTP. That was a deliberate targeting of a woman (or girl).
However, the basic point Mr. Anjum made was about TTP accepting attack on Ms. Bhutto. In my humble and limited knowledge that never actually happened (although Baitullah Mehsud did openly threaten to kill her). In fact, it was an apparent phone call intercept that implicated TTP in Ms. Bhutto’s assassination. It is still, however, not proven who killed Ms. Bhutto. The suspects include Musharraf, Rehman Malik and TTP. Given the fact that the murder scene was immediately washed, hardly leaves any room for suspicion on TTP.
shame on u whole artical shows ur biasness find another way to disrespect IK hes the real hero and our honest leader unlike these useless ppp nd pml n Mqm dogs
What particularly is the point which this article erroneously referred to IK? please tell me too because I don’t have an insight like you.
He doesn’t have any insight, he is just a fanatic , who wants to defend IK honour at any cost (maybe he thinks IK is too foolish and he cant do it on his own)(and i agree).
Excellent article.It is clear from his statements that he is in cahoots with the taliban terrorist,it feels like he is their spokesman.Pakistan public is not naive in not electing an immature person as Pm.He would have made pakistan a laughing stock on the world stage.He should be in entertainment industry.
You know what Khan is not the PM of this country but at least his suggestion makes sense as having an office will make TTP accountable to Pakistan. As currently claims made on behalf of TTP are revealed by a media whose patriotism is questionable at the least. If you feel a mindless operation into Baluchistan & Pukhoonkhwa in search of glory against TTP is a solution to the problem,,, Mr. Zaidi you have another thing coming as you need a lesson in history about Pashtoons.
I am a pashtoon and I think you can never know my history better than me. IK is a myopic person, talks about only one office. But you can understand that there must be atleaset 50 officies because there are 50 Taliban groups.
🙂 I would love to hear an alternative solution
Asay de km zay pukhtoon ye ?? aw history na se khabar ye,,, i love to learn 🙂
Excellent article with valid points. Reading some of the comments from few, I see that, like their leader, PTI supporters are also in the state of denial.
What a rational, realistic and great article by Asif Zaidi. After a long time I have come across such a truthful article; for the righteous voices are increasingly becoming fewer and fewer. The cowards appeasing Taliban will come to the same conclusion, sooner or later.Keep at it.
Indeed it is… Imran Khan is just a fool in the game of lions …
What i am really interested in is an alternative solution and a national policy against terrorism or at least a faint structure of it since 9/11 where the ball actually fell in our court.
Excellent pen man ship Mr. Zaidi i cannot take that away from you, but i am sure you get the hang of what i am trying to say here.
IMRAN KHAN IS NOT RUNNING THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
at least IK has some idea…our PM is still thinking. All the media and journalists has nothing else to mention except IK which shows his popularity.
Though i am a supporter of IK and PTI but I must agree with the writer on this one. Very logical reasoning. I am afraid IK is losing it!! And PTI has become just like another political party having “jayalas” who will support their party no matter what!! Sad!!
But it is strong logic that every problem is solved through dialog not through WAR.
Criticism is very easy task but no one have solution of the problem which is come after 9/11.
I don’t know why people are mourning on the death of BB Jee. She was also a traitor like Nawaz Shareef and Zardari .
As far as TTP’s office issue is concern, it can be helpful to see the fact about TTP , in front of people of Pakistan . After all we ,common people .don’t know facts about both the parties , our bastard political leaders and TTP. If TTP don’t seem to change their agenda then we should kick them out by force like Pak Army did in Sawat.
dear u have right to disagree to ik remarks about taliban office.but give me guarenttee on ur part and i m giving on ik part so that we go to fata for having a diolouge table there with taliban as supported by the last apc
I am surprised at your thinking.
Do YOU have any solution? The army operation is going on for 9 years now. Has terrorism increased or decreased?
If you start an army operation, what will happen? They will melt away into the common people, like in Afghanistan. When the operation stops, they will start again.
Has anybody, except IK, ever tried to find the basic cause of their problem?
Just saying they want Shariah is BS. They existed before 2004, but were alienated to the aggressor in Afghanistan. They were fighting USA in Afghanistan. They only started against us when we became proxies of USA.
As to why the kith and kin of numerous killed have not become terrorists, how do you know they haven’t? I know a person whose parents were killed in a suicide attack and he bought a gun, practised with it and vanishes for weeks. Doing what is anybody’s guess. But for the Pashtoons, they are already armed and have been warriors since ages.
So please dont mislead people by half truths.
Mr Khan in Wonderland
Ejaz Haider
Saturday, October 05, 2013
From Print Edition
239 32 185 1
The chairman of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, Imran Khan, has penned an article in this newspaper – Dialogue: the best of difficult options – explaining his position on the Taliban threat. It’s good that Khan has presented his position in writing, which can be scrutinised and debated.
He opens his spell with a reference to East Pakistan, informing us that the events leading to “the breakup of our country, left me with a strong conviction that military operations are never a solution to any problem, least of all one involving one’s own people”. This is a very loose ball.
While the now-Bangladeshis wanted to secede for political reasons, the Taliban, far from wanting to secede, actually want to conquer this state. They are not saying ‘you go your way and we shall ours’. They want us to surrender and give up our land.
Perhaps, we should set aside this fundamental difference for the sake of making room for Khan’s two-staged operative objection about use of force against own people. My position on the normative aspect of this statement is not far from Khan’s. I shall go a step further and say that the use of force even against another state must be an option of last resort. This should establish two facts: one, it is never a happy situation where one might have to resort to the use of force; two, one may yet do it and states have done it, not just against other states but also against internal threats.
I may also indicate to Khan that the secession of East Pakistan, in the final analysis, came because of an external military push. It is a counterfactual but perhaps he should give a thought to the question of whether East Pakistan could have seceded without that massive military help.
Finally, and because the argument above must not be misconstrued as taking away from the socio-political and economic grievances of East Pakistan, it is important to note that the debacle in that wing was not a military one. In taking a snapshot view of what happened in East Pakistan, Khan is losing the longer, political trajectory that led to the use of force, even if we grant, with hindsight, that that policy in its details and planning could have been better, if not entirely different. But, as I have argued above, it is equally imperative to see whether without a full-fledged Indian invasion of East Pakistan, we would have seen the secession. A good example of that is Occupied Kashmir.
Khan then goes on to say that he “stood firmly with those who opposed Musharraf’s Balochistan operation and earlier the sending of the military into Waziristan”. I agree. Balochistan was best dealt with politically. But Baloch sub-nationalism is again a secessionist threat. It cannot be put in the same category as the Taliban threat.
As for sending the military into Waziristan, Khan makes two mistakes. One, it is factually incorrect to say that the army was never deployed to the tribal agencies before 2004. He should read the history of 7 Division and the raising of XI Corps with the addition of 9 Div. His other mistake is to imply that the tribal agencies should be left as an anachronism.
Khan, perhaps unknowingly, is correct in assuming that the military, initially, was quite unaware of how to deal with the situation. The fault was General Musharraf’s. The operations conducted between 2004 and 2007 were flawed in many ways, alternating between suing for peace and using force without much thought to the politico-strategic ends of either.
Moreover, Khan continues to suggest that the tribal areas were an idyllic place into which the state inducted the serpent. That is absolutely incorrect. Al-Qaeda and other sundry foreign fighters had ingressed into the area. They were not only using the tribal areas as sanctuaries but also planning and executing attacks from Pakistani territory into other states and inside Pakistan. That situation needed to be addressed. While one can criticise the conduct of the operations, to imply that operations were the cause of what we face today is to reverse causality rather arbitrarily.
This war did not begin in 2004. Its enabling environment started shaping in the early eighties with the two policies of Islamisation at home and support for the Afghan mujahideen. The extremism begotten of one began to complement the jihadist millenarianism of the other. Groups and individuals nourished in this environment began to think and act supra-state. Khan’s party represents the state and the state simply cannot accept actions and motives that go beyond and above it.
This means, first, that Khan’s starting point for this conflict on the historical tragedy is flawed and, second, that this mindset will not vanish when the last American troops pull out of Afghanistan. If anything, unless we adopt domestic and regional strategies to root it out, including but not exclusively through the use of force, the situation is likely to get worse.
Khan seems “convinced that peace cannot be restored in Pakistan through continuing military operations”. I hope he is right. But he needs to appreciate the situation rather than situating the appreciation.
That brings me to another point that Khan and his party stalwarts raise – ie, military operations have not been effective. Having witnessed many of these operations, I can assure Khan that the physical landscape of the tribal agencies and frontier regions today is very different from what it was in 2007 and 2008. The relevant point, however, is this: why has the physical dominance of these areas so far not entirely resulted in social-psychological and economic-fiscal dominance, which is the only way to successfully build the strategic triangle?
The answer to that will not come by focussing merely on military operations or their perceived ineffectiveness but by asking the question of how and why other elements of national power could not be harnessed and employed to make use of the space that was created by military operations. Why, for instance, has the state not addressed the threat of reprisals that were to inevitably come in the urban centres and which required, and still do, the creation of effective counter-terrorism police units to work in collaboration with a capable police force?
Formulating a strategy requires, foremost, a full evaluation of the responses available to the state and answering the question of whether the state, in fact, has utilised them. In our case, that has not happened.
There’s much else that can be debated in Khan’s article but there’s never enough space. He keeps comparing situations – like Ireland – with the one we have here when they were/are strategically, historically and ideologically very different. Even in the case of Sri Lanka, while most of us know about and refer to the Tamil problem, no one seems to know or remember another problem, much more like ours: Sinhala extremism by the JVP. In any case, the examples he gives either refer to foreign occupations or to secessionist movements. Pakistan is neither in illegal occupation of its territories nor is the TTP a secessionist force.
Finally, his defence of the proposal to open a TTP office by using the term ‘stakeholders’ in the resolution that came out of the government-sponsored conference is at best naïve, at worst, dangerous. The TTP is not a legitimate stakeholder in power-sharing like perhaps the Afghan Taliban whose office Khan keeps referring to and who are, again, fighting combined armies of states foreign to Afghanistan. Talking to the TTP, therefore, is meant – or should mean – for the state to reassert its authority, not accept the legitimacy of the TTP’s criminal actions. Offering the TTP an office, even before determining the bargaining zone and establishing the state’s maximum reservation point, is to reverse the order of negotiation theory.
I understand Khan’s frustration. I don’t doubt his sincerity. But he must understand the complexity of what’s happening and why. (I wish it were as simple as a mere reaction to drone strikes, which is another topic altogether.) Even more, he should know that we are in this for the long haul.
The writer is a journalist and a visiting fellow at SDPI.
Twitter: @ejazhaider
http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-9-206304-Mr-Khan-in-Wonderland
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