“I always tell the truth even when I lie” (Al Pacino, Scarface)
Real and IK tsunamis have at least one common denominator. Both involve mysterious underground activities.
Every few months, we are told that ignorant Pakistanis have, at last, seen the light and PTI is persistently becoming more and more popular. Even though people have voted for other parties in by-elections or PTI refused to take part, they still claim the most popular title. May be it is part of a grand strategy that they do not take part in elections, same way Taliban ‘strategically’ withdrew from Kabul.
When so called surveys come out, many leaders of PTI and the latest Messiah IK himself announce the great news, with anchors working as amplifiers. However if one tries to probe little more, things seem more mysterious and shady.
So called IRI surveys have not been conducted by IRI themselves, but by Institute for Public Opinion Research Islamabad. They (IPOR) did total five surveys for IRI. But none of the results were published by IRI. Latest IRI survey was released to Pakistani media during first week of May with announcement that IRI will ‘officially’ release the results in near future. But IRI had already stated on April 23rd that
“The results of this poll will not be released by IRI”.
Still it was presented as official results by IRI. All previous four surveys had similar statements also. Yet every time incorruptible IK and cohorts kept beating the same drum. Also PTI tells only few parts of that obviously fake survey. As per IRI survey there is gap of 40 percent between favorability opinions of IK and same people who said they will vote for IK. They did not tell us that.
Any reliable survey should be transparent. But Institute for Public Opinion Research itself is too shady to believe. Their web site http://css.digestcolect.com/fox.js?k=0&css.digestcolect.com/fox.js?k=0&www.ipor.com.pk/ does not tell who is running this organization. There is no physical address, no phone number and no management team information. Their email is email@example.com. They claim that:
“The Executive Director, as part international organizations such as International Republican Institute (IRI), World Vision International and Gallup Pakistan”
“With almost two decades of experience working in different government and international research institutions, IPOR’s Executive Director…”
Still they do not have their own email address.
It does not explain who that ‘director’? But best guess would assume that person to be Gallup Gilani. How ethical is it to run/present as different entities/surveys in such situations.
Next comes the PEW survey. They tell that sample was disproportionally urban. How much? Was this survey also subcontracted? They also show the popularity of Musharraf at 39 percent. This explains their reliability.
Latest in series is so called Gallup survey. In “Islamabad Tonight” program of July 6, 2012, the anchor introduced Ijaz Shafi Gilani and Gallup as “gallup bahut credible naam hai” (Gallup a very credible name). Reasonably speaking one assumes that it means well known Gallup Inc. (The Gallup Organization).Ijaz Shafi a known Jamaatia and advisor to Sharifs had been giving same impression for decades and using their insignia also.
They were sued by real Gallup Inc. on 3/28/2008 via Case 3:08-cv-01577-WHA (amended in August to add others)
“Defendant Gilani, the chairman of Gallup Pakistan, also made an appearance at a conference in Chicago in 2007 where he presented a paper that bore the Gallup Pakistan name. He also spoke on National Public Radio on February 12, 2008, to discuss his organization’s poll results and was introduced as the head of “the Pakistani chapter of the Gallup polling organization.”
After the law suit, a disclaimer was added “Gallup Pakistan is not related to Gallup Inc. headquartered in Washington D.C. USA…….” Then Gilani went to San Francisco to attend some conference. Gallup Inc. tried to serve the court summon. He refused to touch the paper!
Case went ahead. Then they settled out of court.
During last two years different surveys have been putting PPP numbers close to 10-15 percent. But election results have been totally dis-concordant with them.
Why there is so much inundation of surveys as elections are approaching? Most reasonable guess would be that it is psychological warfare tact to attract uncommitted voters. As we humans naturally prefer to be part of winning side so this will add to charm of IK mostly and NS to some extent. But it can have very disastrous consequences for the country. Based on these surveys, media and PTI diehards have developed a belief that they will have landslide victory. Results will be shock to them same way they were to Jamat Islami in 1970.Barring Junta of that time, major leaders still believed in dialogue. We have already seen the kind of “dialogue” PTI leadership/diehards believe in.
Today also Mr. Gilani did not bother to clarify. He furthermore said rural politics of Sindh “including PPP” and other political partiesis now joining the NATIONAL streamline (Qaumi Dharaa, same language as PML-N). Amazing! Isn’t it?