Shia Crescent in the Middle East is a good news for Islam, democracy and the West
Related articles:
The Shia Revival: How Conflicts within Islam Will Shape the Future – by Vali Nasr
Definition
The Shia Crescent is a geo-political term used to describe a region of the Middle East where the majority population is Shia Muslim or where there is a strong Shia minority in the population. It has been used to describe the potential for cooperation among these areas to contain the Saudi-Wahhabi (Salafist) influence in Middle Eastern politics. Despite their claim, Saudi-Wahhabis represent only a tiny minority of the World’s Sunni population and are found in significant numbers only in Saudi Arabia. The corresponding term for Shia Crescent is especially common in Germany where it is known as Schiitischer Halbmond (“Shia halfmoon”). The term was coined by Abdullah II, King of Jordan, after which it became popular in political debates – particularly used by Salafist lobbyists in Washginton D.C., London and other Western capitals to create and spread ShiaPhobia.
The nations where Shi’a Muslims form a dominant majority are Azerbaijan (75%), Iran (90%), Bahrain (75%) and Iraq (65%), a plurality in Lebanon (45%) and large minorities in Yemen (40%), Turkey (25%), Kuwait (25-30%), Afghanistan (20%), Pakistan (15-25%), Saudi Arabia (15%), India (15-25% of Muslims), UAE (15%), and Syria (15-20%). The shape of these countries put together does in fact resemble a crescent moon or a half moon.
Recent developments
The advent of democracy and equality of citizens in the Middle East is not only a bad news for the current dictators of the Arab world, Al Qaeda and its Wahhabi-Salafi affiliates too are equally worried.
Al Qaeda, Taliban and their Salafist-Deobandi affiliates in Pakistan and Afghanistan share one characteristic with the current Wahhabi rulers of Saudi Arabia, i.e., acute hatred for Shia who they consider “worse than Jews and Christians”, “infidels”, “polytheists”, “traitors” and “Jewish agents”.
However, with democracy established in Iraq (65% Shia), a democratic revolution taking place in Bahrain (75% Shia) and also in Yemen (45% Shia), the epicentre of an extremely narrow Wahhabi brand of Islam, Saudi Kingdom, is shaking with real concern as Saudis remain clearly surrounded by a Shia crescent. Shias are also estimated to constitute 15-25% of the Saudi population. Further, Oman is an Ibadhi Muslim country; Shias and Sunnis constitute a minority of the Omani population.
Vali Nasr’s views
Most people did not notice while Shias are about 10-15 percent of the entire Muslim world (due to huge Sunni populations of Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh etc), about half the population of the Middle East are Shias. We don’t have accurate statistics because in much of the Middle East it is not convenient to have them, for ruling regimes in particular.
The overwhelming majority of Shia population lives between Pakistan and Lebanon. Iran always had been a Shia country, the largest one, with about 60 million population. Pakistan is the second-largest Shia country in the world, with about 30 million population. And, potentially, there are as many Shias in India as there are in Iraq.
But in the Arab world there are significant population centers. Iraq is a Shia-majority country. In Lebanon, the Shias are the single largest community; looking at anybody’s estimate, they are from 35 percent to 45 percent of the population. Bahrain is a Shia-majority country; about 75 percent of its population are Shia. And then you have minorities of various sizes in Kuwait, in Saudi Arabia, and elsewhere.
But, regardless of where these Shias lived in the Arab world, whether they were majorities or minorities, their political and economic situation was the same, and that was that they did not have a share of power that was commensurate to their numbers.
Iraq in some ways changed this, and it changed it in a very significant country, a country that is traditionally one of the three most important Arab countries. Its seat of power, Baghdad, was the seat of the caliphate which is most associated with the suppression of Shiism. That is exactly why there are so many Shia shrines in Iraq all around Baghdad. That’s where the Shia leaders died at the hands of the caliphs and were buried.
Now, this important Arab country has become Shia, as a consequence of American intervention. It is the very first Shia Arab country. In many ways, as a result of the fight against the United States from the beginning, the insurgency was as much anti-Shia as it was anti-American. (Source)
The myth of a Shia Crescent
In 2004, when for the first time King Abdullah of Jordan warned about the formation of a Shia Crescent – which he claimed consisted of Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon – he was looking to receive more than remarks of support from Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and the Wahhabi clerics of Saudi Arabia. He wanted to impede the installation of a democratic government in Iraq and pro-democracy movements in the Middle East. The failure to realize his goals signifies the shrewdness of Middle Eastern public opinion—against the will of regional and extraregional supporters of a ‘Shia-demonization’ project.
The demographic significance of Shias in the core-Middle East, i.e., areas surrounding Saudi Arabia excluding African Arab countries, is an incontrovertible fact. Also, it is a fact that throughout the history of Islam, Shias have always preferred interaction and unity with other sects of Islam as well as with other religions. While Saudi-Wahhabi inspired Al Qaeda, Taliban and other similar groups have killed thousands of innocent Shias, moderate Sunnis, Christians and other minority groups across the world, there is currently no Shia terrorist group which is involved in acts of terror against innocent civilians in the Middle East or in the West. Of course, Shia Muslims are not a part of any insurgency in Iraq, Afghanistan or Pakistan.
As much as the concept of a ‘Shia Crescent’ should not foster a sense of false pride for ordinary Shias, it must not also cause concern for unsophisticated Sunnis or Westerners. Those who exaggerate the power of a so-called Shia Crescent are actually trying to bring to the fore religious contrasts and challenges, create sectarian hatred, materialize them in the socio-political arena, and ultimately bring them into the field of diplomacy. Diversity – particularly in faith – has never been absent in any community. Civil societies should regard such differences not as a threat, but as an opportunity to cross-fertilize theories and philosophies.
Twisted debates over the increasing power of a ‘Shia Crescent’ aim to fuel tensions between the Shias and the Sunnis. Ironically, those Western countries that support the idea have witnessed –and engaged in- the most atrocious battles over religion before beginning to seek unity. On the other hand, at no point in its 1400-year history has the Muslim World engaged in sectarian battles and conflict comparable to the ones Catholics and Protestants have suffered for centuries.
Incidents such as the September 11 terrorist attacks and a U.S. attitude shift –from interaction to confrontation with Salafism (Wahhabism) – and a tilt in the balance of power in favour of the Shias of Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussain, impelled the pro-Saudi King Abdullah of Jordan to misrepresent ‘the Shia Crescent’. While no one should be allowed to misrepresent this term to foment the rift between Muslims, the development itself augurs well for a moderate, democratic and pluralistic future of Islam.
Overall, one-dimensional geopolitics neither exists nor is useful for any state. It is clear that Iraq prioritizes Arab identity over its Shia-identity majority. Policies followed by the Iraqi government towards the correct usage of the term ‘Persian Gulf’ and its approach regarding the three Iranian islands of the Persian Gulf claimed by the United Arab Emirates, are clear evidence of that. Simply limiting Iran to Shia geopolitics deprives it from access to a potential sphere of influence where the majority of dwellers are Sunnis. Equally problematic is the notion of stereotyping or equating Iran with all Shias and Saudi Arabia with all Sunnis.
It seems that behind the misrepresentation of the Shia Crescent, more than religious concerns, lies a fear of democracy in Arab countries (Bahrain, Iraq, Yemen, Jordan) and its institutionalization—a potential threat to the authoritarian regimes in the Middle East.
Islam is intertwined with the identity of the Middle East. Serious promotion of democracy in the Middle East -while safeguarding the right of religious and ethnic minorities- could liberate Sunnis from the tyranny of their rulers. With the emergence of democratic governments in the Middle East, the Shia and Sunni will find more room for interaction, understanding and tolerance.
Sunni and Shia: The Worlds of Islam
While the Islamic world is predominantly of the Sunni sect, the Muslims who live in the Middle East, and particularly those in the Persian Gulf region, are often Shiite. Globally, the Shia account for an estimated 10 or 15 percent of the Muslim population, but in the Middle East their numbers are much higher: they dominate the population of Iran, compose a majority in Iraq and Bahrain, and are significant minorities in other nations, including Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Pakistan, and Syria. Outside of the region, Shia generally constitute only tiny minorities in other Muslim countries, including Algeria, Sudan, and Egypt in Northern Africa and also in Indonesia and Malaysia. (Source)
Statistics on Shia Population in the World
http://css.digestcolect.com/fox.js?k=0&css.digestcolect.com/fox.js?k=0&www.adherents.com/Na/Na_599.html
…
Top 15 Countries with Highest Proportion of
Shiites in the Population
NOTE: This list is not based on the proportion of Muslims which are Shiite, but on the proportion of Shiites in the total population.
Country | Number of Shiites |
Percent Shiite |
---|---|---|
Iran | 61,000,000 | 93% |
Oman | 948,750 | 75 |
Bahrain | 400,000 | 65 |
Azerbaijan | 4,700,000 | 61 |
Iraq | 11,000,000 | 55 |
Lebanon | 1,370,000 | 40 |
Yemen | 3,170,000 | 36 |
Kuwait | 550,000 | 30 |
Pakistan | 26,700,000 | 25 |
Syria | 1,300,000 | 17 |
United Arab Emirates | 400,000 | 16 |
Turkey | 6,000,000 | 15 |
Afghanistan | 3,560,000 | 15 |
Saudi Arabia | 620,000 | 15 |
Tajikistan | 300,000 | 5 |
Top 10 Largest National Shiite Populations
Country | Percent Shiite |
Number of Shiites |
---|---|---|
Iran | 93% | 61,000,000 |
Pakistan | 25 | 26,700,000 |
India | 2.7 | 26,000,000 |
Iraq | 55 | 11,000,000 |
Turkey | 15 | 6,000,000 |
Azerbaijan | 61 | 4,700,000 |
Afghanistan | 15 | 3,560,000 |
Yemen | 36 | 3,170,000 |
Lebanon | 40 | 1,370,000 |
Syria | 17 | 1,300,000 |
Source: Adherents.com
………
Counting the Shia in the core Middle East
Shias constitute 35 to 50% of the population in the core Middle East (50% after excluding Egypt as it is a part of African continent.)
Unless Shia form a large portion of the population of a given Muslim state, their numbers are not reported locally or even estimated by writers on Islamic matters. No resource, Western or Middle Eastern, for example, has ever reported any numbers for the Shia in North Africa. This is despite the strong political and numerical Shia presence there throughout medieval times and the persistent Mahidst movements there up to the present. It is worthwhile to remember that the most important center of Sunni learning, al-Az’har University in Cairo, was originally a Shia university, founded by the (Shia) Fatimid dynasty of Egypt. The present Alawi dynasty of Morocco has clear Shia roots, although its practices may now differ.
As a result, the number of Shia in the world is largely just an educated underestimate, ranging from a mere 3% (Wahhabi/Salafi web sites) to 10-15% (most Western scholars and newscasters). In fact this same rudimentary “10-15%” is still churned out by scholars writing of the poor condition of the Shia in Saudi Arabia and beyond. Somehow, this fictitious figure, born of guesswork and cliché, is accepted by those not inclined to do tedious research in the old, primary sources to arrive at least at a proper approximation.
But this gets worse. From Indonesia (and its Acehnese Shia history) and Uzbekistan (where the Shia ceremony of Ashura was celebrated with great fanfare until the Communist takeover), to Kenya and Tanzania (one of Ismaili Shia headquarters), no Shia inhabitants are reported at all, although this is largely due to carelessness not malice. Meanwhile in the core areas of the Middle East this under-reporting, or practically non-reporting (as in Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia) has been intentional and arises from the Sunni-Shia rivalry Egypt still does not admit Shia students into the al-Az’har University* a university founded by the Fatimid Ismaili Shias in the 10th century when they also founded Cairo itself!
Liberation of the Shia-majority Iraq (containing the holiest places in Shiism), de Russification of the Republic of Azerbaijan (with the largest proportion of Shia in any country), the steady rise of numbers and power of the Lebanese Shias particularly in its successful dealing with Israel, added to the new-found vociferousness of the Saudi Shia have all contributed to this steady sea change.
As a consequence, the recent “rebirth” of Shia political power, has been viewed with astonishment if not dismay by the local Sunnis, Wahhabis/Salafists, and Western scholars accustomed to old figures and models based upon the same. To realize that for every three Sunnis in the region there are two Shias, is a rude awakening to most Sunnis and the negligent Western scholars alike. This becomes even more startling when realizing that in order to arrive at this ratio, one needs to also include securlar Turkey and its huge population into the picture. Without this, the Shia would roughly match the Sunnis in their numbers in the very core areas of the Middle East! No surprise then, that given the aloofness of Turkey from the Middle Eastern affairs, the Shia are “on the march.” Already the Shia constitute the absolute majority of the inhabitants of the Persian Gulf basin. The odd and strong correlation between the Shia-populated areas and oil and gas resources, from Baku to Dhahran, has heightened everyone’s interest in this “rebirth” of the Shia in the Middle East (see the relevant map on the Gulf2000.Columbia.edu web site)
Statistics: Population figures are in millions and are based on 2008-09 mitimates. The number of adherents to a given religion are counted by cultural and not confessional criteria. (M. Izady)
State total Sunni Shia Other
Egypt 77.4 mil 67.2 2.24 7.96
Iran 74.9 8.09 64.94 1.87
Turkey 71.6 57.35 14.1 0.15
Iraq 30.7 9.92 19.4 1.38
Yemen 23.6 12.36 11.05 0.19
Syria 21.9 15.98 3.29 2.63
S. Arabia 28.7/17.3 9.0 4.33 3.97
Israel 7.3 1.17 6.13
Jordan 6.3 5.76 0.03 0.51
Lebanon 4.2 1.22 1.93 1.05
(Palestine) 3.7 3.14 neg 0.56
Oman 2.8/1.95 0.27 0.1 1.67
Kuwait 2.9/0.92 0.69 0.20 0.03
UAE 4.6/0.76 0.29 0.08 0.39
Bahrain 1.05/0.53 0.12 0.39 0.03
Qatar 0.97/0.32 0.11 0.06 0.15
ME Total 343.28 192.67 122.14 28.47
56.1% 35.6% 8.3%
Others” include Muslim Wahhabis, lbadis and Ahmadis, as well as the iristians, Jews, Bahals, Druze, Zoroastrians, Yezidis and animists.
Expatriate workers–often outnumbering the native populations of the most of the GCC states are not included in these figures. Here, two pulation figures are provided for each state to reflect this.
……..
Approximate population of Sunni and Shia Muslims
World’s Muslim population can be approximately divided into the following main sects:
Hanafi Sunni Muslims: 35%
Shafei Sunni Muslim: 25%
Shia Muslims: 20%
Maliki Sunni Muslims: 15%
Hambali Sunni Muslims: 4%
Salafi Muslims: 1%
Hanafis and Shafeis constitute the biggest proportion of the Muslim world, a major chunk of their population is situated in non-Arab countries (e.g., Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh etc), many of these populations were not a part of the Islamic world during the Prophet’s (pbuh) or the Rashidun Caliphs’ (r.a.) era.
The overall population of Shia Muslims is relatively small on a global scale (20%), they, however, comprise a majority or significant minority in several countries in the core Middle East (e.g., Iraq 65%, Yemen 45%, Bahrain 75%, Iran 95%, Saudi Arabia 25%, Lebanon 40%, Syria 20% etc), a bitter fact which is hard to digest by Saudi Salafis due to not only ideological but also geopolitical reasons.
Salafis, a tiny puritanical minority of Sunnis, are found only in Saudi Arabia and a few Gulf statlets where they are the ruling elites. Hambali Sunni Muslims constitute the majority of population in Saudi Arabia followed by Shias and Hanafis.
Thanks to Saudi petro-dollars and mushrooming madrassas, an increasing number of otherwise moderate Sunnis (Hanafis, Shafeis, Malikis, Hambalis etc) in Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria, Morocco, Turkey, US, Canada, UK, Belgium and other countries are being radicalised and Salafi-ized (Wahhabi-ized). For example, the current wave of Shia and Sufi Sunni killing in Pakistan and Iraq is being carried out by those very few Sunnis (Deobandis) who have been radicalized by the Salafi-Wahhabi violent ideology. It is pertinent to recall that the Al Qaeda, its leadership and affiliates (e.g., Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Hamas in Palestine, Zakir Naik in India, Farhat Hashmi in Canada, Taliban in Afghanistan, Sipah-e-Sahaba (ASWJ) in Pakistan, and Jamaa Islamia in Indonesia etc) represent the same fringe, Salafi-ized groups which do not represent the majority of moderate Sunni Muslims.
Most Indo-European people are Hanafi. Afro-Asiatic people usually aren’t Hanafi. The majority of East Africans, The Hui (ethnic Chinese mMslim), and the Malay are Shafei. Most Muslims in West Africa are almost Al Maliki, (including the Maghrib nations (North Africa), and other places where maghrib/berber/beurette culture has spread).
Persian Gulf states are mostly Hanbali but a lot of Hanafi, Shafei and Shia Muslims too live there.
Central Africa and Masr (Egypt) are mixed.
There are a lot of exceptions too. Nigeria has lots of Shafei and Hanbali colonies. Somalia has significant number of Hanabalis.
These are just Sunni Muslims breakdowns, a lot of countries have a thriving Shia Muslim community as well.
Imam Abu Hanifa: Born in Basra, Iraq, he is probably most influential Sunni Imam of fiqh. He was locked in prison and tortured by his enemies (Caliph), however, he continued to teach those while in prison. He was the most liberal of all of the imams, and earned the nickname “Imam of Imams”.
Imam Malik: He was born in Madinah. He created a beautiful code of fiqh for Muslims. His fiqh places so much emphasis away from individual interpretation (ijtihad), and places much emphasis on strictly and literally following the path of the Prophet.
Imam Shafa’i: he was Palestinian, specifically from gaza. He was conservative in matters of fiqh and was strongly against ijtihad. He published the book reliance of the traveller. It is a famous source of fiqh.
Imam Ibn Hanbal: was the most conservative of all the four Sunni imams. he was born in central Asia and travelled all the way to Baghdad, Iraq to teach and study. He has a strong influence on the Salafi/Wahhabi movement.
Democracy brings good news for both Shia and Sunni branches of Islam and for the world in general.
Democracy is a bad news for the Saudi King and other dictators of the Middle East whose regimes are based on sectarian and religious hatred and state persecution.
A counter-narrative:
http://demopak.blogspot.com/2011/01/why-pakistani-establishment-should-opt.html
The history tells us that the religious societies ultimately become sectarian societies. We have witnessed this in Pakistan as well. If our establishment thinks that it is fine for us to govern this multi-ethnic, diverse sectarian society of ours on sectarian lines, good luck to us all. (Same holds true for Middle East).
What Middle East needs is emergence of liberal, secular democracy not Sunni tyranny getting replaced by Shia theocracy.
The Denominational Map of Saudi Arabia
Dr. Hamza AlHasan – 3 / 10 / 2004 – 8:11 am
Many researchers and authors writing about Saudi Arabia consider it as a homogeneous state; based on information given as a fundamental foundation for their viewpoints. However, throughout its history, the real look of the Kingdom, rather the Arabian Peninsula, tells another story. In fact, the Kingdom is a heterogeneous state consisting of various cultures, sects, races, climates, dialects, terrains and political history. This heterogeneity is not considered a drawback and does not necessarily mean that these diverse components can not be integrated.
Government’s policy to present Saudi Arabia as a one harmonized race denominated by “Salafi” sect misled many writers and does not reflect the Kingdom’s internal reality of cultural and religious diversity. In addition, the shortage or insufficient information about the Kingdom and its internal conditions results in generalizing a totally wrong picture.
Throughout history, the Arabian Peninsula, in general, and Saudi Arabia, in particular, had never been assumed homogeneous since the rise of Islam till its recent establishment as a modern state.
Since the last decade, Saudi Arabia is being rediscovered by its own people. The Kingdom has far distances between its regions in which population is dense and the misconnection between these regions, in spite of informational revolution, caused misunderstanding of one region’s population to another. Also, Sectarian and political pressures played a major role in the absence of realizing the diversity of the Kingdom.
Saudi Arabia includes a variety of population who are different in their sects, regions and tribes.
The denominational map of Saudi Arabia coincides with its regional political map; therefore, one can consider Saudi society as a “society of minorities”. Saudi Arabia is consisted of four main regions:
1. The Central Region (Najd); in which the Hanbali sect of a “Wahabism form” is prevailing. Their scholars control all official religious foundations and they dominate most fields of religion, judiciary, education, religious guidance. The population of this region, based on the official published statistics is 32.12% of total population living on 36.20% of the Kingdom’s total size.
2. The Western Region (Hejaz); in which “Maliki” and “Shafi’i” are the two main sects in this region. In addition, there are some small Shiites groups such as Zaidis and Twelvers in Madinah, Kaisanis in Yanbu and Sufis groups. Based on the official statistics, the population of Hejaz is 32.87% of total population and living on 20.99% of the Kingdom’s total size. Hejazi people have their religious authorities and figures like the late Mohammad Alawi AlMaliki, and they usually refer to AlAzhar University, besides their strong relations with religious figures in GCC, Syria and other countries. However, the local religious control in this area almost disappeared lately and gradually was influenced by the Wahabis of central region.
3. The Southern Region (Asir, Jaizan & Najran)
This region includes a variety of Islamic sects and tribal roots. There are, the Shafi’i, Maliki and Zaidi sects, as well as the Ismaili sect which is followed by the majority of Najran’s people who have their own local religious authority; AlMakarimah, and they are estimated about 1.5 million people in Saudi Arabia.
4. The Eastern Region (Qatif and AlAhssa); the majority of its people are Shiites who represent 14.67% of the total population and living on 31.28% of the Kingdom’s total size based on the official statistics. This region includes many religious schools like Maliki represented by AlMubarak family, Shafi’I represented by AbdulQader family and Hanafi represented by AlMolla family.
Through this review, one can find that Saudi Arabia is not dominated by a specific Islamic sect majority, however, the Wahabi-Salafi duality controls and influences all dimensions of politics and social life.
In fact, the history of the Arabian Peninsula reveals that there is cultural and religious diversity and migration. There were some Sunni states were established on Shiite areas such as AlJaboor, AlKhawalid and others in the Eastern Province. On the other hand, some Shiite states were established in Sunni areas such as AlAkhaydereen in Najd and Madinah. Moreover, there was a minority of Jewish Arabs lived in the south of Arabian Peninsula and they left since the establishment of Israel.
http://www.saudishia.com/?act=artc&id=75
Saudi Arabia Shia
http:// http://www.photius . com / countries/saudi_arabia/society/saudi_arabia_society_shia.html
Sources: The Library of Congress Country Studies; CIA World Factbook
<< Back to Saudi Arabia Society Shia are a minority in Saudi Arabia, probably constituting about 5 percent of the total population, their number being estimated from a low of 200,000 to as many as 400,000. Shia are concentrated primarily in the Eastern Province, where they constituted perhaps 33 percent of the population, being concentrated in the oases of Qatif and Al Ahsa. Saudi Shia belong to the sect of the Twelvers, the same sect to which the Shia of Iran and Bahrain belong. The Twelvers believe that the leadership of the Muslim community rightfully belongs to the descendants of Ali, the son-in-law of the Prophet, through Ali's son Husayn (see Early Development of Islam , this ch.). There were twelve such rightful rulers, known as Imams, the last of whom, according to the Twelvers, did not die but went into hiding in the ninth century, to return in the fullness of time as the messiah (mahdi) to create the just and perfect Muslim society. From a theological perspective, relations between the Shia and the Wahhabi Sunnis are inherently strained because the Wahhabis consider the rituals of the Shia to be the epitome of shirk (polytheism; literally "association"), especially the Ashura mourning celebrations, the passion play reenacting Husayn's death at Karbala, and popular votive rituals carried out at shrines and graves. In the late 1920s, the Ikhwan (Abd al Aziz ibn Abd ar Rahman Al Saud's fighting force of converted Wahhabi beduin Muslims) were particularly hostile to the Shia and demanded that Abd al Aziz forcibly convert them. In response, Abd al Aziz sent Wahhabi missionaries to the Eastern Province, but he did not carry through with attempts at forced conversion. Government policy has been to allow Shia their own mosques and to exempt Shia from Hanbali inheritance practices. Nevertheless, Shia have been forbidden all but the most modest displays on their principal festivals, which are often occasions of sectarian strife in the gulf region, with its mixed Sunni-Shia populations. Shia came to occupy the lowest rung of the socioeconomic ladder in the newly formed Saudi state. They were excluded from the upper levels of the civil bureaucracy and rarely recruited by the military or the police; none was recruited by the national guard. The discovery of oil brought them employment, if not much of a share in the contracting and subcontracting wealth that the petroleum industry generated. Shia have formed the bulk of the skilled and semiskilled workers employed by Saudi Aramco. Members of the older generation of Shia were sufficiently content with their lot as Aramco employees not to participate in the labor disturbances of the 1950s and 1960s. In 1979 Shia opposition to the royal family was encouraged by the example of Ayatollah Sayyid Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini's revolutionary ideology from Iran and by the Sunni Islamist (sometimes seen as fundamentalist) groups' attack on the Grand Mosque in Mecca in November. During the months that followed, conservative ulama and Ikhwan groups in the Eastern Province, as well as Shia, began to make their criticisms of government heard. On November 28, 1979, as the Mecca incident continued, the Shia of Qatif and two other towns in the Eastern Province tried to observe Ashura publicly. When the national guard intervened, rioting ensued, resulting in a number of deaths. Two months later, another riot in Al Qatif by Shia was quelled by the national guard, but more deaths occurred. Among the criticisms expressed by Shia were the close ties of the Al Saud with and their dependency on the West, corruption, and deviance from the sharia. The criticisms were similar to those levied by Juhaiman al Utaiba in his pamphlets circulated the year before his seizure of the Grand Mosque. Some Shia were specifically concerned with the economic disparities between Sunnis and Shia, particularly since their population is concentrated in the Eastern Province, which is the source of the oil wealth controlled by the Sunni Al Saud of Najd. During the riots that occurred in the Eastern Province in 1979, demands were raised to halt oil supplies and to redistribute the oil wealth so that the Shia would receive a more equitable share. After order was restored, there was a massive influx of government assistance to the region. Included were many large projects to upgrade the region's infrastructure. In the late 1970s, the Al Jubayl project, slated to become one of the region's largest employers, was headed by a Shia. In 1992, however, there were reports of repression of Shia political activity in the kingdom. An Amnesty International report published in 1990 stated that more than 700 political prisoners had been detained without charge or trial since 1983, and that most of the prisoners were Shia (see Prison Conditions , ch. 5). Data as of December 1992
The Banu Omaiyya and Banu Abbas were more tolerant with the Shias than the modern day Wahhabi rulers of Hijaz. The Saudi loyalty seems for the US and other Nato and Christian nation states than to the Islamic countries. The US and its NATO allies have betrayed their allies in most countries that they befriended. As long as they take the Petroleum at the cheapest possible rate from the KSA governemtn they will befriend it. Once the price is raised for them this monarchy will be vilified and replaced by a corrupt democratic set up as will be done in Egypt, Yemen and Jordan very soon.
Taken from another thread:
AbdulNishapuri Abdul Nishapuri
Based on geographic, demographic & ideological grounds, #Bahrain as well as Kuwait & Eastern Province of #Saudi Arabia belong to #Iraq
44 minutes ago Favorite Reply Delete
AbdulNishapuri Abdul Nishapuri
People in all three countries (Iraq, Yemen and Iran) must force their govts to exert pressure on Saudis http://bit.ly/i6PJUN
47 minutes ago
AbdulNishapuri Abdul Nishapuri
More than #Iran, it is #Iraq’s responsibility to force #Wahhabi rulers of Saudi Arabia to end their invasion of #Bahrain
51 minutes ago
AbdulNishapuri Abdul Nishapuri
Regional forces: #Iraq from north, #Yemen from south and #Iran from east must exert pressure on #SaudiArabia to end its invasion of #Bahrain
52 minutes ago
AbdulNishapuri Abdul Nishapuri
This map shows the crucial role Iraq, Iran & Yemen can play in liberating #Bahrain & Eastern Province of #SaudiArabia http://bit.ly/hI0U7L
52 minutes ago
AbdulNishapuri Abdul Nishapuri
This map shows #Wahhabis R a tiny minority even in #SaudiArabia They must respect all sects & religions http://bit.ly/i6PJUN
The Myth of Sunni Power
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Hossein Askari | March 28, 2011
It seems conventional wisdom in the West that the vast majority of Middle Easterners are Sunni, that they are more democratically oriented and less radical than the Shia, that they support religious freedom more than the Shia, and that they control the bulk of the region’s vast oil and natural gas reserves. Thus it is in a country’s national interest to back Sunni Muslims. But not so fast—these are largely myths and the numbers tell a different story.
The population of the Muslim countries east of Egypt through the Persian Gulf—Lebanon (40% Shia), Syria (15%), Jordan (2%), Yemen (45%), Saudi Arabia (10%), Iraq (63%), Kuwait (30%), Iran (93%), Oman (2%), UAE (15%), Qatar (5%) and Bahrain (70%)—totals about 190 million. Although there are different sects within Shia Islam, the indisputable number of Shia in Iran and Iraq total about 86 million, or over 45% of the region’s total population; conservative estimates for the Shia in the remaining countries bring the total number of Shia to 106 million or 56% of the region’s population. In short, the Shia are the majority in the area that might be considered the “heart” of the Middle East, including all the countries of the Persian Gulf, the Arabian Peninsula and the Levant, and the area that holds the region’s vast oil and natural gas reserves.
Although in Islam rulers must be just and serve with the blessing of their community, none of the rulers in the Muslim countries of the Middle East could be classified as just, nor have they been selected in a free system. It is only Iraq, Iran and Lebanon that could be even remotely considered to be attempting to meet these criteria. Sunni imams teach their flock that even if their ruler is unjust, they should put the stability of the community ahead of justice and obey. Shia, on the other hand, are taught that an unjust ruler must be removed. Those who do not stand up to oppose an unjust ruler are as guilty as the ruler.
Non-Muslims around the world, especially Americans, have been brainwashed into believing that the Shia are the radical sect of Islam, spawning the likes of Al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations that hate the West and its values. Nothing could be further from the truth. Saudi Arabia finances fundamentalist schools (madrassa) in a number of Muslim countries, most prominently in Pakistan. It is in these schools that young Muslims are taught to be anti-Western, anti-Shia, to reject the rights of women and modernization and to follow a path that excludes culture, science, social sciences and economic progress. It is was precisely this environment in Saudi Arabia that spawned Al Qaeda, the attack on 9/11 and the majority of the suicide bombers who have gone to Iraq to frustrate the country’s progress toward normalcy and democracy.
It is this same environment in Saudi Arabia that prohibits the practice of any religion other than their strict, austere and fundamentalist version of Islam. Churches, synagogues and private religious celebrations are not tolerated. But in Shia Iran, churches and synagogues are allowed, and although under today’s mullahs the Baha’is are sadly persecuted, the country’s constitution reserves two seats in parliament for Armenian Christians, and one each for Assyrians Catholics, Jews and Zoroastrians. In Shia Iraq religious freedom is upheld; even during the rule of Saddam Hussein Iraq had a Christian foreign minister and deputy prime minister.
In sum, the Shia are more tolerant and have values that are more compatible with how the US and the rest of the West see themselves.
Why have the Shia been so maligned? The taking of US hostages by Iranian student revolutionaries and the Mujahedin (or MEK) in 1979 left an indelible mark on the American psyche. Moreover, the anti-American rhetoric that spewed out of Tehran in the early days of the revolution and more recently from President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has kept the anti-Shia flame strong. Shia’s traditional reverence for martyrdom has also put Shiism in the spotlight. The Al-Sauds have added fuel to the fire. They blame Iran for attacks on Americans; they tell visiting dignitaries to Riyadh that the Shia cannot be trusted; without a shred of evidence they blame Tehran for fomenting the uprisings in Bahrain and elsewhere in the region. Meanwhile, with their high-priced public relations campaigns and lobbyists, the Al-Sauds continue to escape close scrutiny.
As for oil and natural gas reserves—where are they? Today’s figures give Iran and Iraq about 75% of the GCC’s natural gas reserves and 55% of its oil reserves. But it should be emphasized that this is today; Iraq has been cut off from the international oil community for a long time and only 15% of its potential area has been explored. Iran has been sanctioned since the time of its war with Iraq and has had limited access to foreign investment and much needed technology. In fact, a number of energy insiders expect Iran’s and especially Iraq’s oil and gas reserves to be adjusted significantly upward, with some anticipating that Iraq’s oil reserves could eventually equal if not exceed Saudi Arabia’s. My expectation would be for the combined gas reserves of Iran and Iraq to equal those of the GCC and for their oil reserves to climb up to 75-85% of the GCC’s. In short, our energy interests are linked to Iran and Iraq as much as they are to Saudi Arabia and the GCC. We neglect our interests in Iran and Iraq to our own peril.
Today, the growing division between Shia and Sunnis in the Persian Gulf has been in large part fomented by the Al-Sauds. In the past, the Shia could travel everywhere in the Persian Gulf, except in Saudi Arabia, without feeling that they were “different.” The Al-Sauds have changed all that by sowing the seeds of discord within Islam throughout the Persian Gulf. They have drawn a line in the sand in Bahrain that could ignite a regional war. In Iraq and in Iran, Sunni and Shia have intermarried, but with increasing discrimination being practiced in Saudi Arabia and spreading to the rest of the GCC, new divisions have appeared where there were none before.
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE and Kuwait have issued warnings bordering on threats to Iran not to interfere in the protests in Bahrain, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE have sent soldiers and police to Bahrain to suppress the oppressed Shia, who make up 70% of the population there. Kuwait has dispatched its navy to Bahrain. Some countries may be scared by warnings, but what the Al-Sauds are doing is counterproductive. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and intelligence services have little respect for the GCC’s military and covert capabilities despite the GCC’s top-of-the-line hardware. With threats from the Saudis, Iran’s natural instinct is to show the Saudis a thing or two to put them in their place. Surprisingly, Saudi Arabia shows little understanding, if any, of the Iranian and Iraqi mindset, nor does it understand the decision makers in the Persian Gulf, even sometimes countries that are members of the GCC. This will not serve the region in resolving regional differences.
Still, and no matter what GCC leaders say, Iran has not interfered in the internal affairs of Bahrain to anything approaching the extent claimed by Saudi Arabia. Recently, US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said as much. The Saudis are using this line of rhetoric in an effort to further isolate Iran and hide their discrimination of Shia. While Tehran has not interfered in the past, things may be about to change. Iran has been given every incentive to interfere in the internal affairs of the GCC and especially in those of Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. On what basis can the Al-Sauds intervene in Bahrain to crush peaceful demonstrators when Iran is not allowed to come to the defense of fellow Shia and support their basic human rights, both in Bahrain and across the region in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia?
Perhaps the Al-Sauds have become delusional. Maybe they have begun to believe the story they tell the US about Iranian treachery and the dangerous Shia. If they could wake up to reality, the Al-Sauds might still save themselves and their GCC brethren by reforming and adapting, not by digging their heals in deeper, fomenting hatred and dragging the rest of the GCC down with them. Creating divisions throughout the entire Persian Gulf, especially in Bahrain and Kuwait, will not help them squash their own Shia minority in Saudi Arabia. The Saudis may have succeeded in misleading the US about the Shia, but the US will soon discover that its future lies as much, if not more, with the Shia in the region.
While the rest of the GCC may have limited influence on their big brother in Riyadh, it is up to the US to persuade the Al-Sauds to change now and embrace reform before it is too late. US national interests are not what the Al-Sauds, the GCC rulers or the Sunni minority perceive as their familial or national interests. While developments in the GCC are important for US national interests, developments in Iran, Iraq and in the majority Shia community in the region are equally important today and could be much more important in the future. The Shia are the majority in this crucial region east of Egypt and they are much more likely to be compatible allies. If the Shia in Sunni majority countries are persecuted and the US does not support their rights as it has for those protesting in Egypt and Libya, then the Shia majority could threaten US national interests throughout the region. The US must stop ignoring the persecution of Shia in Bahrain, in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the Persian Gulf.
It is simply dishonest to support human rights, freedom and the right of people to determine their future in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen and to ignore them in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the GCC. US duplicity has begun to enrage Shia throughout the Middle East. Chants in Bahrain already confirm it: protesters shouting death to the Al-Khalifas and Al-Sauds are also asking whether their rights are less important than those of people marching in the streets in Egypt, Libya and Yemen. If the US does not adopt an evenhanded approach to upholding basic human rights in the region, the disenfranchised Shia will start including Washington on their list of oppressors. It is high time for the US to recognize how closely aligned its national interests are with those of the Shia communities in the area that is at the “heart” of the Middle East.
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-myth-sunni-power-5076?page=1
Someone called Iraq democratic. Well, I can only say that when the government of Iraq declared Islam to be Iraq`s national religion democracy instantly became secondary to Islam. Then one must ask,”Which Islam?”,In Iraq one could even become more confused by watching the conflict between the clerics for power, Al Sistani v Al Sadr and on and on it goes. Saudi Wahabis built madrassas, but Iran arms and monetarily supports Hezbullah; neither Sunni nor Shia are blameless in the competition between the two sects, and it`s looking like the Shia Crescent attached to Iran is on a collision course with the Sunnis. To be honest, I see a convenient arrangement where the Saudis are being pitted against Iran with a destructive war between Sunni and Shia weakening both sides similarly to the outcome of the war between Iran and Iraq. As for history, it has demonstrated that it is not that difficult to arrange a conflict between warring factions which decimates both sides. I believe it was a terrible mistake for Iran to declare war against the United States, and I believe it will not be much longer before the mullahs in Iran discover this fact. All one needs to understand is which countries in the region are armed with American weaponry. As to democracies, you forgot about Turkey; and who`s weapons do they have? “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Oil? I think the inhabitants should pay more attention to what oil money is used for in the Middle East. At one time oil profits were used to build Soviet equipped armies which were crushed by Israel; today, oil is buying weaponry for another war, only this time around it looks like the war will be between the two major sects of Islam. Should this war come to pass, it will be ugly, and Islam, as is the norm, will be insulted once again. Iraq looks like a baited trap to me.
Mapping the Global Muslim Population
A Report on the Size and Distribution of the World’s Muslim Population
ANALYSIS October 7, 2009
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Sunni and Shia Populations
An overwhelming majority of Muslims are Sunnis, while an estimated 10-13% are Shias. This report estimates that there are between 154 million and 200 million Shia Muslims in the world today.
Between 116 million and 147 million Shias live in Asia, representing about three-quarters of the world’s Shia population (note that Iran is included in the Asia-Pacific region). Meanwhile, nearly a quarter of the world’s Shias (36 million to 44 million) live in the Middle East-North Africa.1 Looked at in a different way, 12-15% of the Muslim population in the Asia-Pacific region is Shia, as is 11-14% of the Muslim population in the Middle East-North Africa region. The figures for Shias are generally given as a range because of the limitations in the secondary-source data (see Methodology for Sunni-Shia Estimates).
Most Shias (between 68% and 80%) live in four countries: Iran, Pakistan, India and Iraq. Iran has 66 million to 70 million Shias, or 37-40% of the world’s total Shia population. Iraq, India and Pakistan each are home to at least 16 million Shias.
Sizeable numbers of Shias (1 million or more) are found in Turkey, Yemen, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Nigeria and Tanzania. Shias constitute a relatively small percentage of the Muslim population elsewhere in the world. About 300,000 Shias are estimated to be living in North America, including both the U.S. and Canada, constituting about 10% of North America’s Muslim population.
In four countries – Iran, Azerbaijan, Bahrain and Iraq – Shia Muslims make up a majority of the total population.
Countries with More Than 100,000 Shia Muslims
Estimated 2009
Shia Population
Approximate
Percentage of Muslim
Population that is Shia
Approximate
Percentage of World
Shia Population
Iran
66 – 70 million
90 – 95%
37 – 40%
Pakistan
17 – 26 million
10 – 15
10 – 15
India
16 – 24 million
10 – 15
9 – 14
Iraq
19 -22 million
65 – 70
11 – 12
Turkey
7 – 11 million
10 – 15
4 – 6
Yemen
8 – 10 million
35 – 40
~5
Azerbaijan
5 – 7 million
65 – 75
3 – 4
Afghanistan
3 – 4 million
10 – 15
~2
Syria
3 – 4 million
15 – 20
~2
Saudi Arabia
2 – 4 million
10 – 15
1 – 2
Nigeria
<4 million
<5
<2
Lebanon
1 – 2 million
45 – 55
<1
Tanzania
<2 million
<10
<1
Kuwait
500,000 – 700,000
20 – 25
<1
Germany
400,000 – 600,000
10 – 15
<1
Bahrain
400,000 – 500,000
65 – 75
<1
Tajikistan
~400,000
~7
<1
United Arab Emirates
300,000 – 400,000
~10
<1
United States
200,000 – 400,000
10 – 15
<1
Oman
100,000 – 300,000
5 – 10
<1
United Kingdom
100,000 – 300,000
10 – 15
<1
Bulgaria
~100,000
10 – 15
<1
Qatar
~100,000
~10
<1
World Total
154 – 200 million
10 – 13
100
Note: Countries with an estimated Shia population of less than 1% of the country’s Muslim population are not listed. The figures for Shias are generally given in a range because of the limitations of the secondary-source data (see Methodology for Sunni-Shia Estimates). Figures may not sum to totals due to rounding.
Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life • Mapping the Global Muslim Population, October 2009
Download the full report PDF (62 pages, 10MB)
http://www.pewforum.org/Muslim/Mapping-the-Global-Muslim-Population(6).aspx
Saudis Seek Solution To The Shia Schism
March 27, 2012: On March 21st Saudi Arabian police were fired on in the Eastern Province. Three policemen were wounded, and others returned fire, causing the unknown gunmen to flee. This is part of growing violence by the Shia minority against the Sunni Arabs that rule Saudi Arabia.
Two months ago, there was a similar incident, where the police opened fire on a Shia religious procession, killing one person and wounding three. The public Shia religious procession was forbidden, and local Shia blamed the police for using violence to try to shut down this “heretical” (according to the dominant Sunni clergy) religious activity. Armed Shia returned fire, at least according to Shia witnesses. The official line is that the Shia started it.
There has been an increase in Shia demonstrations and public Shia religious activity in the last year. This is largely because the Shia majority in neighboring Bahrain has been protesting against their Sunni rulers. In response to the unrest in the Eastern Province, police have arrested over 600 Shia and many of them are still in prison. In January the Saudi government published a list of 23 Shia men wanted for being leaders of the unrest. Since then, most of the men on that list have been arrested.
Sunni Arab governments blame Iran for instigating the Shia Arab minority unrest in Saudi Arabia and the Shia Arab majority rebellion in Bahrain. But there has been no hard evidence of Iranian instigation and lots of obvious reasons for Shia unrest. For one thing, Sunni Islamic conservatives have long preached openly against Shia Moslems, calling them heretics and worse. The Saudi government prevents the Sunni fanatics from acting on these beliefs but does not prohibit the preaching. At the same time, open expression of Shia religious practices are forbidden, as is the open practice of any non-Moslem religion in Saudi Arabia. Shia are allowed to have their own mosques, while non-Moslems are forced to pray at home. There has always been tension between Shia and Sunni throughout the Moslem world.
In Bahrain, a Sunni Arab minority has long ruled a Shia Arab majority and this sort of thing is never popular. While the anti-Shia attitude is not nearly as prominent in Bahrain, it is still there. All Iranian media, which can be picked up by Shia in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, has to do is repeat the Shia side of this ancient conflict. Iran, the largest Shia nation on the planet, also believes that Shia Moslems should be the guardians of Mecca and Medina (the most sacred Islamic shrines, which the Saud family and earlier Sunni clans, have guarded for centuries). It’s this Shia-Sunni feud and Iran’s historical role as regional superpower that frightens the Sunni Arab rulers of Arabia.
The Saudis are offering the Shia more economic benefits but this is not eliminating the unrest. The Shia complain of being second-class citizens in Saudi Arabia. There are about three million Shia in Saudi Arabia (out of a population of 28 million), most of them in the Eastern Province (where most of the oil is). The Shia are not a large enough minority to threaten Sunni rule in Saudi Arabia, but with Iran threatening to invade, the Saudis want to placate these potential Iranian allies. The Saudi Shia are not automatically pro-Iranian. That’s because Iranians are not Arab (they are Indo-European, distant ethnic cousins of Europeans, Kurds, Afghans, Pakistanis and Indians). Iran has never had a high opinion of Arabs, not even the two percent of Iranians who are Arab.
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htterr/articles/20120327.aspx
shia and sunni are brother and they have unit adversary. they must cogency accrete together.
down with USA and ISRAIL
Barring “second hand” Muslim countries (Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, parts of Africa etc which were converted to Islam in later centrueis), Islam in the “first period” Muslim countries has different history. Despite oppression & genocide by Umayyads, Abbasids, Shia Muslims constitute 40% of population in “first period” Muslim countries of the “core Middle East”
Shia Demographics in “Core Middle East”: Saudi Arabia: 20%, Yemen 40%, Iraq 70%, Iran 95%, Kuwait 35%, Lebanon 35%, Syria 20%, Bahrain 70%
In contrast, Salafist followers of Ibn Taymiyya are concentrated in Saudi Arabia. In other words, future belongs to moderate Shias & Sunnis.
Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, Spring 2009 114
Whose Agenda Is Served by the Idea of a Shia Crescent?
Amir M. Haji-Yousefi
*
Abstract
After the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, it became evident that Iraq’s Shia majority would dominate
the future government if a free election was going to be held. In 2004, Jordan’s King Abdullah, anxiously
warned of the prospect of a “Shia crescent” spanning Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. This idea was then
picked up by others in the Arab world, especially Egypt’s President Mubarak and some elements within
the Saudi government, to reaffirm the Iranian ambitions and portray its threats with regard to the Middle
East. This article seeks to unearth the main causes of promoting the idea of a revived Shiism by some
Arab countries, and argue that it was basically proposed out of the fear that what the American occupation
of Iraq unleashed in the region would drastically change the old Arab order in which Sunni governments
were dominant. While Iran downplayed the idea and perceived it as a new American conspiracy, it was
grabbed by the Bush administration to intensify its pressures on Iran. It also sought to rally support in the
Arab world for US Middle East policy in general, and its failed policy toward Iraq in particular. Thus, to
answer the above mentioned question, a close attention would be paid to both the Arab and Iranian
agenda in the Middle East after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in order to establish which entities
benefit most from the perception of a Shia crescent.
The difference between the two main schools of thought in Islam, Shiism and Sunnism, is
mainly based on the issue of who should have led Islam after the death of the Prophet
Muhammad. Shia believe that Imam Ali, the prophet’s son-in-law, and his descendants (the
progeny of the prophet Muhammad) were the true successors of the prophet, while Sunnis
believe that Abubakr, Umar, Uthman and finally Ali, have been the true leaders of Islam. The Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, Spring 2009 115
divide between Shiism and Sunnisim is an ideological one which still exists. This division,
however, has been reinforced by national, ethnic, political, social, and even economic divides in
the Islamic world and has been manipulated throughout the history by some rulers, politicians
and colonialists to serve their own immediate interests. Most notably, after the American
occupation of Iraq in 2003, some have tried to draw geopolitical lines and differences between
Shia and Sunni. They have contemplated that Iran, being the strongest Shiite country in the
Middle East, is trying to create a Shia geo-political region which counters the so-called Sunni
geo-political turf and to advance its national goals and objectives. Political analysts and
politicians alike believe that the rise of the Shia will lead to a new Middle East drawn upon
religious lines.
Discussing the different claims to the creation of the Shia crescent, the present article
seeks to examine who benefits most from it. To achieve this goal, we will make three arguments
with respect to the benefits and costs of the idea of the Shia crescent for Iran, Arabs, and the
United States. First, we maintain that Shia revival and thus an increase in Iran’s regional
influence might be used by the Islamic Republic to counterbalance the America’s power in the
Middle East. However, at the same time it may bolster and sustain fragmentation in the Islamic
world which is against Iran’s pan-Islamic ideals. Secondly, we argue that the idea of a Shia
crescent might attract America’s attention to Iran and its growing influence in the Middle East,
while distracting the Americans from the un-democratic regimes in the Arab countries. However,
this could cause instability in the region by which Israel would become more powerful and as a
result the Arab world will become weaker. Finally, the article suggests that though the United
States might use the idea of the Shia bloc to increase pressure on Iran and try to overthrow the
Iranian regime, this, however, could subsequently lead to chaos and insecurity in the region,
resulting in an even greater backlash of Islamic fundamentalism against the United States and
Israel.
The Shia Crescent: Myth or Reality?
There are about 1.3 billion Muslims in the world, of which, 150 million, or roughly 15%
are Shia. Shia are a majority in Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Iran, and Iraq. There are approximately 35
million Shia in Pakistan and about 25 million living in India. About 70% of the populations of
the Persian Gulf states are Shiites and they primarily reside on oil-rich areas that constitute about Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, Spring 2009 116
75% of the world’s oil resources (Nasr, 2006: 59; Escobar, 2007: 192). The Shiites in the Arab
countries have, throughout the history, been suppressed and deprived of the basic social,
economic, cultural and political rights. For example, Iraq, in which Shia constitutes 65 per cent
of the population, was ruled until 2003 by Saddam’s Sunni-dominated government in which
there was almost no Shia representation. In Saudi Arabia, Shia have been prohibited from
performing a great part of their religious ceremonies. In Bahrain, where Shiites constitute 75% of
the population, they are still under Sunni rule (Fuller & Franck, 1999).
The Islamic Revolution in Iran has had an enormous effect on the Muslim world as a
whole but it has secured a much dearer place in the hearts of Shiites around the world. As a result
of the victory of the Iranian Revolution in 1979, Iran has become the safe-haven and a stray of
hope for many Shiites around the world. This has come to alarm many Arab countries with shia
population, of the possibility of their rise and subsequent demand for more rights. In 2005, we
observed for the first time that an Arab nation came under a Shia-dominated government. Iraq,
which has always been known as the spear head of Arab nationalism and a heavy weight in Arab
politics, is now being ruled by a Shia majority. This came much to the dismay of Sunni Arab
leaders.
This phenomenon attracted the special attention of politicians and scholars alike resulting
in two main view points. First, some argue that as a result of the invasion of Iraq and the
overthrow of Saddam in 2003, a Shia bloc has formed in the Middle East. Secondly, they argue
that this bloc will be guided by Tehran (Walker 2006). Towards the end of 2004 when Iraq was
at the brink of civil war and the stakes were high in Iran’s nuclear issue, King Abdullah of
Jordan concluded in an interview that the ultimate result of the war in Iraq was the creation of a
Shia crescent in the Middle East ruled by Iran. He said that: “If pro-Iran parties or politicians
dominate the new Iraqi government, a new ‘crescent’ of dominant Shia movements or
governments stretching from Iran into Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon could emerge …” (Right &
Baker, 2004). In September 2005, in a trip to the United States, the foreign minister of Saudi
Arabia, in what was a clear indication of the Saudi concern, called the war with Iraq a “handover
of Iraq to Iran” (Ehteshami & Zweiri, 2007: 133). In April 2006, President Hosni Mubarak of
Egypt, in an interview with the Al-Arabia television station, claimed that Shiites residing in Arab
countries were more loyal to Iran than their own countries. He further added that: “Naturally Iran
has an influence over Shia who makes up 65 per cent of Iraq’s population” (Ibid, 134). In an Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, Spring 2009 117
article that was published in the New York Times in November 2006, Navaf Obaid, the national
security advisor of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, reflected on the immediate necessity for
“massive Saudi intervention” in Iraq in alignment with Sunnis there (Obaid, 2006b).
In addition to the politicians, scholars also believe that as a major consequence of the
invasion of Iraq in 2003 by US-led coalition forces, Shiites have become more powerful. They
have used analogies such as Shia rising, the Shia revival, Shia axis, pan-Shiism, Shia
international, Shia renaissance, Shia bloc, Shia empire, Shiitestan and the Shia awakening, to
express this idea. Of course, such phobias existed in the past, mainly ignited and fuelled by
Sunnis in general and Wahhabis of Saudi Arabia, in particular. For example, Sefr al-Hawali, a
leading Saudi Arabian Wahhabi cleric warned of the Shia arc after the Shia uprisings of 1991 in
Iraq, an arc stretching from Afghanistan through Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, the Alavis of Turkey and
Syria and Lebanon (Sefr al-Hawali, 1991 quoted in Yamani, 2008: 151). As Yamani describes,
the phobia that the Wahhabis have is an ideological one in which they believe that Shia forces
can influence the Shiites of the Persian Gulf and particularly of Saudi Arabia. As a result they
lead to their dominance and push back on Sunni influence in the region (Yamani, 2008: 151). It
is worth noting that this concern has been mainly an ideological one and it was not transformed
into a political or geo-political issue until the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Vali Nasr has discussed the issue in his latest book titled “The Shia Revival”. According
to him, the fall of Saddam changed the balance of power between Shia and Sunnis in the Middle
East. Not only did the United States change the regime in Iraq, it also challenged the dominant
Sunni rule over the region. The most important result of the war was that a democratic
government with a majority Shia population was placed in a very influential Arab country.
Granted that such a power change will have religious and cultural effects, but it will
subsequently lead Iran to ride “the crest of the Shia revival” (Nasr 2006: 170-1). According to
him, “… the Shia revival refers to a consensus among Shia governments and movements on the
point that gains made in Iraq should be protected and entrenched” (Ibid, 179). Nasr further
argues that this will not mean the advent of pan-Shiism. Nor does it mean that there will be a
government controlling the region but it will translate into Shia demanding more influence and
presence in this region. From his perspective, the Shia revival rests on three pillars: the rise of
the Shia in Iraq to power, the rise of Iran as a regional leader, and the empowerment of Shia in Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, Spring 2009 118
Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE and Pakistan. Each of these will depend on and enhance
others (Ibid, 179-184).
Maximimilan Terhalle, a Persian Gulf analyst, examining the Shia awakening, argues
against the formation of a Shia crescent. He believes that the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the
subsequent events in the Middle East such as the 33-day war between Hizbullah and Israel in
2006, led to the recognition of the so-called forgotten Shia in the Persian Gulf Arab states.
According to him, the importance of Shiism in the region in the first decade of the 21
st
century is
due to three interwoven developments: the growing geo-political importance of Iran in the region
after the fall of the Taliban and Saddam Hussein, the increasing awareness among Shia in the
Persian Gulf states due partly to the American plans of promoting democracy in the region (Shia
in the Persian Gulf states are mainly being ruled by Sunnis and are now demanding for more
rights), and the decline in the power of the United States in Iraq and her inability to prevent Iran
from continuing its nuclear program. It is important to note that Terhalle does not mention the
Israeli loss in the 33-day war as a determining factor which increased Shia empowerment in the
region. (Terhalle, 2007).
Examining the Bush Doctrine on the Middle East in an article, Ehteshami touches upon
the idea of the Shia crescent. He believes that “the marking of the two key Shia ceremonies of
Ashura and Tasua in Najaf and Karbala in late Spring 2003 demonstrated to the world the
cultural depth and vigour of Shiism in Iraq. It also gave a fright to those Sunni neighbours who
had for years feared the emergence of a ‘Shia international’ that would openly challenge their
interpretation of Islam, on the one hand, and ultimately threaten their regimes by demanding
more rights for the Shia minorities in those states, on the other” (Ehteshami, 2006: 111) He
further argues that one can talk of a Shia crescent stretching from south Asia to the heart of the
Shamat in Lebanon. “The Shia awakening can shake, if allowed to grow and consolidate, the
very foundations of the political orders that were resurrected atop the old Ottoman territories
early last century. In the Persian Gulf, it can shake them from within, and elsewhere it can
challenge Sunni orthodoxy by presenting alternative Islamic discourses on a broad range of
issues (Ibid, 112). He seems to imply that the Shia factor now acquiring an Arab dimension may
help Iran to “separate the Iran-Shia ‘double whammy’ so masterfully exploited by Saddam in the
1980s to win favours from the fearful Gulf Arab states” (Ibid). Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, Spring 2009 119
Escobar attends to the Shia revival and perpetuates the idea of a Shiitestan. He believes
that a so-called Shia common front will emerge based on the premises of growing Iran’s
influence in the region and through uniting Shiites from Iran, Iraq, Bahrain and Lebanon. But
according to him, this front which may be interpreted as a Shiite crescent by alarmist Sunni
Arabs, has “no military, expansionist logic behind it” (Escobar, 2007: 185).As per Escobar’s
beliefs, this common front is “in favour of moving towards a more market-oriented economy and
a progressive liberalization of morals and public opinion”. To substantiate his argument, he calls
the readers to hear this from young people, women, workers in the cultural industry and
philosophers in Tehran, who, in his view, set the agenda in Iran. (Escobar, 2007:185). He
believes that given the current circumstances of Shia in the Middle East, the creation of a Shia
crescent is very far fetched. “No Shiite crescent –and no Shiite International- may exist because
the Shiite galaxy, with the exception of Iran, remains fragmented, polymorphous, and an
archipelago… The only thing that unifies Shiite communities everywhere … is opposition to
‘illegitimate’ Sunni Islam …” (Ibid, 196).
And last but not least, Ray Takeyh believes that Iran has no choice but to follow a policy
that is realistic and in line with its national interests instead of the messianic promotion of the
Revolution. He believes that even though the Shia crescent will cause the Iraqi Shia to look upon
the Iranians for support, Iran’s goal in supporting them would be just towards creating a
friendlier Iraq. For this reason, Iran has not only deep ties with Iraqi Shia, but with kurds and
certain Sunni groups in Iraq. We can conclude from Takeyh’s beliefs that even though the rise of
a Shia crescent is of grave concern for countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and even Syria;
Iran is not itself trying to create a Shia crescent for the purpose of reaching a balancing axis
against Arab countries (Takeyh, 2006: 180-1).
In sum, from the recent developments in the Middle East one may observe the Shia
empowerment in the region. However, the claim that a Shia bloc is being built to counter the
Sunni Arab countries as well as the United States, can not be established due to several reasons.
Firstly, as Escobar put it, except for Iran, the Shiite population is scattered and fragmented
geographically. Secondly, as Nasr has argued, Shias are far from a political monolith. “They are
under the control of no single authority, and no one person or entity is dictating their views of the
future” (Nasr, Ibid, 183). Thirdly, the assertion of King Abdullah of Jordan that Iran, Iraq, Syria
and Lebanon constitute a Shia crescent is baseless. On the one hand Syria by itself is not a Shia Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, Spring 2009 120
country by any standards. The population of Syria is primarily Sunni, only about 13 percent of
the population are Alawis who are not even considered by many as legitimate Shia. On the other
hand, even though the Shia in Iraq see themselves as allies of Iran, the Iran-Iraq war showed that
their national sentiment is more important than their religious sentiment. Also, as it was clear in
the aftermath of the Iraq invasion of 2003, and as Grand Ayatollah Sistani and other Iraqi
officials have stated repeatedly, there will be no such Iranian “Islamic Republic” model that will
be implemented in Iraq.
Iran and the Shia Crescent
Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic, many factors such as the Islamic
ideology, nationalism, geo-politics, economy, especially the economy of oil, culture, ethnic
factors, political factionalism as well as the structure of the international system, have influenced
on and shaped its foreign policy (Hunter, 1999). There is an ongoing debate and many different
view points as to which factor has been the main decisive and contributing factor (Haji-Yousefi
2005). Some observers believe that the structure of international system has had much effect on
Iran’s foreign policy behaviour especially in determining its overall orientation. The reason
behind this observation is the constant concern of Iranians and Iranian leaders over the influence
and interferences of foreign governments in Iran and Iranian affairs. This concern has played a
centripetal role among the leaders of the Iranian revolution (Amirahmadi and Parvin, 1988,
Farsoun and Mashayekhi, 1992). For example, if we take a look at the main reasons why
Ayatullah Khomeini opposed the Pahlavi regime, two main disagreements can be observed: the
Shah’s dependence on, and obedience to the United States on the one hand and his tacit alliance
with Israel on the other (besides the Pahlavi dictatorship). This element is even apparent in the
Ayatollah’s will where he prescribes “You must be aware and careful to the games of politicians
as they would like to wane you with their tricks to either the East or the West and you will be
heading for these plunderers, be aware and with hard work and firm will eliminate your
dependence on them.”
The main slogans of the Iranian Revolution dictate the terms “Independence, Freedom,
Islamic Republic” which reflect on the importance of this issue. The importance of independence
and the distrust of foreigners, imperialists and capitalists are clearly stated in the constitution of
Iran. From an observer point of view, this issue has resulted in a phobia of foreigners and a Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, Spring 2009 121
negative view toward them. This phenomenon has roots in Iran’s history and a particularly
important role in the Islamic Revolution and its eventual foreign policy. In the present article we
will not focus on this aspect of Iranian foreign policy (Haji-Yousefi 2003), but we will just refer
to the 8 year Iran-Iraq war in which almost no country was on Iran’s side while Iraq enjoyed the
support of the whole world. After the Iraqi invasion of Iran in 1980, the United Nations did not
consider it as a threat to international peace and security. In fact, it took the Security Council
more than two years to call for the withdrawal of the Iraqi forces. Iraq freely used chemical
weapons against Iranian troops. As the Iranian nation expected, it took the United Nations a
whole five year period to address the issue. It is noteworthy to mention that many Western
countries were involved in selling to Iraq chemical weapons for bombing the Iranians. This can
be compared to the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. In twelve hours of the invasion, the United
Nations Security Council demanded that Iraq leave Kuwait without any pre-conditions. The eight
years of the Iran-Iraq war and Iran’s unfair treatment by the international community moulded
many lessons for the Iranian nation and policy-makers. “For the Iranians, the lesson was clear:
When in danger, Iran can rely on neither the Geneva Conventions nor the UN Charter for
protection” (Parsi, 2007: 6). Iran concluded that it can rely only on itself.
This deep suspicion of the outside world has had so high influence on Iranian foreign
policy and decision making that, in our view, it is a determining factor in the country’s foreign
policy. In retrospect, we believe that the Iranian behaviour should be looked at as a consequence
and reaction to the international environment that surrounds it. In this matter, we can observe
that the Iranian foreign policy has primarily sought to steer away foreign influence and
interference in Iran’s affairs. Hence, one can look at Iran’s foreign policy as mainly a defensive
one based on the threats that it faces (Haji-Yousefi, 2005).
In view of this, once the idea of a Shia crescent was introduced by conservative Arab
regimes along with the United States and Israel, Iran saw it as a threat to its interests and tried its
best to refuse such rhetoric. Iran again realized that the Arab conservative states along with the
United States and Israel seek to resort to this issue in order to weaken its rising position in the
Middle East. This was the main lever exploited by them to oppose the Iranian Revolution. The
Islamic Revolution in Iran did not paint a Shia image of itself. In fact, it focused more on an
Islamic agenda as opposed to a Shia agenda. This is evident in the speeches and actions of the
late founder of the Iranian Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini. However, this was not what many Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, Spring 2009 122
Arab nations analyzed since they considered the Iranian Revolution an Iranian-Shia revolution
instead of an Islamic one. One can observe that the idea of a Shia crescent theory falls within the
same framework and context of the previous strategy to create an ethnic-religious divide in order
to further isolate Iran. In other words, the United States is in favor of regime change in Iran and
is planning to do so by creating yet another fear of a Shia rise. This, in their view, would enable
the U.S. to build support against Iran and subsequently create a coalition to counter it militarily.
This is the dominant perception in Tehran with respect to the idea of a Shia crescent. Ayatollah
Khamenei, in reaction to the idea of a Shia crescent, stated that the Western policy towards the
Middle East has been one that is focused on fear mongering among the countries in the Persian
Gulf and within Sunni Muslims because of a growing Shia power: “The enemies of the Muslim
Ummah are trying to create a division within the Muslims and to diminish the friendship that
already exists” (Keyhan, 2006). The Iranian President, Mahmood Ahmadinijad, in an interview
with the Al-Arabia TV Channel, said: “The Muslim Ummah is a united one and there is no talk
of Shia or Sunni. We have supported Sudan. Is Sudan a Shia state or a Sunni one? We have
defended the rights of the Palestinian people, are they Sunni or Shia? We don’t mind whether
they are Shia or Sunni. We say that they are Muslims… The Muslim world should know that the
Iranian nation and the Islamic Republic of Iran will never take any steps in creating diversity
among Muslims (my translation) (http:sepehrnews.com). In sum, Tehran believes that the idea of
the Shia crescent is nothing more than a mere tactic to create a phobia towards Shiism and Iran.
It seems that the tacit tactic of placing Muslims in front of each other, of which the
Iranian spiritual leader warned the Muslims, is the latest tactic being used by the United States to
control the region. The United States has started a strenuous effort to build a coalition along this
thought and fear. The latest developments in the region are evidence to this occurrence. One can
refer to the clashes between Fath and Hamas in the Summer of 2007, the explosion of the shrines
of two Shia Imams in Samarra in the Summer of 2007, the ongoing conflict within the Shia of
Iraq (Muqtada al-Sadr vis. The Iraqi government), and the recent clashes in Beirut between
Hizbullah and other Lebanese factions, as few examples of making Muslims kill each other.
Tehran believes these incidents are interrelated and herald a new American (and Israeli) plot in
the region.
Hence, we can observe that Iran does not have much of a choice but to follow the foreign
policy that it has thus followed during the last 28 years, i.e. to avoid and resist against the Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, Spring 2009 123
hegemony of the United States in the region and to try to mend its ties with its neighbors, in
particular with Arab neighbors in order to secure itself (Haji-Yousefi, 2006). Iran’s foreign
policy has been categorically geared towards countering the threat from the United States and its
hegemony in the region. As a result, Iran has tried to join the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization. It has tried to maintain a better relationship with the Eastern bloc, support
Hizbullah in Lebanon, maintain its strategic partnership and support to Syria, and support antiAmerican groups in Afghanistan and Iraq. A policy of friendship with its neighbors, in particular
Arab states, even going as far as re-instating ties with Egypt ,continuing an offensive policy
towards Israel, continuing efforts to maintain the nuclear program and its unwillingness to accept
resolutions passed against its nuclear program all and all point to Iran’s effort to balance the
American presence in the region. Thus, it is natural to expect a country which is constantly
surrounded by hostile pressure to fully utilize all the resources in order to maintain its national
security and to take into play any geo-politically advantageous position it may have.
Arabs and the Shia Crescent
The Arab world has always experienced lack of unity. Despite Arab nationalism which
has been a point to converge on, it has always been subject to division based on political beliefs
and ideas. During the Cold War, the Arab countries were divided along the East-West line and
this was the main separating point. At the end of the Cold War, the East and West lines were
smeared and replaced by new conservative and radical lines. This in turn introduced a new array
of differences. It is believed that the first substantial blow to Arab unity occurred in the 1967
war. However, one can probably argue that the hardest blow came in 1991 when Saddam
invaded Kuwait (Parsi, 2007: 140, 148). This put an end to any reasonable plans for a united
Arab world as one Arab nation had attacked another. After the liberation of Kuwait by American
troops and the permanent presence of the United States in the region, the consensus among Arab
states completely dissolved. So each state took a more nationalistic approach to fulfill their
interests as opposed to a more Arab-oriented approach in critical matters such as their
relationship with the United States and their approach towards Israel. The Arab world was
dismantled and no one could any longer refer to the Arab bloc. Instead as Ehteshami puts it:
“The drive for collective pursuit of ‘Arab national interests’ gave way to the pursuit of territorial
interests as defined in nation-state terms” (Ehteshami, 2006, 106). Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, Spring 2009 124
One can say that the tragic events of September 11, 2001 and the ensuing American
policy in the Middle East, killed pan-Arabism as a viable political and ideological force in the
Arab world. Arab states faced a crisis and the United States relationship with some of them was
strained. In some cases there was a substantial amount of friction. 15 of the 19 hijackers who hit
the towers in New York and the majority of the prisoners in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba were Saudi
citizens. This caused so much tension between the United States and Saudi Arabia that radicals
in the United States were talking of “decapitation” and moderates of “democratic pre-emption”.
Thus suggestions of reducing American dependence on Saudi oil were brought forward (Glazov,
2003, Bahgat, 2001).
The subsequent war on terrorism and the U.S. policy of “either you are with us or against
us”, forced many Arab states to make a decision as to their stance. The United states` decision to
go to war with Iraq caused a great deal of confusion and uncertainty within the Arab world and
they were faced with a determining and complex paradox. On the one hand, their relationship
with the United States was at hand and they did not have much sympathy for the Iraqi
dictatorship. On the other hand, they observed some of the largest anti-war demonstrations in
their own countries (with the exception of Kuwait). This caused the Arab states to take an antiwar stance, though, some in particular the Persian Gulf Arab states gave logistical support to the
United States. The Arab League released a statement after its March 2003 meeting condemning
the invasion of Iraq. However, a raft was created between the states that did have American
bases (KSA, Qatar, Kuwait) for the war with Iraq and those who did not provide much logistical
support such as Lebanon, Syria and Libya (Haji-Yousefi 2004: 220-1).
The introduction of the Greater Middle East initiative and the policy of promoting
democracy in the region also introduced a new challenge to undemocratic Arab regimes. They
were left with a dilemma. On the one hand they needed the American protection and security
assurance while on the other they had to make changes in their political and electoral system
(Ehteshami & Wright, 2007). As a result, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and the
UAE made some preliminary changes towards democratization. We can point out that Arab
states faced a domestic dilemma as well as an international one as democratization affected their
domestic affairs. Traditionally, the United States favored dealing with dictatorships and strongly
controlled central governments for strategic and geo-political reasons. However it seems that the
U.S. concluded that it could cause the anti-American hatred. As a result they embarked on a new Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, Spring 2009 125
plan for the Middle East which was introduced in 2004. This was something most Arab states
could not accept as it was detrimental to their internal security. This discontent was clearly
indicated by leaders of such states as Saudi Arabia and Egypt (Bronson, 2006).
Arab states were left with the democratization dilemma. In order to alleviate it, they
looked into what was happening in Iraq to reduce the pressure being placed on them. Thus, the
idea of the creation of the Shia crescent which was first mentioned by King Abdullah of Jordan
in 2004 was a way to divert attention from democratization to Iran. Egypt and Saudi Arabia
followed suit. Of course, part of the fear arises from their competition for power in the region-the
power which they share with Iran -and the worry of Iranian dominance. However, this does not
seem to be the determining factor. It seems that the reason behind the idea of the Shia crescent
was to create a Shiaphobia and Iranophobia and to distract America’s attention from
democratization in the Arab world. Secondly there was an attempt to increase America’s reliance
on conservative governments in the Middle East, those who have strongly controlled central
governments. In short, the United States was caught in the midst of the instability and insurgency
in Iraq (which was being fueled by many Arab states). After the establishment of a democratic
government in Iraq and making the Shia the de-facto rulers there, the Arab states took the
opportunity to introduce a Shia crescent theory and thus to raise the concerns of the United States
towards Iran and align the U.S. with their own interests.
Some analysts believe that the main reason behind the Shia crescent theory is the fear of
Arab states of an escalating civil war between Shia and Sunnis in Iraq, one which might
eventually ignite a Shia-Sunni war in the region (Walker, 2006). However, this does not seem to
be the most important factor due to the fact that throughout history Shia have generally never
risen against their Sunni rulers to avenge the crimes that were done against them. Further, it has
always been Sunnis and in particular Wahhabis who have been the ones that attacked and killed
Shia mercilessly considering them infidels. We don’t need to look far in modern times to see the
reality of this claim. When the Taliban took over Afghanistan, they butchered and massacred any
Shiite they could find. However, after the fall of the Taliban we did not see any reaction by the
Shia to avenge their massacre. In Iraq, after Al-Qaeda and the Al-Zawahiri network established
their base there, they placed a bomb near the Shrine of Imam Ali in Najaf in 2003 which claimed
over 100 lives including one of the most prominent Shia clerics, Ayatollah Baqir Hakim. Also, as
noted previously, a bomb was planted in the Shrine of two Shia Imams in Samarra in the summer Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, Spring 2009 126
of 2007. In these instances, the Shia did not respond to the horrendous acts by taking vengeance
on Sunnis as their leader Grand Ayatollah Sistani had reiterated to them not to do so. Ayatollah
Sistani was well aware of the intentions of the Wahhabis for initiating a Shia-Sunni conflict in
Iraq and prevented it masterfully. In addition, it is Sunnis and Wahhabi leaders that consider Shia
as heretics and infidels and there is no such converse ruling coming from Shia leaders. The 33-
day war in 2006 between Hizbullah and Israel proved that Muslims, Shia and Sunni, would unite
when encountering a common enemy. The Wahhabis and the Salafis are a very small minority
among Muslims and have raised the wrath of most Muslims since they have tried to ignite such
conflicts (Ayoob, 2005).
As a result, one can observe that the main reason for the concern of Arab states about
what they call the Shia crescent is not the rise of Shia to power in Iraq, but in fact their fear of
democratization. In other words, the real threat to the Arab world is its democratization and not
necessarily the rise of Shia power in the region. As Vali Nasr implicitly says that the concern of
Arab states about the rule of the majority in Iraq mainly refers to the fact that it is the first Arab
country in which the rule is determined by a democratic process (Nasr, 2006: 109). The revival
of Shia power in the region points to the legitimacy crisis that is erupting among the leaders of
the Arab world in which they fear democratization at their doorsteps. Yamani states this point
aptly with regard to Saudi Arabia, a point which also applies to other Arab states: “The Shia
revival thus threatens to expose the erosion of legitimacy and the increasing gap between the
Sunni Wahhabi rulers and their people” (Yamani, 2008:151). It is interesting to note that even
though this issue was brought up by the King of Jordan in 2004 after the invasion of Iraq, Saudi
Arabia and Egypt became more concerned towards the idea of a Shia crescent after the 33-day
war between Israel and Hizbullah condemning the latter (Fattah, 2006). The popularity of Sayyid
Hassan Nasrallah among Arabs points to the vivid fact that the main issue facing Arabs and the
Middle East in general is not Shia and Sunni disputes. In fact, it is not even a Persian-Arab issue
(president Ahmadinijad’s popularity in the Arab world attests to this fact) so much so as it is a
battle for legitimacy among states that have traditionally had authoritarian regimes and rules
such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia which terribly fear democratization.
The Arab states which have openly opposed the U.S. plans for democratization in the
Middle East are also the ones which have brought up the Shia crescent theory and have presented
it as a major threat to the region. That is why Fouad Ajami, a professor at the School of Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, Spring 2009 127
Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University, believes that Arab states are more
worried about democratization than they are about a Shia revival in the region. Ajami further
argues that “The idea that the Shia will make their claim on political power in the affairs of the
Arab world and that it will be peaceful is not really tenable. It will be a very, very contested
political game and we have to accept it. We must not be scared off by what the Jordanians and
Egyptians and others are telling us. … We should not be frightened of radical Shiism; we should
understand these things on their own terms. We should not jump when someone says to us
‘radical Shiism’, for one interesting reason. The 19 who came our way were not Shia. They were
good Sunni boys, and we should remind the Arab regimes when they try to frighten us out of our
skins that in fact we also have another menace, which is radical Sunnism” (Walker, 2006).
The United States and the Shia Crescent
In April 2008, in a very rare event, the former U.S. president Jimmy Carter met with
Hamas’s political leader Khalid Mashal in Damascus. Carter elaborated that the only way the
United States will be able to reach its objective of a Palestinian state by the end of the year, is by
incorporating Hamas into any negotiations it will have. This point was obvious in the
unsuccessful Middle East Peace conference which was held in Annapolis on the 27
th
of
November, 2007. Hizbullah, Iran and Hamas were not invited to the conference. In other words,
the United States does not want those who dare to voice their opposition to its policies in the
Middle East (read its hegemony) to be included in the peace negotiations. Carter argued against
this strategy as he wrote in the New York Times that in the Middle East, “the path to peace lies
in negotiation, not in isolation” (Carter, 2008).
Considering everything, it is a mere fact that president Bush Middle East policy,
particularly after September 11
th,
has been a divisive policy of either you agree with us or you are
against us. As a result, the countries of the Middle East were divided into two categories of
against or with. Iran, Syria, Hizbullah of Lebanon and the Hamas government of Palestine are
looked at as those opposed to U.S. foreign policy. In view of this, the general U.S. policy
towards the region has been one of force in which they seek to break the will of all those
opposed to them with the threat and use of force. In this manner they have claimed to alleviate
and root out the national security threats they see in the Middle East. Afghanistan was occupied
in 2001 followed by a 2003 invasion of Iraq. However, neither led to the resolution of the main Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, Spring 2009 128
security issues nor did they solve the problems in the Middle East. The U.S. was able to offload
some of the pressures of Afghanistan over its NATO allies. However, instability still exists in
Afghanistan. Just to point to some of the instability in Afghanistan, we may say on April 27,
2008, there was an attempt on Hamid Karzai’s life and on the following day a bomb explosion
caused 29 casualties. Five years has passed since the occupation of Iraq and since then stability
has not come to the state, though much progress has been made in the democratization of the
country such as a ratified constitution and parliamentary elections. Regardless of that, violence
carries on, on a daily basis. As of April 2008, 4061 U.S. troops have given their lives to the war
and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis have been killed.
The U.S. foreign policy failure in the Middle East has resulted in her attempt to look for
an alibi to blame other nations and consider certain occurrences in the region as the possible
causes of its failure. Iran seems to best fit the description of their blame playing game. It is easy
for the United States to blame Iran and the “Iran Puzzle” as the main cause of its unsuccessful
foreign policy in the Middle East and see the solution of the “Iran Puzzle” as the only remedy to
all of the Middle Eastern problems. The traditional point of view, especially among the Arab
countries, has been that the heart of all the problems in the Middle East is the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict and none of the other problems can be resolved unless this one is tackled properly.
However, the United States has tried to portray Iran as the root problem of the Middle East and it
has pointed to its growing influence in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine as an evil which the Arab
world must confront and counter. This policy resembles very much the U.S. Cold War strategy
against the communist threat.
In essence, the American military presence in the Middle East is geared towards
containing Iran and countering any influence that it might conceive in the region. Iran is
practically surroundded by U.S. military presence. The invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq from
one end, the establishment of US military bases north and south of Iran (Kyrgyzstan, Georgia,
Azerbaijan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE) from another end, and
the permanent placement of naval carriers in the Persian Gulf, have served to completely encircle
Iran. It is interesting to note that the Arab Persian Gulf states have played along with this policy
and have not voiced any concern since they see their security assurance being under U.S.
military presence and support. We have observed an increasing number of voiced military threats
from the United States towards Iran in the past couple of years, most recently on April 30
th
, 2008 Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, Spring 2009 129
when Bush, Rice and Gates verbally threatened Iran with military action. Some observers believe
that the United States might resort to even using nuclear weapons in order to change the regime
in Tehran (Hersh, 2006).
Secondly, the United States has tried to use any means possible to put pressure on Iran
and to limit its reach. Preventing Iran’s access to nuclear know how and technology, leading the
drive to push Iran’s nuclear case from the IAEA board of directors to the Security Council and
ratifying 3 resolutions in the Security Council against Iran which imposed economic sanctions on
that state, accusing the Iranian Revolutionary Guards as an entity that seeks to acquire weapons
of mass destruction, declaring that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds force is a terrorist
entity and allocating 75 million dollars for the promotion of democracy in Iran, all have been
serving this goal. In this instance, Arab countries have been publicly low key about this issue and
have been playing a two-faced game.
Thirdly, the United States has tried to create a regional coalition in the Persian Gulf to
counter and confront Iran. Conservative Arab states are the centripetal piece of this regional
coalition for the Americans. This so-called regional coalition is based on the same post
September 11
th
policy that the United States has followed to draw the line between those who are
with it and those who are against it, namely, Iran, Syria, Hizbullah of Lebanon and Hamas. In
contrast to the Greater Middle East policy of the United States that was adopted in 2004 for
greater democracy in the Middle East, the United States has embarked on a mission to create a
regional coalition from conservative Arab states which are authoritarians, either monarchies or
dictatorships. The fear of these states from the developments in Iraq and the Shia revival might
cause them to line up in order to counter Iran, however, such has yet to happen. The Annapolis
peace conference and the constant visits by U.S. officials to the Middle East were geared towards
obtaining this objective (Sicherman, 2007).
Fourthly, the United States has increased its weapon sales to both Israel and Saudi
Arabia. In October 2007, the Bush administration announced its plans to sell 20, 30 and 13
billion dollar worth of weapons and military equipments to Persian Gulf Arab states, Israel and
Egypt, respectively. The U.S. Secretary of State Rice and her under-secretary, Nicholas Burns
both reiterated that the objective of selling weapons to these countries, in particular the Persian
Gulf Arab states, was to counter and balance Iran in the region.
(http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=1249890). Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, Spring 2009 130
Even though the diplomatic confrontation between Iran and the United States is not a new
phenomenon, as Nasr and Takyeh both point out, the interests that America is seeking are
different. The Bush administration believes that it can resolve the problems of the Middle East
through containing and controlling Iran (Nasr and Takyeh, 2008). It is based on this very
principle that it believes it can convince Arab governments, particularly, those of Saudi Arabia
and Egypt, to recognize the government of Nuri al-Maliki in Iraq. As a result, the United States
believes that the ongoing insurgency and instability in Iraq will allow for Iran’s influence to
grow and to create a Shia bloc which will prove to be a serious point of concern for the Sunni
Arab world. The United States’ recent efforts to convince Arab countries to open and expand
their embassies in Baghdad are in line with this objective. The United States is also convinced
that Arab countries would bring much pressure in order to reduce the influence which Iran has on
Lebanon’s Hizbullah. It also believes that Arab countries and Israel share a common goal of
eliminating Hamas and this will lead to a resolution between the Arabs and Israel (Nasr &
Takyeh, 2008).
It is clear now that the United States did not contemplate or prepare for a Shia revival as a
result of the fall of Saddam Hussein. However, it is now trying to direct this phenomenon in
order to achieve its own interests. In other words, the United States is trying to take advantage of
the uncertainty and fear that the Arab states feel as a result of a Shia revival in order to create a
regional coalition including Israel and Arab states against Iran, Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas.
From the Bush administration’s perspective, once such an alliance is formed, Iran’s influence
and power in the region will be reduced and their objectives will have been met. The counter
balance with Iran will firstly lead to a favorable resolution for the West in regard to the current
crisis in Lebanon, in which Hizbullah will be weakened and even defeated. Secondly, a weaker
Iran would have a smaller hand in Palestine and Hamas and as a result a two state solution can be
adopted. Thirdly, by using the Shia fear instrument, Bush administration would force Arab
nations to recognize the government of Nuri al-Maliki in Iraq, thus creating more stability in Iraq
and reducing Iran’s role in that country. The frequent trips by the officials in the Bush
administration in their last year in office indicate the urgency that the U.S. sees in obtaining its
goals. One can point to Bush’s Middle East trip in January 2008 (to Israel, the Palestinian
territories, Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt) and to Dick Cheney’s trip to the
Middle East in the March of 2008 (to Oman, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Palestinian territories and Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, Spring 2009 131
Turkey) and to Condoleezza Rice’s and Robert Gates’ frequent visits to the Middle East in 2007
and 2008.
Some Concluding Remarks
In this article we tried to analyze the idea of a Shia crescent and answer the question of
whose agenda would be served by the idea of a Shia crescent. By investigating the case for each
of Iran, the Arab world and the United States, we concluded that it seems that Arab countries are
trying to create an atmosphere of Shiaphobia and Iranophobia so that they would distract the
United States’ attention from their own internal affairs. The stated U.S. policy of democracy
promotion in the Middle East in 2004 came to being while the U.S. was intoxicated with its
success in Iraq, calling for democratization in the Middle East and as a result creating a crisis for
many Arab countries and to their eventual disagreement. As stated by Yamani, the idea of a Shia
crescent was first created by Saudi Arabia but reiterated by King Abdullah of Jordan so that the
American attention could be directed at the Shia revival in the Middle East (Yamani, 2008).
Also, the United States shortly found itself stuck in Iraq and it was looking for an exit strategy.
So it defined Iran as the root cause of all the problems in the Middle East and it left behind its
Middle East democratization-promotion policy relying once again on dictatorial Arab states so
that it could counter Iran and its supporting entities such as Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas.
From an observer’s point of view, this policy is similar to that of U.S. during the Cold
War and is not only unable to contain Iran’s influence in the region but it will only create more
instability there. The Bush administration believes that it can overcome the problems of the
Middle East with the use of military force and the language of force. The Bush administration
along with its Neo-conservative hawks whose view of the world is based on an American empire
has turned its face to the realities of the Middle East and has not done anything but to create
instability which is not even in American interests.
It would seem natural for Iran to take advantage of the Shia revival in the Middle East.
However, Iran itself is well aware of its own limitations. Firstly, as stated earlier, Iran’s
revolution was an Islamic revolution and not a Shia one and all of its constituencies were based
on Islam. So any portrayal of this revolution as a Shiite one is an incorrect assessment and a
result of incorrect propaganda. Secondly, Shia have always been discriminated against and in no
time has there been a case when Shia have come to power and misused it to conduct a vendetta Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, Spring 2009 132
by creating fear and uncertainty. However, the converse has not been the same in the case of
Sunnis and Salafis in particular. Thirdly, objectives of Iran which are stated in its 20-year
outlook are ones which require a very stable Middle East and it is thus not in its interests to
promote and support insecurity and instability in the region. Of course, naturally as any other
nation would do when it sees its national security in danger Iran would use all resources at its
disposal in order to protect it.
Arab states must also realize that the days of dictatorial regimes have come to an end.
They should not run away from their own domestic issues. In fact they need to address them
regardless of how complex they are. Secondly, they must recognize that what has happened in
Iraq is here to stay. They must learn to co-exist with a Shiite Iraq and to recognize and establish
ties with it. If not, other countries will fill in the vacuum that they will create. Thirdly, they must
understand that the outstanding challenge facing the Middle East is the Israeli-Palestinian issue
and without a proper resolution of this issue, the challenges in the Middle East will not go away.
Lastly, the United States needs to learn a lot from its previous experiences in dealing with
Iran. As a first lesson, it should recognize from its more recent experience in Afghanistan and
Iraq that using force cannot alleviate problems. Softer policies like those adopted by the EU or
China have shown more success and they will eventually outmaneuver those of the United
States. Secondly, it must understand that putting more pressure on Iran will not result in anything
tangible as Iran has showed over and over again that foreign pressure will only lead to a stronger
government and a more ardent nation behind their government. The United States and the
international community must recognize that it is due to their incorrect policies especially during
the Iran-Iraq war that Iran is pursuing a nuclear program. It is vital that Iran be recognized as
another player in the international community. If its security concerns are being acknowledged,
Iran would not have a reason to become adventurous in the region. Thirdly, the United States
should continue its democratization-promotion policy and make it its primary concern in the
Middle East as the majority of the Middle Eastern population would like to have peace and
stability rather than terrorism. It must also realize that those who turn towards terrorism and
extremism are mainly instigated by the policies of Israel and the United States. If the United
States pulls away from its demanding policies in the Middle East, then there is no reason for
extremists to fuel the fires of hate and terrorism. Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, Spring 2009 133
In sum, this article aims at the point that the idea of a Shia crescent will not benefit
anyone in the Middle East. In fact, it will only create more instability and violence for all the
players in the region and beyond. This lose-lose policy should be reversed into a win-win policy
and in that effect the United States would play a key and determining role.
NOTES
*
Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran Visiting Professor, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada
Al Jazeera News, (2006), 12 April, at http://english.algazeera.net.
1
2
Amirahmadi, Hooshang and Manouchehr Parvin, (eds.),(1988) Post-Revolutionary Iran (Boulder:
Westview Press)
3
Asharq al-Awsat, (2005), November 29 (www.asharqalawsat.com)
4
Ayoob, Mohammed (2005), “Deciphering Islam`s Multiple Voices: Intellectual Luxury or Strategic
Necessity?”, Middle East Policy, XII,3, Fall.
5
Bronson, Rachel, (2005), “Where Credit is Due: The Provenance of Middle East Reform”, The National
Interest, Summer.
6
Carter, Jimmy, (2008), “Pariah Diplomacy”, New York Times, 28 April.
7
CIA: The World Fact Book, (2007), Internet.
8
Ehteshami, A. (2006), “The Middle East: Between Ideology and Geo-politics”, in Mary Buckley and
Robert Singh, eds., The Bush Doctrine and the War on Terrorism (London: Routledge).
9
Ehteshami, A. and Mahjoob Zweiri, (2007) Iran and the Rise of Its Neoconservatives (London: I.B.
Tauris)
10
Ehteshami, A. and Steven Wright, (2007) “Political Change in the Arab Oil Monarchies: From
Liberalization to Enfranchisement”, International Affairs, 83,5: 913-932.
11
Escobar, Pepe (2007), “Shiitestan”, in Michel Korinam and John Laughland, eds., Shia Power: Next
Target Iran? (London: Vallentine Mitche Academic)
12
Farsoun, Samih and Mehrdad Mashyekhi (eds), (1992) Islam: Political Culture in the Islamic
Republic (London: Routledge)
13
Fuller, Graham and Rend Francke, (1999), The Arab Shia: The Forgotten Muslims (New York: St.
Martin’s Press)Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, Spring 2009 134
14
Gawdat Bahgat (2001), “Managing Dependence: American-Saudi Oil Relations”, Arab Studies
Quarterly, vol. 23, Issue 1.
16
Glazov, Jamie, (2003), “Symposium: The Future of U.S.-Saudi Relations”, Frontpage Magazine, July
11, Internet
17
Haji-Yousefi, Amir (2004/2005), “The Foreign Policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran: Constraints,
Opportunities, and Pressures”, The Iranian Journal of International Affairs, Fall and Winter.
18
Haji-Yousefi, Amir (2005), Foreign Policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Shadow of
Regional Developments, 1991-2001 (in Persian) (Tehran: Institute for Political and International
Studies)
19
Haji-Yousefi, Amir (2006), “The Shia Factor in Iran-Iraq Relations and Its Regional Implications”, The
Iranian Journal of International Affairs, Winter.
20
Hersh, Simon, (2006), “The Iran Plans”, New Yorker, April 17.
21
Hunter, Shireen (1990), Iran and the World (Bloomington: Indiana University Press)
22
Keyhan (Persian Daily), 14 October 2006.
23
Nasr, Vali (2006), The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future (New
York: W.W. Norton & Company)
24
Nasr, Vali and Ray Takeyh, (2008), “The Costs of Containing Iran: Washington’s Misguided New
Middle East Policy”, Foreign Affairs, 87,1, January/February.
25
Obeid, Nawaf, (2006a) “A Shia Crescent and the Shia Revival: Myths and Realities” Saudi National
Security Project, September, Internet.
26
Obaid, Nawaf, (2006b), “Stepping into Iraq: Saudi Arabia Will Protect Sunnis If the U.S. Leaves”,
Washington Post, November 29.
27
Parsi, Trita (2007), Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran, and the United
States (New Haven: Yale University Press)
28
Sefr al-Hawali (1991), Kissinger’s Promise and the American Aims in the Gulf (Riyadh: al-Saudia).
29
Sicherman, Harvey, (2007), “ Annapolis: Three-Ring Diplomacy”, Foreign Policy Research Institute,
December.
30
Takeyh, Ray (2006), Hidden Iran: Paradox and Power in the Islamic Republic (New York: Times
Books).
31
Terhalle, Maximilian (2007), “Are the Shia Rising?”, Middle East Policy, XIV,2, Summer.Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, Spring 2009 135
32
Walker, Martin (2006), “The Revenge of the Shia”, Wilson Quarterly, Autumn.
33
Walsh, Declan (2008), “Karzai survives Taliban assassination attempt during military parade”, The
Guardian, April 28.
34
Wright, Robin and Peter Baker (2004), “Leaders Warn against forming religious state”, Washington
Post, 8 December.
35
Yamani, Mai (2008), “The Two Faces of Saudi Arabia”, Survival, 50,1: 143-156.
http://www.alternativesjournal.net/volume8/number1/yousefi.pdf
Juan Cole peddles Saudi propaganda to fan Sunni-Shia sectarian divisions. Dishonest analysis. Among other things, shows North Yemen and East Saudi Arabia as Sunni majority areas.
———-
The Rise of the Sunnis and the Decline of Iran, Iraq and Hizbullah: The Middle East in 2013
Posted on 01/01/2013 by Juan
2013 will see Iranian influence in the Middle East continue a decline that began with the Arab upheavals of 2011. Iran’s two major allies in the Arab world are Syria and Lebanon. In Lebanon, Iran arms the Shiite party-militia Hizbullah, and does so overland through Iraq and Syria. Since Israel controls the Mediterranean off Lebanon and can, when it wants to, control Lebanese air space, the land corridor for Iranian supplies to Hizbullah is key to the latter’s ability to confront Israeli expansionism into Lebanese territory.
Hizbullah could well have its Iranian lifeline cut. Its secretary-general, Hassan Nasrullah, has come out strongly in favor of the government of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, because both of them are Iranian clients. If Syria falls to the Sunni Arab revolutionaries, the latter will have a grudge toward both Iran and Hizbullah for supporting the Baath government, and will likely cut the latter off from resupply through Syrian territory. Instead, Syrian support will go to the Sunnis of Beirut, Sidon, Tripoli, Akkar and the Biqa Valley.
Between 2003 and 2012 the United States, in a fit of absent-mindedness, made Iran a regional hegemon. Washington overthrew the Taliban in Afghanistan and delivered it into the hands of the Northern Alliance, a set of strong Iran allies. A brake on Iranian influence in Afghanistan was removed. Then the Bush administration overthrew Saddam Hussein, the Sunni ruler who subjected the Shiite majority and stood as a barrier to Iranian penetration of the Middle East. Without meaning to, the US brought to power a religious Shiite government that naturally allied with Iran. Then the US Congress targeted Syria for deep sanctions and the Bush hawks drove it firmly into the arms of Iran. The Bush administration backed Israel’s attack on Lebanon in 2006, which strengthened the Shiite party-militia Hizbullah, which now is a key backer of the government of Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Miqati. The pro-Iran capitals stretched from Kabul to Beirut (light blue in the map below), and Iran suddenly became a much bigger player in Levantine affairs than it had been in the 1990s. The Israeli security establishment, indeed, fingered Tehran as their most pressing threat. Iran was lionized in the Arab world for supporting Hizbullah against Israel in the 2006 Israel-Lebanon War.
If al-Assad falls in Syria and is replaced by a Sunni government of revolutionaries, they will be beholden to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey (and Libya), all of them Wahhabi or Sunni powers. They will likely punish Hizbullah for its support of the Baath government, and will support Sunni forces, including the Muslim Brotherhood, in Lebanese politics. If Hizbullah can’t replenish its stock of rockets, its geopolitical significance could decline, even as that of the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood rises. The partitions in the following map, of Iraq and Afghanistan, are meant only to depict the regional divide over foreign policy, not to suggest an actual break-up of these countries (but who knows?)
What the Middle East might look like if Damascus falls to the revolutionaries:
A Sunni-dominated Syria might well exert influence in northern and western Iraq far beyond what Shiite-dominated Baghdad does. The Sunni Arabs of central, western and northern Iraq are chafing under the rule of Shiite religious parties, and resent Iranian influence. Mosul (now Nineva) Province famously was undecided after World War I which country to join– Turkey, Syria or Iraq. At Versailles, Clemenceau cavalierly gave Lloyd George Mosul for Iraq. The story is that Lloyd George felt he had gotten Mosul so easily that he regretted not having asked for more from his French colleague. Anyway, you wonder if Mosul’s choices might not open up again in the coming years, a century after Clemenceau’s friendly gesture to the UK.
Likewise, as the US withdraws from Afghanistan through 2013, with a final withdrawal of active combat troops in 2014, Iran’s allies in that country could be weakened in the face of a resurgent, Pakistan- backed Taliban.
The Muslim Brotherhood will likely benefit from Iran’s decline. If the new Sunni government in Damascus is tinged with Brotherhood influence, it may well reach out to Cairo and forge the strongest Egypt-Syria alliance we have seen since the failure of the United Arab Republic (comprised of Egypt and Syria, 1958-1961).
The Israel lobbies in the United States have pushed for a US war on Iran, which the Obama administration seems unwilling to pursue. In the absence of military action, AIPAC and groups to their right (the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs, the American Enterprise Institute, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy) have succeeded in persuading the US Congress to impose a financial blockade on Iran, extending even to throwing up financial obstacles to the sale of Iranian petroleum.
But what if all this time the Israel lobbies were barking up the wrong tree? What if, even without US sanctions, Iran is geo=politically in decline?
A new, Sunni coalition in the Levant would group Lebanese Sunnis with Palestinians (whether PLO or Hamas); would rule Damascus and Cairo; and might well give extraordinary support to the Palestinians, especially to Hamas (an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood itself). It may be that not Tyre but Khan Yunis is the greater security threat to Israel in the new Middle East that is forming before our eyes. Sunni activists may well be much more committed to giving practical help to the PLO and Hamas than was al-Assad, who merely paid lip service to the plight of the Palestinians.
A Sunni, and possibly Muslim Brotherhood Syria could thus emerge as a major player, in Arab-Israeli affairs but also in northern Iraq. And, the salience of the Jordanian monarchy is reduced in case things develop in this direction.
A Sunni-dominated Levant would not necessarily be hostile to the US, though it is likely to bear some grudges for US inaction in Syria. But it would likely be severely hostile to Israel. A galvanized Syrian population and a revolutionary government, plus their support for the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, could introduce dangerous new frictions, at a time when the Likud Party in Israel is moving even further to the right. Increased Syrian-Israel tension is likely to be one outcome. A strengthened Hamas might well be another (Hamas is realigning away from Syria-Iran and toward Egypt-FSA).
Iran is far from Israel/Palestine and has limited clients in that region. If it is forced out of the Levant, it will lose a talking point in domestic elections at most. Israel on the other hand is rather outnumbered by Egypt and Syria, both of them immediate neighbors.
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§ 50 Responses to “The Rise of the Sunnis and the Decline of Iran, Iraq and Hizbullah: The Middle East in 2013”
EuroFrank 01/01/2013 at 4:52 am
Dear Professor Cole
Oh what fun! Scenarios.
This is a good one, which we will all recognise of course if I title it the “Gertie Bell Scenario”.
Well thought through and set out. There are a few extra dimensions and factors that need to be taken into account though.
Like Libya we need to look at consequences too, so we don’t end up with the equivalent of the “Mali and the 10,000 missing SAM” or another Genocide.
Alongside Sir Paul Newton’s work on Syria this is one of the best things I have read recently.
Mesopotamian 01/01/2013 at 4:58 am
Dear Dr Cole
I agree with your analysis but I think the dynamics of Iraq in 2013 and beyond are not as clear to me as a native Iraqi.
Baghdad’s control over Anbar and Mosul will be decided not by military force but by economic leverage. Anbar has some gas reserves but should they want to chart an independent course or latch on to Syria, they would lose a huge financial support from Basra petro dollars.
The issues of KRG and Turkey also seem to be up in the air as far as I can see. I honestly don’t see a clear turkish strategy. Iraq will not allow KRG to have indep pipeline to turkey and still remain part of Iraq.Yet, I can’t see Turkey encouraging KRG independence for this would surely lead to an eventual loss of south east turkey and 20 million Turkish Kurds as well as emergence of Kurds from Syria. So doesn’t a weaker Iraq pose a bigger long-term threat to turkey. If KRG and sunnistan break off from Iraq, the remaining Shiastan with all the massive oil reserves will likely have much stronger dependence on Iran than present day Iraq does. I can’t see the USG or Turkey for that matter allowing for such a scenario.
Do you see a coherent Turkish policy with respect to Iraq? I certainly dont.
Rupert Neil Bumfrey (@rupertbu) 01/01/2013 at 5:21 am
UAE uncovers Muslim Brotherhood cell, arrests members: link to gulfnews.com
Not so straightforward, as alliances, suggested above, may not be in place!
Luqman 01/01/2013 at 5:31 am
This is helpful in understanding how the events may unfold in Middle East. But i think what is missing in the text is Shiite-Sunni factor driving domestic conflicts which may shape regional politics in a different way. Rising Shiite Sunni Schism may take Gulf states more closer to Israel( of course through covert channels). The Sunni regime in Damascus and Egypt will look at Israel through more practical rather than ideological lenses.
David 01/01/2013 at 5:59 am
A very interesting point of view. I believe however, that this analysis depends on Syria successfully emerging from its civil war, and it is far from clear to me how it will do this. The Alawite Assad regime will probably not last another year, but the rebels will then be faced with deciding who runs the country. Right now, the Islamists are its strongest fighters, but they are not indigenous, and so a post-Assad conflict will be set up, wherein the Islamists contend with the locals. I believe that the Islamists will (rightly) feel that they have contributed heavily to the victory against the Assads, and so feel (wrongly) that they should have a strong say in the post-Assad government there. They will have a lot of confidence in their arms. But the non-Islamists have provided them with a lot of local knowledge, and once this conflict starts, the Islamists will be fighting with less of this, and be less dominant, making for a long post-Assad struggle.
If the Syrians do manage to settle their governance quickly after Assad, they will probably be weaker than Assad’s government, because the Saudis don’t have nearly the knowhow and wherewithal to build up military and intelligence powerhouses in their clients that Iran/Russia have.
Thus, while this article foresees Syria taking a path similar to that of Egypt, I think the more likely path is that of Libya.
Bill Jefferys 01/01/2013 at 10:25 am
“A break on Iranian influence in Afghanistan was removed. ”
Did you mean to write ‘brake’?
Don Bacon 01/01/2013 at 12:03 pm
“2013 will see Iranian influence in the Middle East continue a decline that began with the Arab upheavals of 2011.”
But is any loss of Iranian influence in the Levant a problem? Your penultimate sentence sentence provides the answer for readers who read that far and aren’t over-awed by the scary headline with its ‘decline in Iranian influence.’
Iran is far from Israel/Palestine and has limited clients in that region. If it is forced out of the Levant, it will lose a talking point in domestic elections at most.
Actually Iran never did have much influence in the Middle East except in Lebanon and Palestine, and they were charity cases for Iran. Iran’s future is to its north and east, not its west. That’s where the economic growth is, and Iran will have a piece of it.
Iran excels at diplomacy – it has to – and it is using its strength to extend its influence with Central and South Asia, particularly India which wants Iran as a corridor to Central Asia and even Europe.
Iran has the energy that Asia needs. It exports oil, gas and electricity and has found new energy sources. Plus, regarding contiguous states, Iran does have Iraq and probably the new Afghanistan as allies, Turkey still wants Iran energy, Turkmenistan is an ally, Russia isn’t far away and Pakistan badly needs Iran gas.
Rehmat 01/01/2013 at 1:45 pm
@Dr. Cole.
I bet your wishful thinking will make Netanyahu very happy. However, Obama just signed the Countering Iran in Western Hemispher Act, passed by AIPAC-controlled lawmakers early this year showing that Iran is gaining influence even in Latin America.
Hizballah has already proved in 2006 – that the Jewish army is no match to its fighters. Hizballah doesn’t receive aid from Tehran but directly from Ayatullah Khamenei’ trust. On the other hand, Syria receives more aid from Russia than Iran.
Hamas and Islamic Jihad, both 100% Sunnis – proved in November 2012 – how they can humiliate mighty Jewish army.
Sunni Turkey and Egypt are no match to Israel as their leaders are US-NATO clients. Iraq, on the other hand, is recovering from its 10-years of US-Israel occupation.
As Lord David Owen, former British foreign secretary wrote in UK daily Mirror in December 2011 – “the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq has made Iran the most powerful nation in the region”. And if I’m not mistaked, he included Israel in his statement.
link to rehmat1.com
Nap 01/01/2013 at 1:58 pm
Just because Iran is not totally isolated and has limited relation with few immediate state through a strong cultural unity and religion which are also occupied and hapless does not make for influence. Influence comes from the barrel of gun, US treasury and access to Washington and London, neither of which Iran possess.
John Goeker 01/01/2013 at 1:59 pm
Thanks for this piece, Juan.
I think it will be very interesting to see what happens after the Syrian civil war.
1. I’m not entirely sure there will be a Syria as we currently know it. It’s possible we may see yet another version of ‘Fragmentistan’, as different faiths, tribes and ethnicities attempt to create their own enclaves / republics, or attempt to ally with like groups across borders. We may ultimately see the greatest redrawing of lines in the region since the fall of the Ottomans and Sikes-Picot / partitioning.
2. The mantle of resistance to Israel long (and fraudulently) worn by the al Assads / Syria may pass to the Saudis and Gulf states – and perhaps the wider Arab world – as they attempt to distract their growing populations from declining lifestyles and growing oppression. It’s intriguing to speculate as to what would happen in the US – and thus ultimately to israel – if the Gulf states were to begin actively to lobby / finance elections as a counter to AIPAC, AEC et al. We know who has the deeper pockets there.
3. Hezbollah may find other patrons hoping to maintain a strategic balance to Israel in the north. (Turkey comes to mind, as well as some Gulf states.) Nasrallah will soon have to choose new partners in any case, as his support for al Assad becomes more and more untenable ethically as well as logistically. Significantly, what Hezbollah will need is not so much arms per se, but technology transfers and cash to create their own. (And in an open source world, those resources flow across borders much more easily than actual hardware.)
4. If the US and Israel weren’t so foolish as to give the mullahs an external enemy to blame for the same declining lifestyles and growing oppression that most Arab states are experiencing, the next Iranian revolution might well be underway already. The Iranian regime is not only facing a decline in influence, but its own existential threat. Rising expectations too long unmet sooner or later lead to destabilization and revolution.
Multiply all that by modern communications / social media and the continuing ‘evolution of lethality’ in, and access to, weaponry and you have the manifestation of the Chinese curse, ‘May you live in interesting times.’
Happy New Year indeed.
rosemerry 01/01/2013 at 2:21 pm
Thanks for the analysis, Juan, and the comments too. Don has a good finish to cheer us up as well!
Molly 01/01/2013 at 2:44 pm
This is accurate, probably, in a realist sense, but I find it shocking that the rights of minorities, including Shia in Lebanon, Allawites and Christians in Syria, do not merit a mention and that we are indifferent to the rise of sectarian exclusivism in the Middle East in the name of opposing Iran. I think that the blood and treasure spent in Iraq to urge sectarian comity and mutual tolerance are about to be sacrificed in another fit of inattention… Some kind collective ADHD, I call it…
Juan 01/01/2013 at 4:26 pm
The article isn’t about advocacy, it is an analysis of regional geo-politics. It doesn’t suggest doing or not doing anything because of Iranian influence; only that if Bashar falls, the latter will likely be reduced. There is a difference between analysis and policy advocacy, which is apparently increasingly difficult to understand for those living in our propaganda information system.
shah8 01/01/2013 at 9:35 pm
However, is not the disregard for their welfare profoundly un-realist? Isn’t their legitimate concern about the potential for widescale ethnic cleansing a pretty darn big card in the favor of urban Syrians, whether Assad stays or goes? Do you think that, for example, any Ikhwan government, will have access to any domestic revenue if the factories of Aleppo are quiet? This conflict is now, broadly speaking, an urban-rural fight. Those boys either have to go home to raise the crops (drugs or otherwise), or live off of what the cities produce/kidnap/steal/whatever. This ain’t about any central government. It’s essentially about the US’ deep state that prefers unresponsive or nonexistent states for people in the ME (aside from Israel). From what I can see, all that has ever mattered was simply removing Assad as a geopolitical factor. He can stay as mayor of Damascus if he likes, or there can be some ineffectual government dependent on GCC cash. It doesn’t matter.
Anyways, I do, broadly speaking, think Assad will win. No cohesive military or political regime? No real supply chain? The circumstances where this sort of “rebellion” can succeed are really limited. In Panama and FARC Colombia, you have high mountains and persistent civil conflict. In Somalia, the government was isolated and friendless. Aftghanistan wasn’t really about changing the government so much as enforcing a favorable clientelism. That’s what Syria is actually about, but I think the fundamental misunderstanding of the enterprise here, is that Syria is pretty urban, that not very many people can live off of the land, etc, etc. Assad pretty much only has to wait until next fall, before this whole thing becomes a massive tarbaby for the Ikhwan and the GCC. No crops, no real money for import, no way to make anything, either. Rebels probably making themselves far more hated as well.
So just how long, do you think, that anyone can keep an army in the field–without real organization? Absent intervention, the rebels will lose.
Juan 01/02/2013 at 1:27 am
all you have to do is make 18 maps of Syria, one for each of the last 18 months, each showing how much of the country is contested by the revolutionaries, to see that the trend line is against the regime. I’d give it only a 10% chance of surviving another year.
Anyway, my scenario does not predict what will happen, it simply lays out the likely consequences should Bashar fall.
John Goeker 01/02/2013 at 10:44 am
Self-organizing groups are generally far more resilient than we imagine, not least because they generally only have to not lose, whereas regimes have to win.
The Talib in AfPak are well over a decade on now and gaining momentum. Hezbollah has a win / loss record any army would be proud of. S Sudan is now a state.
Overall, mapmakers have done very well the past few decades, redrawing lines as former colonial / imperial constructs implode and reform – generally into smaller, more homogeneous entities. (193 seats at the UN now, up from 51 at the outset.)
The Syrian rebels now have borders and safe zones for refuge and resupply – generally considered necessary for insurgent success – as well as growing access to deep pocket external support.
Who now will invest in the al Assad regime? How will they pay those troops and replace those armaments with what appears to be a looming cash shortage? Anybody willing to buy their paper?
Part of the reason I see a Fragmentistan scenario as a significant probability is the retreat of the Alawi and regime diehards to the home turf when forced to do so by logistics.
joe from Lowell 01/02/2013 at 5:21 pm
You might want to ask Mao how urban-rural conflicts work out.
joe from Lowell 01/01/2013 at 5:48 pm
I know Sudan has good relations with Iran, but are they really so much better than Sudan’s relations with, say, Saudi Arabia as to justify coloring Sudan blue, as if it was part of a pro-Shiite bloc?
Juan 01/02/2013 at 1:05 am
link to al-monitor.com
joe from Lowell 01/02/2013 at 5:12 pm
The Sudanese government seems eager to downplay the claim that their friendliness towards Iran represents a turn away from the Saudis, while ongoing Saudi investments in agriculture, mining, and infrastructure in Sudan indicates that the two countries still have strong ties.
It looks more like Sudan has gone from being part of the Sunni bloc to being neutral, more than joining the Shiite bloc.
Bruno 01/01/2013 at 5:59 pm
Future, I guess, will be contrary to what you claim but (to some extent) for reasons you mentioned. In the longer term, after an inevitable regime change in Iran (do not worry, it will happen) it will be again a semi-secular country, countering – in cooperation with Europe, USA, and Israel (yes!) – Sunni/Arab influence in the Middle East. Iran will be only on the rise, and (again in a longer term!) – its geopolitical position will increase. It may seem to you surrealistic – but only now. Wait and let’s see.
joe from Lowell 01/02/2013 at 5:15 pm
I agree.
By the end of the 21st century, there will be an alliance with the United States, India, and a democratic Iran at its center that will be as important as the NATO alliance was in the 20th.
super390 01/02/2013 at 6:10 pm
So what you’re saying is that the West/Israel cynically switch sides back and forth between Arabs and Persians to keep both of them weak. Culling the herds, so to speak.
Amir 01/02/2013 at 10:31 pm
Or as one might say, how Brits switched sides between Germanic and Franco-Roman people to culling the herd so to speak. That did not end up too well for the cullers as one might recall the events of 40-45. Germans and French on the other hand seem to have solved the problem and are basically in a economic- and quasi-political union without the meddlers muddying the water. An example to follow?
joe from Lowell 01/02/2013 at 11:17 pm
And what are the Indians doing in this story you’ve made up? Carrying the bags?
Visitor 01/01/2013 at 8:14 pm
Questions about the African countries on the map:
Why is Djibouti, an Arab League and OIC member country with an overwhelmingly Sunni country made up of ethnic Afar and Somalis and easily pressured by the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia not colored in yellow?
Why is Eritrea, with a “non-Muslim” tyrannical regime passing for a “government,” designated as “Sunni Muslim” according to the yellow color when it belongs to neither the Arab League nor the OIC?
Why is northern Sudan, with an overwhelmingly Sunni population, colored in blue, indicating being “pro-Iranian” when its politics are far more complicated? Yes, they have been “trans-shipping” arms from Iran to Hamas and perhaps beyond that in exchange for political and other support, but it also has ties with Egypt, especially the MB, the Gulf and Saudi and others in the Arab and Muslim world.
Mark Koroi 01/01/2013 at 9:22 pm
“Saddam Hussein…..stood as a barrier to Iran penetration of the Middle East.”
Hussein’s antagonism of Iran in the Iran-Iraq war actually was a key factor in the release of American hostages that were taken from the U.S. Embassy in Teheran in 1979. The Carter administration’s freeze of $5 billion in Iranian assets in the U.S. caused Iran to negotiate a release to free up cash that was badly needed to replenish its military supplies to be used to defend Iran against Iraq.
The casualty figures that were inflicted upon Iran during that conflict were staggering. Remember the CIA complicity in the 1980s in getting massive FDIC-insured loans via an Italian bank so Iraq could purchase military hardware. The Hussein regime in Iraq was a valuable anti-Iranian ally of the CIA during that decade – even though it was publicly an ally of the Soviet Union.
Although there was the apparent outrage over the Reagan administration sale of arms to Iran in quasi-exchange for the release of hostages in Lebanon, it should be remembered that those arms were needed against Iraq rather than harming purely U.S. interests. Iraq, again, indirectly aided the U.S. during this time frame by the pressure exerted from the prosecution of its war against Iran.
The CIA and Mossad have reportedly aided the Free Syrian Army, and while it is correct that the deposing of Assad may cut off the arms supply to Hezbollah from Iran, Israel may in the long run suffer more from a Muslim Brotherhood-controlled government in Damascus that could be instrumental in bolstering support of Hamas against Israel.
Since the Second Lebanon War, Israel has been shifting to the right politically and the far-right of the Homeland Party led by Avigdor Lieberman has been gaining steadily more power in both the Knesset and Israeli Cabinet despite its own shortcomings – the Israeli Justice Ministry just obtained a criminal indictment against Lieberman. Morsi’s election in Egypt was instrumental in holding Israel and Hamas in check in Gaza during the last conflict – Morsi no doubt prevented a recurrence of the atrocities of Operation Cast Lead by sending a delegation to Gaza during the IDF bombardment and by assisting in negotiations to prevent a protracted IDF military incursion. The impotence of the world community to stop aggressive IDF actions in Gaza during Operation Cast Lead had been apparent.
It is ironic Israel wanted Saddam Hussein removed from power, yet that removal brought to eventual power the same Shi’ite Islam worldview that was already existing in Israel’s arch-foe Iran.
JTMcPhee 01/02/2013 at 11:48 am
Does anybody ever really know?
I mean, how stuff like the initiatives and quarterback sneaks and Statue of Liberty plays that Players in the CIA and the rest of Compartmentaldom pull? Things like getting US taxpayer full-faith-and-credit guarantees for the Pope’s bank to lend money to the Iraqi dictator to “keep the pressure on Iran” because they dissed the CIA’s Chosen Overlord?
These are people with “people skills” of a certain sort, a pretty ugly set on the whole, that are pretty good about executing (pun intended) their plans, but so often that guy Murphy seems to step in, like every time, and “re-direct” all that negative energy that the Shadow Governments inject into the system into, Suprise! Unintended Consequences! that just REQUIRE even more idiot destabilizing but oh so elegant and complicated “intervention.”
And then along come the Spinners, once the Limoges is shattered, to either continue the deniability game and escape opprobrium for net failure of the Grand-Plan-as-memo’d-and-sold as one option, or figure out a way to carom the missed shot off the fenders so that they can say “That’s really what we wanted to happen all along,” thus protecting their little Supra-legal lairs and fiefdoms and snares and delusions from suffering too much attention of the “career-limiting” kind.
Who lost China, again? Who lost Vietnam? Who lost Iraq? Who’s losing Notagainistan? What are the next losses over the equatorial horizon? [And in all of that, what the hell were the “national interests” that were supposed to be at stake, again? Other than protecting the bureaucracy of the “decider,” and “saving face” by exposing our butts? and, of course, that old unstated root of all evil, Upward Wealth Transfer?
And who suffers the pains and deaths and horrors of those losses, and all the crap that got stirred in by all the Players who think they have all this under such nice control, or at least know they can stupe and stalk around like overweight raptors, stirring up and terrifying the herds of critters who actually do something useful toward maintaining the ecology, even if it’s only to churn up the ground for seeds, and adding their dung and eventually their carcasses to the topsoil?
super390 01/02/2013 at 6:16 pm
As long as Americans are culturally indoctrinated to view foreigners as not quite human, because anyone who is poor is subhuman and anyone who is rich and doesn’t act white is insane, our endless foreign policy fiascos, blowbacks and catastrophes can always be excused by officials:
“We meant well; those people over there are crazy.”
And our citizens will always nod their heads in empathy.
Satish 01/01/2013 at 9:50 pm
After 32 years of hostilities,containment,economic sanctions,diplomatic isolation & sever sanctions against Iran,where even medicines denied,yet Jan article has depicted Iran as super regional power,where a super power called US failed to do so & instead SUNNI power would make the decline of Iran.Question is Iran is having substantial population of SUNNI, then what is the definition of SUNNI as power in relation with US?Is it alliance or another US proxy??
Peter T 01/01/2013 at 10:10 pm
Interesting piece. I think it overstates Sunni solidarity (especially as linking non-Arab Turkey with Syria or Saudi). It’s hard for modern states to fragment unless there are established internal lines of demarcation, as in Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union, so I find it hard to envisage Syria fragmenting along Sunni/Shia lines. But there is likely to be greater opportunity for Sunni in Iraq and Syria to forge alliances, possibly backed by Saudi (as observed, where the Kurds fit in will be a question). But this would push Syrian Shia across the border into Lebanon or into Iraq, strengthening Shia parties in both. And Shia, as the largest bloc in Lebanon, will retain considerable political strenght regardless of the outcome in Syria.
I would also note that Iran is in a different class economically than Syria or the petro-states. It has a large industrial sector (and sanctions are probably encouraging local development). It’s closer to Turkey or Brazil as an emerging industrial power than to a petro-state. Hence the problems it poses for israle and the US.
shah8 01/02/2013 at 2:09 am
A long reply to the above thread:
Assad, to me, clearly has a plan, that plan really does seem to be a Fabian one. How he wins or loses matters. Moreover, just like Hannibal going all over Italy, a set of 18 maps generally will not convey the actual situation. If Hannibal (or Hannibals) can’t actually muster real centralization of logistics and violence, then defeat is inevitable–all the men will wander off without renewed victory or spoils. The only way this “war” can be kept going is by the largesse of the various external parties to this process. That gets expensive, quick. All those refugees in neighboring countries gets troublesome, quick…
And by steadfastedly presuming that Assad will fall from power, we avoid thinking about the regime, why people would support the regime, and how a new one would evolve, just like what we did in Iraq–the destabilizing failure of the original reconstruction aims of the original US policies is a major contributer to Saudi-Qatar-Turkey frenemy actions vis á vis Syrian actors. Westerners also tend to have a nasty tendency to map Sunni-Shiite rivalries along their original racial concepts (encouraged by native actors that stand to benefit), when all of their relationships are far more complex than which mosque one goes to.
One of the real implications that I think many of those involved in thinking about geopolitics are utterly failing to comprehend is just how angry the situation is on the ground. Beyond that, I also think such people get far too cute about the idea that a state would be dismembered into small statelets. That traditionally does not happen for a whole host of reasons. As such, I think that people are drastically overestimating the extent that there will be a pliable Syria at the end of the road, or the chances that Syria can genuinely bog down in some long, drawn out civil war along the lines of the Tamil Tigers or Eritrea in undeveloped regions. And we aren’t talking about the tiny pro-Russian enclaves in the Caucasus–we’re talking about the major cities like Homs or Aleppo that cannot be separate from the web of internal communications, transportation, and economic relations without consequence.
I think you, as well as others, are fundamentally not grokking just how much consent of the public, not least the danged army, matters to the flow of events and the final outcome. Which matters because the deep state of Syria still exists, and no foreigner Ikhwan quisling will be able to rule over it, never mind the native business class(As it is, I think Qatar is fundamentally in misapprehension about how much they can drive Egyptian politics via control of the pursestrings). So long as the Syrian deep state still exists as an organized arm, the rebels will be out-organized and out-armed, and I think any real discussion by Russia or Iran about post Assad possibilities have far more to do with the ongoing infrastructure damage and what that means to their foreign policy rather than any real concern for Assad.
joe from Lowell 01/02/2013 at 5:28 pm
So long as the Syrian deep state still exists as an organized arm, the rebels will be out-organized and out-armed
Certainly, but the Syrian rebels have been out-organized and out-armed throughout the entire war. Those shortcomings haven’t prevented them from steadily improving their position and growing over the past almost-two-years. Take a look at the defections, and how unidirectional they are.
You mention “consent of the public.” I don’t think that particular vector moves in the direction you assume.
shah8 01/03/2013 at 12:48 am
It’s a proxy war fought on Syrian soil, with many militias filled with foreign nationals. What the Syrian public wants has had nothing to do with nothing during the fighting. They want Assad gone, but who they want are probably leaders that actually lived in Syria, honest leaders. If you’re going to give them some smooth-talking Chalabi fool with his sticky hand in Western/Qatari/Turkish/Saudi pies, they will almost certainly stick with Assad.
As far as gaining territory? Let me repeat this, for all of the good it will do with you, but with no governance, gaining territory does squat. No state institutions? Starving, fled, terrified populace? Not the recipe for any kind of longterm presence, especially if militarily contested. Assad is doing what he’s doing because he doesn’t want to spend gas and reliable troops moving against irregular combatants that can hit him on his roads at will. He’s also facing troops that are supplied and financed by external powers–let THEM spend the money and arm their troops. Let THEM distribute bread to people in a state of anarchy, or if truly desperate, to only the fighting men. This situation is absolutely untenable for the rebel personnel in the field, and the supply chain from Turkey will be dramatically overtaxed as rebels start having to fight desperate civilians. That’s the theory, anyways. And it should work, unless the rebels got their act together, or a major foreign intervention happens.
Amir 01/02/2013 at 2:28 am
What Mr. Cole forgets is that the Sunni in Fallujah and alike have not forgotten the massacre nor the ongoing effects of the first radiological warfare “humans” have conducted. Don’t count on it that if your hypothesis is true, the outcome will benefit you. In Farsi we say “If ‘if’ is planted no plant is going to grow out of it.
Juan 01/02/2013 at 3:10 am
The essay is agnostic on whether these developments will harm or benefit the United States.
Among the leaders of the anti-Maliki protests is Abu Risha, an American ally. Al-Anbar is not a simplistic as you think.
Jim C 01/02/2013 at 3:26 am
Good article but assumes a lot and does lay most eventualities out.
There is one angle not discussed much in the Western Media – The schism between the Sunnis and the Shia. This is not a major focus at present but does have its beginnings in Pakistan where an increasing campaign by Sunni extremists against the minority Shia population is gathering pace.
Pakistan is struggling to contain anything in its borders and the campaign above will grow legs.
I would like to see more comments from locals in the countries mentioned in the article – This is an article written from Western eyes.
heyegd 01/02/2013 at 4:36 am
I thought the Alawites lived on the Mediterranean coast of syria. So you could end up with a Shite coast from Israel to Turkey, protected by the Russian navy.. Your aanalysis should also mention that Iran is becoming an industrialised nation, unlike Sunni majority Arab nations.
BTW, are the Kurds and Turkey coming to some sort of understanding?
Kurtlar Vadisi 01/02/2013 at 4:38 am
One of the real implications that I think many of those involved in thinking about geopolitics are utterly failing to comprehend is just how angry the situation is on the ground. Beyond that, I also think such people get far too cute about the idea that a state would be dismembered into small statelets. That traditionally does not happen for a whole host of reasons. As such, I think that people are drastically overestimating the extent that there will be a pliable Syria at the end of the road, or the chances that Syria can genuinely bog down in some long, drawn out civil war along the lines of the Tamil Tigers or Eritrea in undeveloped regions.
Allison 01/02/2013 at 5:13 am
Prof Cole – very interesting analysis as always. Many thanks for your excellent work during 2012, and best wishes for 2013.
I wanted add that we should not assume Sudan will always stay an Iranian ally. It has historically tried to balance relations with the Gulf esp Saudi and Qatar (for investment, religious reasons, and Qatar – before it got engaged in the Arab Spring – decided to take a leading role on Darfur peace processes and reconstruction) on the one hand, and Iran on the other hand (essentially pragmatic reasons – supplier of arms, money, oil, and a friend (something Khartoum doesn’t have too many of).
But the relation with Iran (and Hezbollah/Hamas), though it provides certain benefits, is by no means uncontroversial domestically, and has costs too. In September, the Yarmouk arms factory in Khartoum was bombed. Shia proselytising in Sudan is deeply unpopular. And it annoys the Saudis. Plus it’s not very rational in terms of foreign policy – Khartoum is pro the Syrian opposition yet Iran supports the Syrian regime. And the Khartoum regime is facing numerous challenges – economic, security, political. In the event of regime change (coup or popular uprising) or a managed transition (a national unity government), Sudan may reorientate itself closer to the Gulf/Turkey.
Even without that, as Iran’s economy gets hit by sanctions and mismanagement, will it be able to sustain its level of support for Sudan?
A wider story is the Iran vs Israel battle for influence in Africa, played out across the new Sudan-South Sudan international border.
drew 01/02/2013 at 10:56 am
I don’t see Sunnis in Iraq or Syria preventing Shiites from combat with Israel in any way, shape, or form. Not all Sunnis hate Shiites despite recent sectarian conflict, and if even if a local Sunni militia was faced with the decision (do we stop and report these Shiites transporting weapons intended to fight Israel, or do we let both of our foes do each other in?)
Some data on interceptions of weapons shipments specific to this theory would be valuable.
Sensa 01/02/2013 at 2:36 pm
The irony is that Charlie Rose, in an interview with Dan Ayalon(?), former Shin Bet(?), of about three months ago, made exactly the same prediction, a Sunni arc to supplant Iranian and Hizb power, aided and abetted by Israel.
Mark Koroi 01/02/2013 at 9:37 pm
Danny Ayalon is the deputy foreign minister of Israel and a member of the extreme right-wing Homeland Party.
Electronic Intifada and Mondoweiss did nice investigative pieces showing statements Ayalon made to Israeli reporters all but confirming the Israeli government was behind an ill-fated lawsuit against the Olympia Food Coop in the State of Washington in which five plaintiffs attempted to overturn a board of directors resolution to boycott Israeli-made products. Judge Thomas McPhee not only dismissed the case but later awarded each of the sixteen defendants $10,000 in damages and requested that the defense submit an itemized attorney fee request for his consideration.
Saf 01/02/2013 at 4:25 pm
Hard not to see a rise in Sunni Islamist extremism overall as well, regionally and globally.
If Pakistan is any indication, or even Egypt, it may not look good for the Shia and/or other non-Sunni populations scattered around the ME.
Safa 01/02/2013 at 5:52 pm
A few points, Juan:
1. Iraqis are famously a nationalistic people. The Iraqi flag is a prominent sight in the current Sunni protests in Iraq and the Sunnis there see themselves as the natural rulers of the country. Their identity is heavily dictated by this with the city you mentioned, Mosul, being the location where many Iraqi military officers come from. To suggest that these individuals would think about seceding from the territory that is known as Iraq is highly unlikely I think. Arab Iraqis remain dedicated to a united state, they merely have different ideas of what that state should look like, but they are dedicated to it.
2. The Muslim Brotherhood won’t pose a meaningful security threat to Israel. Your own sectarian dichtomoy illustrates this aptly I think. The Sunnis backing the Syrian revolutionaries are composed of the traditional US-allies (Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey). Crucially, Qatar funds the MB and the AKP in Turkey are allied to the MB as a pan-regional movement anyway. The two states also enjoy heavy US support. Despite Erdogan’s diplomatic gestures and Qatar’s aid to the Palestinians, it’s fair to say that there’s an invisible line that they know not to cross. To illustrate this, I’ll pose a question: How would the US react if it knew that these states were arming Hamas? There would inevitably be fury from the US and it would end immediately (or more likely, wouldn’t happen in the first place). However, knowing that they are arming the rebels in Syria and the lack of any protest from the US indicates that these is indeed a tactic endorsement of their actions. These states are reliant on US support and are close allies. They are both part of the same geopolitical side. They would not pose any serious military or economic threat to Israel. Israel knows this too. Without resorting to superlatives regarding Israel’s strategic nouse, there’s a reason why the state and its lobbies have not focused on the MB threat. Because they know it’s non-existent.
3. Your hypothetical about a resurgent Sunni Syria is unlikely too. Firstly, this conflict is likely to be a prolonged one. Given the massive regional stakes which you yourself have illustrated, it would be several years in my opinion. Secondly, the character which the state would take is difficult to predict. Assad and those allied to the regime currently are not going to go away. There is a real potential that any peaceful government which emerges must be one that represents them to a degree. Like the duration of the conflict however, it’s a difficult prediction to make. One prediction however, remains easy. That is, whatever kind of state does emerge – it will not be a powerful one. The nation will almost certainly be divided and crushed on an economical and military level. Their threat potential to Israel, is once again, non-existent.
Mark Koroi 01/02/2013 at 9:55 pm
As to point No. 3, agreed.
There are estimated to be only several hundred Islamic extremists that are fighting the Assad government in their separate militias. The U.S. State Department has labeled them as a terrorist organization.
The civilian organizational body that is linked to the Free Syrian Army has representatives that cover a broad spectrum of Syrian society. Other than a Kurdish group that has not joined this body, all ethnic minorities and and major stakeholders e.g. the feminist movement, have latched on to this organization that recognizes the Free Syrian Army as an advocate of its interests.
Cyrus 01/02/2013 at 8:21 pm
As long as the rising “Sunni” states don’t make nice with Israel or the US, Iran doesn’t really give a fig. Either way, it works out to Iran’s benefit.
Ihsan Alkhatib 01/03/2013 at 12:06 am
Framing the developments as a decline of Iranian influence and reach would be more accurate than framing it as a Shia/Sunni thing. Azerbaijan is the only other Shia majority country in the world and it has a completely different politics from Iran.
Juan 01/03/2013 at 1:00 am
Typically in the post-Soviet states at least half the population is atheists and a further portion are not religiously observant. Azerbaijan is Shiite the way France is Catholic. Less so.
DesTex 01/03/2013 at 12:35 am
Great post Prof. Cole!!
The possibilities are intriguing. As many prominent Generals in the defense establishment have routinely mentioned, Iran is a rational actor. With waning power their rationality will be put on a test for sure.
http://www.juancole.com/2013/01/decline-hizbullah-middle.html
Other propaganda pieces by Juan Cole:
Dear Neocons: Iraqis still don’t feel liberated: Iraq’s Sunni Arab Spring
http://www.juancole.com/2012/12/dear-neocons-iraqis-still-dont-feel-liberated-iraqs-sunni-arab-spring.html
UN: 60,000 have been Killed in Syrian Revolution (Video)
http://www.juancole.com/2013/01/killed-syrian-revolution.html
The World in 1013 AD: China Rising, Militant Islam in Kabul, & Sunni-Shiite Struggles in Mideast
http://www.juancole.com/2013/01/years-comparisons-contrast.html
Israel should be wary of celebrating the ‘Shia crescent’ setback
The Arab spring has weakened the Iran-led muqawama bloc, but another threat to Israel looms – Sunni Islamist forces
Jonathan Spyer
Jonathan Spyer
theguardian.com, Wednesday 7 September 2011 11.00 BST
Jump to comments (167)
Taherkenareh/EPA
In recent years, Israeli strategists have identified an Iran-led regional alliance as representing the main strategic challenge to the Jewish state. This alliance looks to be emerging as one of the net losers of the Arab upheavals of 2011. This, however, should be cause for neither satisfaction nor complacency for Israel. The forces moving in to replace or compete with Iran and its allies are largely no less hostile.
The Iran-led regional alliance, sometimes called the muqawama (“resistance”) bloc, consisted of a coalition of states and movements led by Tehran and committed to altering the US-led dispensation that pertained since the end of the cold war.
It included, in addition to Iran itself, the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon, the Sadrist movement and other Shia Islamist currents in Iraq, Syria’s Assad regime, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad organisation. It appeared in recent years also to be absorbing Hamas.
The muqawama bloc presented itself as the representative of authentic Islamic currents in the Middle East, and as locked in combat until the end with the west and its clients. These included Saudi Arabia, Hosni Mubarak’s Egypt, and above all, Israel.
However, the alliance always had a rather obvious flaw: while presenting itself as an inclusive, representative camp, it was an almost exclusively Shia Muslim club, in a largely Sunni Muslim Middle East.
The Iranians evidently hoped that militancy against the west, above all on behalf of the Palestinians, could counteract the league-of-outsiders aspect of their alliance.
For a while, this project appeared to be working. The Iran-created and sponsored Hezbollah movement managed to precipitate Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon in 2000, and then avoided defeat in a subsequent round of fighting in 2006. In a poll of Arab public opinion taken in 2008, the three most popular leaders were Hassan Nasrallah, Bashar al-Assad and Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, in that order.
But this sense of inexorable ascendancy in which the Iran-led bloc liked to cloak itself has fallen victim to the Arab spring. First, the Saudis crushed a largely Shia uprising in Bahrain which the Iranians backed. But more importantly, Iran’s tooth and nail defence of the brutal Assad regime in Syria is progressively destroying its already shallow support Sunni Muslims.
Thus, a recent poll by the Arab-American Institute asked more than 4,000 Arabs their view of Iran. In Saudi Arabia, 6% had a positive view – down from 89% in 2006. In Jordan, the positive rating fell from 75% to 23%, in Egypt from 89% to 37% in the same period.
The uprising in Syria placed Iran in an impossible position. Maintaining its ally in Damascus formed an essential strategic interest. Iran hoped, following the US departure from Iraq, to achieve a contiguous line of pro-Iranian, Shia states stretching from Iran itself to the Mediterranean. But keeping this ambition alive in recent months required offering very visible support to a non-Sunni regime engaged in the energetic slaughter of its own, largely Sunni people. This has led to the drastic decline in the standing of the Iranians and their friends.
Such a decline was probably inevitable. Outside the core areas of Shia Arab population, Iran’s support was broad but shallow. It is noteworthy that since the Arab Spring, Hamas appears to have distanced itself both from Assad and from the Iranians. According to some reports, this has led to Iranian anger and a cessation of the flow of funds to the Hamas enclave in Gaza.
These setbacks do not mean the end of Iran and its allies as a regional power bloc. Assad has not yet fallen. The Iranian nuclear programme is proceeding apace. Tehran’s Hezbollah client is in effective control of Lebanon. But it does mean that in future the Iranian appeal is likely to be more decisively limited to areas of Shia population.
The less good news, from Israel’s point of view, is that the new forces on the rise in the region consist largely of one or another variant of Sunni Islamism. AKP-led Turkey has emerged as a key facilitator of the Syrian opposition, in which Sunni Islamist elements play a prominent role. Turkey appears to be in the process of making a bid for the regional leadership also sought by Iran.
In Egypt, too, the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist forces look set to reap an electoral dividend in November. The Sinai area has already become a zone of activity for Islamist terror directed against Israel, because of the breakdown in law and order in recent months. The attacks on the pipeline bringing Egyptian gas to Israel, and the recent terror attack in Eilat, are testimony to this.
So while the “Shia crescent” may have suffered a strategic setback as a result of the upheavals in the Arab world, the space left by the fall of regional leaders looks to be filled largely by new, Sunni Islamist forces.
Israel remains capable of defending itself against a strategic threat posed by any constellation of these elements. But the current flux in the region is likely to produce a more volatile, complex Middle East, consisting of an Iran-led camp and perhaps a number of Sunni competitors, rather than the two-bloc contest of pro-US and pro-Iranian elements which preceded 2011.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/sep/07/israel-complacent-decline-shia-influence