The future of Taliban – by Abbas Zaidi
The future of the Taliban is bright in Pakistan. They will not take over Islamabad from where they can deal with the world. No. This will not suit them
The very abbreviation TTP (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan) and the concept behind it are bogus. The concept is that there are ‘good’ and ‘bad’ Taliban. The good Taliban are supposed to be pro-Pakistan, but there is no definition about who the bad ones are. It can be argued that the bad Taliban are ones who are not controlled by Pakistan. But are the good Taliban pro-Pakistan? Where is the evidence?
Leaving aside the false binary of good-bad Taliban, one must understand the inter-textuality of the Taliban and their supporters. One cannot understand the Taliban phenomenon in 2013 without understanding that they are financed by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, apart from the Pakistani diaspora in various countries. In turn, one cannot discount the significance of these four factors in the economic survival of Pakistan. And one cannot underestimate the support for the Taliban within Pakistan itself.
You will be absolutely wrong if you thought that the Taliban, the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) and the Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat (ASWJ) are three different outfits, and not three incarnations of ‘Islamofascism’.
This brings us to Pakistan’s most powerful political party: PML-N, which is going to rule Pakistan for the next five years. For the Sharif brothers, the Taliban are “our brethren”. They want to negotiate with them. Next, we have Imran Khan and his educated, upper middle class elites. They too respect the Taliban and want to negotiate with them. The PTI-nominated chief minister for the Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa province (KPK) has clearly said that the PTI has no quarrel with the Taliban. The Jamaat-e-Islami, the PTI partner in KPK coalition, as well as Jamiat-e-Ulema Islam (JUI), the PML-N partner in Islamabad, are as pro-Taliban as anyone else.
The ANP and the PPP were bombed into silence by the Taliban so they could not even launch an election campaign. The MQM has got a bloody nose in Karachi and the day is not very far when the Taliban will openly take on it too.
Despite General Kiyani’s off-and-on vague statements which are sometimes interpreted as condemning the Taliban (on the ‘bad’ ones, by the way), the Army is known or perceived to be pro-Taliban as an institution. The judiciary filled with rightwing Punjabi judges is notoriously pro-Taliban, and has time and again released them.
The list can go on, but one should stop at the role of the media in strengthening the Taliban. The word “Taliban” or even “terrorist” is missing on daily talk shows. The only words used to describe the Taliban are “shidat pasand”. Now this is a vague and ridiculous pair. It means “those who like excesses”. Do you see the irony? This is how the media report the Taliban. Who is afraid of them or who is complicit in their crimes are different issues.
By now the question about the future of the Taliban in Pakistan should have become clear. But there are a few factors which need to be accounted for. The first and foremost one is the sovereignty of Pakistan. The sovereignty of a country is not in the hands of or exercised by its judiciary or the military. It is the legislator, the executive, which is the custodian of national sovereignty. In Pakistan, the judiciary and the military are very strong. But their strength is not legal. They are known to be strong because they are above the law. The Registrar of the Supreme Court can refuse to submit financial details to the parliamentary committee on public accounts, and not even the prime minister dare say a word. The Chief Justice of Pakistan on public forums announces that the parliament is not supreme and that it is the judiciary which will decide what is legal and what is not. The military is above every parliamentary or civilian law. Its finances cannot be regulated by a civilian authority even if it is legally entitled to do so (e.g., the Auditor General of Pakistan).
This leaves the legislator/executive powerless. In the past few years, Pakistan’s parliament has not functioned as a sovereign body at all. The present legislators were elected mainly because the Taliban openly supported them by giving protection to their rallies and the likes of the PPP and the ANP could not act more than holding small and mostly ‘spontaneous’ corner meetings (as opposed to huge rallies by the PML-N and the PTI). This is a good indicator to show who wields the real power. There are vast tracts of land all over Pakistan where Pakistan where the Taliban rule and even collect taxes. FATA is controlled by the Taliban; outside Quetta, it is the Taliban who make decisions; in South Punjab, the local administrations co-opt Taliban in various administrative affairs. Despite the blackout by the media, people of Karachi know that in most of the Pashtun areas it is the Taliban who rule. Thus, it is only a matter of time when Pakistan will become a stateless society. The very fact that the government of Pakistan will soon be initiating a dialogue with the Taliban on the basis of parity is evidence of the fast withering away of the national sovereignty. With the military and the judiciary functioning as ‘safe, secure and protected’ mafias, there is no other power in Pakistan other than the Taliban which can fill in the void left by the failure of the legislator as a sovereign body.
The future of the Taliban is bright in Pakistan. They will not take over Islamabad from where they can deal with the world. No. This will not suit them. Nor will their supports in the Middle East or in Pakistan be comfortable with such a scenario. With time, they will gain more and more power and clout. The ‘elected’ government of the time will look up to them for guidance and will beg for their mercy around Christmas and Muharram, so bloodshed is avoided. The minorities such as the Shias, the Ahmadis, the Christians, and the Hindus will continue to live in fear; their finest brains will either migrate or be killed or converted. There is only one scenario which will see the end of the Taliban tyranny in Pakistan: Democracy is allowed to function and elections are held without any interference from the military or judiciary. Through the social media (Facebook, twitter, blogs), Pakistani liberals must continue to try to convince the people of Pakistan that their solution lies in democracy, social justice, economic well being, and human rights, and not in the Talibanic obscurantist ideology which will take them to the dark ages. Pakistani liberals should also take up various issues on international forums such as the United Nations, various courts of justice and, above all, various academic institutions internationally. Pakistan has been going through a night journey, and this journey may grow darker. But the unceasing efforts of liberal intellectuals will succeed in the end. The night will certainly be replaced by the light of morning. But this is possible only if the liberals remain patient, persistent, and steadfast. The likes of Viewpoint, Roshni, and Let US Build Pakistan have been doing a great job educating the people of Pakistan. Activists on Facebook and Twitter are working very hard to educate people. There is a great need to expand this good work in local languages too. The good news for Pakistan’s liberals and minorities is that evil is self-destructive. This is possible only when good keeps up its work despite all odds. We can defeat the Taliban by strengthening and enlightening the people of Pakistan. Strengthening democracy and other forms of public representation is the fundamental condition for it.
| Abbas Zaidi is the author of Two and half words and other stories, published by Savvy Press, New York, and Language shift; Sociolinguistics lives of two Punjabi generations in Brunei Darussalam, published by Classic Books Lahore |
http://www.viewpointonline.net/the-future-of-taliban.html
The hardcore Taliban will not win. This is the easiest prediction to make as well as the safest
There is much speculation about what may or may not happen when the US withdraws from Afghanistan in 2014. The Paknationalist view is that this will be followed by the collapse of the “puppet regime” in Afghanistan and victory for “our friends”, the Taliban.
The official NATO position is that they hope a “broad based regime” in Kabul will survive (with continued NATO assistance) and the Taliban will either “rejoin the national mainstream” or remain a mostly rural insurgency in the Pakhtoon region.
The official Pakistani position (as opposed to the deniable Pak nationalist position) is a bit of a mystery but my left wing friends seem to lean towards the notion that the deep state has a devious plan. That the election of PTI in KP is part of that plan. And that plan involves an alliance with all the “good Taliban” to take maximum advantage of the chaos that will supposedly follow the American withdrawal.
With the whole region infested with intelligence agencies and their double and triple-dealing agents as well as sundry crooks, warlords, hucksters and smugglers, there is no way a far away amateur observer can claim to know what is going on in detail. But we can still make some broad guesses based on published news, anecdotal accounts and some general notions about history and human society, so here goes:
The hardcore Taliban will not win. This is the easiest prediction to make as well as the safest. The last Taliban regime conquered most of Afghanistan only after the country had been thoroughly and completely destroyed by the US-Pakistani-Saudi Jihad operation. Even then, success against other ragtag groups of extortionists and religious fanatics was only possible with the critical assistance of superior Pakistani technology and organization. Everything from the rudimentary banking system to the rudimentary communications network was provided by GHQ. Other powers like India, Iran and Russia supported other groups, but nobody had the access or the resources that Pakistan had developed during its long American-sponsored intervention in Afghanistan.
All that has changed. The current Afghan regime and its urban centers are not the same devastated country that the CIA-ISI gifted to the Jihadi warlords and Taliban. The US has completely switched sides and still has huge resources it can commit to the current regime. Russia, Iran and India are all determined to avoid a second coming of the Taliban. Last but not the least, the Taliban themselves are not one firmly disciplined group. The Mullah Umar group may have significant legitimacy in the eyes of all jihadi factions, but the young Turks of the TTP don’t really take orders from anyone. The Haqqani network is supposed to be a “veritable arm” of the finest intelligence agency in the world, but 10 years of double and triple games cannot have failed to take a toll on that beautiful relationship. The core dream may be intact but it has to work with the REALLY insane fanatics of the TTP type on one side, the more moderate nationalist and pragmatic local Afghan leaders on the other, and a Pakistani intelligence service that is, at a minimum, playing all three sides. Nothing good will come of it.
In fact I will go out on a limb and make a bolder prediction: there won’t be even a temporary phase in which the finest intelligence agency in the world tries to revive a coalition of “good Taliban” to get a piece of the pie in Afghanistan. Well before the Americans leave, the Pakistani establishment will suffer a final unpleasant rupture with its beloved good Taliban. ALL Taliban, good, bad and ugly, will be at war with the Pakistani state AND the American supported Afghan state. It doesn’t matter whether the deep state has or has not arranged the MMA-2 (PTI and JI) coalition in KP to ensure smooth sailing for its plans. Those plans (if they exist, by now, who knows) will come to nothing. The ruling elite is the ruling elite. Their future is as part of globalized capital (American, Chinese, Saudi, it hardly matters). Even Imran Khan will be re-educated and will discover how important it is to bomb terrorists in FATA. This may sound like a bold prediction to some, but war with the Taliban is coming as surely as the cart follows the horse.
I think the incompetent, corrupt and rickety Pakistani state manages to survive, but with difficulty and in a very messy way. If it turns out to be weaker than I imagine, then it will go down fighting. And in that case “int-com” (to use Noam Chomsky’s useful term) will have to find a way to distribute the pieces. I think this is the less likely outcome. I think the state will survive. But I also think a confused and messy war with the Taliban will continue for many years yet.
Of course the Taliban will not be the only problem around. The wholesale robbery that has become the dominant modus operandi of the ruling elite will create crises everywhere. But if India, with many many more poor people and an equally rapacious elite can survive, so can Pakistan. Bold prediction number two: democracy will also survive…and will be an important element in the survival of the state. Pakistan is really close to the point where basic democratic institutions become so “normal” that the system no longer seems fragile. The problem of Pakistan’s foundational myths will continue to haunt the system (Islami nizam, nazria Pakistan, the hypocrisy required to operate a modern parliamentary system alongside those notions) but once the army is no longer spending good money getting Farmaan Reality to undermine the system, the system will survive.
As it does, there will be an opening for a genuine social-democratic party. And for smaller parties to its left. Lets hope someone is working on that. Fingers crossed.
http://www.viewpointonline.net/what-next-for-the-taliban.html
The comment by Abbas Zaidi in his article; The future of Taliban is not only silly but also against all facts, documentation and even an un-patriotic effort to malign the 200 million Pakistanis.
I do not know the reason, no wait a minute, I do know the reasons behind such laughable anti-Pakistan propaganda. This site is dedicated to un-building Pakistan because of religious differences and unfortunate brutal attacks on Ahmedia community by a tiny minority of hardcore extremists.
I come from Pakistan and from my mother’s side, I have many Ahmedi relatives. I know the anger and frustrations being experienced by the community. But from there to talk about Taliban taking over Pakistan or even talking about it is way out of any reason or rime.
The author has forgotten many facts. First there are 200 million Pakistanis who are peaceful, kind and loving. The Pakistan military is the 6th largest in the world-professional, well armed and highly trained and few thousands Taliban would be wiped out in few hours if they ever dreamt to make such foolish move. The Swat operation is a good proof.
So please do criticize the policies of governments but do not be anti-Pakistan.
Bullshit. ISI person or Qari DB?
I have not made any comment. Somebody has used my name. I have great respects for LUBP and it’s heroic struggle.
Bashy