Pakistan Elections 2013: Predictive Results – by Abdul Nishapuri
Pakistan’s general election on 11 May 2013 will mark the first time a democratically elected government in the country has been succeeded by another. Since independence from Britain in 1947, civilian rule has been repeatedly overturned by military coups, the last led by General Pervez Musharraf who held power from 1999 until 2008, when democracy was restored.
The election is also remarkable for its relative unpredictability following a significant constitutional devolution of central government power in 2010 under the presidency of Asif Ali Zardari (of Pakistan Peoples Party PPP), and the linked development of a more open, freer public discourse. Demographic pressures, economic and security worries, the advent of social media and numerous new challenges to the hegemony of the established parties have added to the uncertainty. Generally the elections is being seen as a tough contest between allegedly pro-Taliban parties and anti-Taliban parties.
Pakistan’s population totals roughly 190 million, of whom an estimated two-thirds are under 30. About 92 million of the total are adults aged 18 or over, and of them, 84.4 million are registered voters.
The issues that may shape the outcome are more clear-cut. Islamist right-wing opposition parties in particular PML-N (led by Nawaz Sharif), PTI (led by cricket turned politician Imran Khan), JUI-F (led by Maulana Fazlur-Rehman Deobandi) are known for their sympathetic and apologist stance towards Taliban and pro-Al Qaeda Deobandi-Wahhabi militants. In contrast, Pakistan Peoples Party and its secular allies Awami National Party and Muhajir Qaumi Movement have taken a clear stance against Takfiri terrorists and their sponsors.
Five terrorist attacks by Takfiri Deobandi militants of Taliban and Lashkar-e-Jhangvvi (akas Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat Deobandi or Sipah-e-Sahaba) since 11 April have killed 24 people, including lethal bomb explosions at election rallies of secular parties (ANP, MQM, PPP) in Peshawar, Khuzdar, Karachi, Kohat and other areas.
Pakistan’s economy has been battered by three years of successive floods from 2010 to 2012 that damaged the country’s agricultural heartlands. Power cuts are endemic, with some rural areas receiving only four hours of electricity a day. Clean water and food, adequate education and healthcare remain beyond the reach of many Pakistanis. Crime and unemployment are big issues in the cities. However, PPP government has been able to offer some relief through the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) and other social welfare and uplift projects.
Pakistan’s elections largely follow the Westminster first-past-the post system, although 70 seats are reserved for women and minorities and allocated by PR. Candidates on 11 May will seek seats in the lower chamber of the national assembly and in the four provincial assemblies – Punjab, Sindh, Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly North-West Frontier Province).
A total of 172 out of 272 directly elected seats is required for a governing majority in the national assembly, although no single party is expected to achieve that. At present a caretaker government is in place. An independent election commission has been created to oversee the polls, and outside organisations such as the EU have agreed to send observers. Most commentators expect the election to produce another coalition government after a possibly prolonged period of wrangling. However, given the lack of level playground (in the shape of incessant attacks on ANP, MQM, PPP by pro-Taliban parties), liberal secular voters may be too scared to come out and vote parties of their choic.
Based on careful analysis of various opinion surveys as well as historical patterns of voters choice, the following is a summary of predictive results (perhaps a wish list) of general elections in Pakistan on 11 May 2013.
According to pro-progressive estimates, no single party may be able to gain simple majority in the National Assembly of 272 seats. However, as in most previous elections in Pakistan, Pakistan People Party (PPP) of slain Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto may emerge as single largest party (80 seats) followed by right-wing PML-N (70 seats), PML-Q (22), MQM (20), ANP (18), PTI (15), JUI-F (5) and PML-F (4). Other smaller parties and independent candidates are expected to win 38 seats. There may be a plus minus variance of 10 per cent anticipated in this estimate.
The following is a tabular and schematic presentation of the expected results.
In summary, given that it is provided with level playground and results are not marred by visible and indirect rigging, PPP will be the single largest party and the Islamist PML-N will be second. PTI will be relatively smaller player with only 15 (max 25) seats in the parliament.
For contextual understanding, here is an overview of results of 2008 general elections:
2008 results in Urdu: http://www.bbc.co.uk/urdu/pakistan/2013/05/130502_pakistan_elections_2008_map.shtml
Compiled from following sources:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/02/guide-to-the-pakistan-election
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistani_general_election,_2008
Pakistan Democracy Review: Did PPP implement its vision of Roti, Kapra, Makan? – by Raja Asad Abbas
PPP will win at least 100 seats, Inshallah.
This is 2008 results. This time PPP has much better prospect due to BISP and other great schemes.
http://www.app.com.pk/election/
it´s quite complex PPP is much better as compare to 2008 , on what basis PPP is strong now ??? it´s hard to answer.
in PPP regime biggest damaged reacched kashmir cause, no further improvement were observed since Mushraf Regime. Pakistani Rs reached high devaluation in this government, No control on electricity loadsheeding , moreover heavy corruption ,Government jobs are sold on certain amount.PPP Politician have no plan how to get rid of poverty. if we try to count the drawback of PPP regime , these are countless. PPP govt spent five years just on the name of Reconciliation (Mufahemat). How you say PPP is strong and make strong the country.
@Yaseen
PPP has benefited at least 7 million families through the BISP. It has also helped millions others through agricultural reforms and higher returns on crops.
Also bear in mind that right wing vote is divided this time because PML-N, PTI , JI, MDM etc are all cutting each other’s throat making it easy for secular parties.
For your information Mr. Ihsan,
Social security payments are considered a burden on economy of developed countries and we are under-developed country. Means, its devastating for the economy to distribute Rs. 1,000 to 7 million families (as per your statement) monthly which add nothing to the economy but a looser’s act to shut the mouth of the poor. This equally applies to tandoor schemes and laptop, ujala scheme, danish schools, metro bus, forcefully employing the unemployed in already dead corporations like PIA, Steel Mill, Ministries, Wapda etc. Whenever you try to put money in the mouths of voters without thinking about the sources from where to raise that money without true contribution to GDP, and how will your nasals serve the debt after 20-30 years, you should never count to us the benefits of PPP’s last 5 years.
PPP lacks true performance in 80% cases. I do appreciate the positive initiatives but in general, PPP ruined Pakistan further, in addition to Mush era. You were granted autonomous right to play i at least 3 provinces and you failed to deliver harmony, prosperity, peace and growth. I don’t know till when you guys will continue to defend Zardari’s acts, but your kids will ask Y abba Y Zardari? and hopefully you will be ashamed of your past. Another 5 years will only devastate Pakistan’s economy to new heights.
In 2008, Pakistan Peoples Party got 10,606,486 votes which represent 30.6% of total votes cast.
In 2013, Imran Khan will secure 5,000 to 25,000 votes per seat which will cause a huge dent to PML-N’s seats and an increase in PPP’s seats.
100 seats for PPP are no problem.
PTI will win only 5 or less seats.
It is not the political parties but small provinces are being punished for ruling the federation; first by making a coalition with the PPP and then electing Asif Ali Zardari, the most disliked person in Punjab, as the president of Pakistan
Yes, elections are hijacked. They are hijacked by both visible and invisible forces. Visible force is a holy or unholy alliance of religious/jehadi parties, some worthy judges of the Supreme and High courts and jehadi media who support, or are supported by, Taliban.
The invisible force is which always works behind the scene and is never comfortable with civilian democratic dispensation. These forces are entrenched in all the state institutions and have paralyzed the law of the country and the law-enforcing agencies. Even the Chief of the Army Staff, General kiyani, seemed helpless when he, while addressing at Martyrs’ Day at GHQ, urged upon the people to stop questioning the need to fight the militants. He said, “We cannot afford to confuse our soldiers and weaken their resolve with such misgivings.”
The Supreme Court’s observations and judgments, Election Commission’s unusual directives delivered almost on daily basis, the shenanigans done earlier by returning officers and malicious campaign against politicians launched by media, particularly private TV news channels, have made the general elections completely soulless.
Even in Punjab, perhaps except Lahore, one finds no spirit and enthusiasm among the general public. One has traveled from Multan to Rawalpindi last week, a distance of 550 kilometers in the heart of Punjab province, and rarely saw flags and banners on houses, shops and other buildings of political parties contesting elections. The atmosphere is dull and usual election ‘festivity’ is out of sight. Only supporters of contesting candidates seem active here and there while the general public has subtly been kept away from the electoral process. This trick by anti-people and anti-democracy forces is a unique type of pre-poll rigging which may result in very low voters’ turn-out.
The terrorists have come out, particularly, in Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) provinces, to help the political parties of their choice by initiating all-out attacks and bombing leaders, workers and rallies of rival political parties. The Taliban have declared that they would target the three parties i.e. Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), Awami National Party (ANP) and Muthida Qaumi Movement (MQM), the partners of coalition government which ruled the federation for the last five years. By isolating these three parties, the Taliban, in other words, have shown their love for the parties based in Punjab except JUI-F which has support in KPK but has soft corner for the jehadis.
The leaders of PPP, ANP and MQM have warned, “If elections are held keeping our three parties (Pakistan Peoples Party, Muttahida Qaumi Movement and Awami National Party) out of the election process, its results will be meaningless and will not be acceptable.” During the past two to three days through holding press conferences and meetings they had drawn attention of the Election Commission of Pakistan, caretaker government and other institutions to the conspiracy aimed at keeping the three parties out election campaign enthusiastically.
Ironically, the Chief Election Commissioner has admitted his failure in protecting the leaders and workers of the three parties. He has said, “We can guarantee free and fair elections if the government can ensure security.” The CEC Mr Ebrahim made this statement while presiding over a session held to review election-related issues. He further said that maintaining law and order was not under the Election Commission’s control.
Interestingly, the media have cleverly dubbed the targeted political parties as the left-wing parties. A Dawn reporter while reporting the decisions of Election Commission said, “Various political parties have come under terror attack following the announcement of election date, with left-wing parties being the main target.”
However, insiders of these three parties allege that it is not the political parties but small provinces are being punished for ruling the federation; first by making a coalition with the PPP and then electing Asif Ali Zardari, the most disliked person in Punjab, as the president of Pakistan. During the past five years Punjab was kept away or it chose to remain away while federation made crucial decisions. Now, the Punjabi establishment entrenched in all state’s institutions is taking ‘revenge through electoral process’. All the forces that hate PPP and for that matter its allies in small provinces are united to break the power of ‘small provinces’ through containing their representative political parties and blocking their way to the parliament. Obviously, the most effective tool in this regard are the Taliban.
http://www.viewpointonline.net/election-as-best-revenge.html
Despite huge gatherings, the PTI is not going to win. It will only spoil votes of other parties in many constituencies. One thing the PTI will do in these elections worth applause, is denting the votes of religious parties, especially Jamat e Islami. In Pakhtunkhwa, the decline of ANP will not be due to the Tsunami but only due to the incumbency factor. But still, the ANP will perform good and will win many seats despite no campaign at all.
LUBP is a Zionist -Hindu website.
They are better than hypocrites ( Munafiiqeen).
The centre-left, secular Pakistan People’s party (PPP) of the assassinated former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, remains Pakistan’s foremost political force. It led the outgoing government in coalition with other parties, controls the Sindh assembly, and participates in ruling coalitions running all the other provinces bar Punjab. Bhutto’s widower, Asif Ali Zardari, holds the presidency (he is due to stand down in September), and their son, Bilawal, is the party’s new leading light. But the PPP is expected to pay a price for governmental failures and could fall foul to a US-style “throw the bums out” mood among disillusioned voters.
Nawaz Sharif
The conservative, right-leaning PML-N, or Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, is led by Nawaz Sharif, the prime minister ousted in 1999 by Musharraf and the only figure outside the PPP with tested national appeal. Sharif could do well. All the same, the PML-N remains based principally in its Punjab stronghold, where Nawaz’s brother, Shahbaz, is chief minister, and it is unclear how well placed it is to withstand the challenges presented by iconoclastic new entrants.
Imran Khan
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is an insurgent new party led by the former cricket star Imran Khan, which has tapped into popular anger and frustration with the main parties. Making good use of social media and public rallies, the party strongly opposes the US alliance, campaigns for an end to American drone strikes and has adopted a conservative profile favouring an “Islamic democratic welfare state”. But its ability to translate street-level success into parliamentary seats is as yet untested.
The Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) is a leading religious party with links to the Muslim Brotherhood that boycotted the 2008 elections but is taking part this time on an Islamist-nationalist platform. It is a member of the Defence of Pakistan Council that includes other conservative parties such as PTI and leaders of the Punjab-based, nominally-banned Lashkar-e-Taiba. It is to be differentiated from the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-e-Fazl (JUI-F), a clerical party that was part of the MMA coalition of religious parties that was defeated in 2008, but still exercises limited influence.
Other parties include the Karachi-based Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM), originally formed by Urdu-speaking migrants from present-day India known as Mohajirs; the Awami National party (ANP), a secular Pashtun nationalist grouping that controls Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; the Baluchistan National party-Mengal (BNP), which advocates greater autonomy for Baluchistan; the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, comprising former supporters of Musharraf; and Musharraf’s new All Pakistan Muslim League, which appears still-born following his arrest.
Game-changers
General Ashfaq Kayani
The military: so far the army appears to have stayed out of the election process, fulfilling a pledge of non-interference by the chief of staff, General Ashfaq Kayani. If true, this marks a change from the past, when the military and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency covertly encouraged political proxies to further their own agendas. The military remains Pakistan’s single most powerful institution. But tarnished by the unpopular Musharraf, and in the context of a more open, less controlled public discourse, it has been forced to tread more carefully.
Iftikar Chaudhry
The judiciary: activist judges led by the supreme court chief justice, Iftikar Chaudhry, have succeeded in freeing themselves from governmental control since the Musharraf period, when many were arrested. Chaudhry is a self-styled champion of democratic legal rights and while he has sometimes over-reached, he has made judicial independence an uncomfortable reality for politicians. Pakistan’s last two prime ministers were both bested by the supreme court. Now Musharraf has fallen foul of the court, too. If post-election legal disputes ensue, it is possible the next government will require Chaudhry’s blessing.
Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP): The Pakistani Taliban are committed to the forcible overthrow of secular, pro-western governance and the establishment of an Islamist state based on sharia law – and they will wreck the elections if they can. Although a minority, Pakistan’s connivance with the US-led Nato campaign in Afghanistan, and the resulting violent overspill (including the killing of Osama bin Laden), has fed the TTP cause. Other extreme political, religious and separatist groups threaten disruption in Baluchistan, where turnout is usually low as a result of intimidation, in Lahore, Karachi, and in the lawless Federally-Administered Tribal Territories (Fata), where organising any kind of vote is highly problematic.
The Facebook election?
Social media including Twitter and Facebook are having an impact, albeit unquantifiable, on the election, especially among affluent younger voters. According to one study, Khan’s PTI is leading the way. PTI’s website is one of the top 160 most visited in Pakistan, with the older parties trailing far behind. Facebook is the most frequently visited website in the country. But the digital revolution has some way to go. Fewer than one in 10 Pakistanis enjoy internet access, one of the lowest penetration rates in the world.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/02/guide-to-the-pakistan-election
A hypothetical column — 2013 election results
By Shabbir Ahmad KhanPublished: April 29, 2013
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The writer is a PhD scholar at West Virginia University in the US
Today, political prognosticators and pollsters are able to precisely predict election results by applying advanced modelling techniques or scientific pre-poll surveys and multiple regression methods. In this piece, I’m not predicting the outcome of the forthcoming elections in Pakistan but a couple of possible scenarios based on “historical analogy” theories, i.e., the voting behaviour in the past nine elections. As far as the “conspiracy theory” is concerned, it is the PML-N’s turn. After the 2008 elections, international guarantors supposedly gave this assurance to Mr Nawaz Sharif. According to this theory, the PTI will also be given a “reasonable share” in power along with the status of a “party-in-waiting”.
There will be a coalition government as there will be a “hung” parliament with a strong opposition. Small parties and independents will play a major role in the formation of the government. Neither the PML-N, the PTI nor the PPP and PML-Q alliance will get a simple majority, i.e., 137 general seats out of the total 272. As far as the popular vote is concerned, the PML-N will be the single-largest party. The PTI will also gain a huge number of votes. The real test though is the gain in seats. Both the PML-N and the PTI will have more popular votes but less seats compared with their popular vote. Pakistan follows the “first past the post” electoral system where winning candidates have to lead in votes without having the simple majority of total votes polled. In other words, a minority candidate can also win if the votes of other candidates are divided. There will be a huge vote split in the forthcoming elections and the PPP-led coalition could benefit the most.
Let me show you the vertical Manhattan bar chart indicating the gains of three major political forces, i.e., the PML-N (91 general seats expected with the margin of error plus or minus three), the PPP-PML-Q alliance (84 total seats or 68 and 16 respectively), and the PTI (33 seats). The PPP alliance’s net gain fluctuates due to a strong correlation between the PTI bar and the PML-N bar. The higher the PTI bar goes, the PML-N bar decreases and vice versa. Hence, the smaller the difference between the PML-N and the PTI bars, the greater the chances of the PPP bar to go up. The formation of the government depends upon two major factors: 1) the performance of the PTI in terms of seat gains and 2) the seat difference between the PML-N and the PPP-PML-Q alliance. If the difference of seats remains under 12, the PPP-PML-Q alliance with its previous partners (the MQM’s 19 seats, the ANP’s eight seats, the JUI-F’s nine seats, independents/small parties 17 seats) will also be in a position to form the government.
There are two strong reasons of the above-mentioned scenario taking place. The PPP-PML-Q alliance still has a chance to win because of: 1) the PPP’s solid vote bank and 2) historical analogy i.e., in the past, ruling parties which completed their terms got huge electoral success in subsequent elections. Let me put it this way, the military-ousted governments or governments dismissed under Article 58-2(b) never ever came back to power immediately after new elections. It is the first time in history that the PPP is contesting elections after the completion of its constitutional term. As far as the first reason is concerned, the average vote share of the PPP in the previous eight elections is slightly over 30 per cent. This is out of the 43 per cent overall voter turnout percentage in all elections. Statistically, the PPP has a one-third vote share among abstained voters (registered voters who don’t vote), too. My point is that only the PPP’s vote bank is safe, tested and consistent. The PPP can win if it mobilises just its own voters, particularly those who abstained in the last two elections. If the PPP brings 10 to 15 per cent of its “abstained” voters out on polling day, along with its regular voters, it can win the majority seats due to the “vote-split” factor. In a nutshell, the electoral exercise on May 11 is just a trailer and the real movie starts when the elections are over.
Published in The Express Tribune, April 30th, 2013.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/542119/a-hypothetical-column-2013-election-results/
Why hasn’t anyone accounted for the 35 million (50%) bogus votes that have been removed since the last election? Surely, that will have a huge impact on the outcome!
Inshallah.
We will revert to our Purana Pakistan in which there will be no Munafiq Zia-ul-Haq and no Munafiq Najam Sethi.
Purana Pakistan, Purana Pakistan!
Purana Pakistan?? with Zardari?? OMFG! Looks like you still got guts to tolerate them with your own will. Enjoy! I wish you could get those memorable five more years soon.
This kind of prediction is bold and something everyone is dreading. Not because they hate the PPP or love PML-N / PTI, it is because the propaganda would not have worked! What will happen to Ansar Abbasi, Shaheen Shebai, Kamran Khan, Hamid Mir, Kashif Abbasi etc?
ماضی کے انتخابات میں پارٹی پوزیشن
آخری وقت اشاعت: بدھ 8 مئ 2013 , 08:40 GMT 13:40 PST
پاکستان میں گزشتہ پچیس برس کے دوران ملک میں چھ مرتبہ انتخابات ہوئے جن کے نتائج کے مطابق پارٹی پوزیشن کچھ یوں تھی
http://www.bbc.co.uk/urdu/pakistan/2013/05/130508_election2013_party_position_past_elec_zs.shtml
Five Rupees:
Finally, a generic prediction of sorts:
1) PML-N might be on the defensive these days but it still appears to be strong in Punjab and Hazara division, and will most likely be the biggest party in parliament. Their aim was to remain within 30 seats of the magical 137-seat mark. I don’t see that happening, so expect a bits-and-pieces coalition if the PML-N does come out on top;
2) The PTI’s election campaign has been impressive, and Imran Khan’s rapid-fire rally mechanism, and of course now THE FALL, has given them that second wind they were looking for. That said, it’s hard to predict what their overall haul would be, even if one factors in all sorts of reports coming in from the field. Personally, I’d be very surprised if they got less than 40 seats out of 272 across the country.
3) PPP (31 seats) and MQM (21 seats) to retain their government in Sindh, barring a huge upset by the 10 party alliance led by Pir Pagaro.
4) JUI-F to do well in the trans-Indus districts of KP, parts of northern Balochistan, and maybe even on a couple of seats in Sindh – (I’m quoting Saba Imtiaz on this).
5) The Jamaat Islami will be decimated, and we can all be very happy about it.
6) Nationalists will pick up a plurality of the 14 seats in Balochistan. They will surely be a part of any coalition made at the federal level, as will the MQM.
http://fiverupees.com/2013/05/08/the-definitive-fiverupees-election-post/
The May 11 election appears too close to call, with two main contenders enjoying almost the same voter approval ratings and the third one being not very far behind, the results of an exclusive public opinion poll conducted by the Herald magazine show.A very high 95.1 per cent of the 1285 poll respondents say they are registered to vote and 25.68 per cent of these registered respondents say they intend to vote for Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), 24.98 per cent of them say their vote will go to Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf (PTI) and another 17.74 per cent want to vote for Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP).In Punjab, where more than half of all National Assembly contests will take place, PMLN seems to be the party of choice, with 38.66 per cent of the respondents indicating support for it, followed by PTI at 30.46 per cent. The outgoing ruling party in Islamabad, PPP, is trailing way behind at 14.33 per cent.In Sindh, PPP still enjoys the biggest share of support with 35.21 per cent respondents indicating it as their party of preference, followed by Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) with 19.37 per cent support, PTI with 8.45 per cent support and PML-N with 8.1 per cent among the survey respondents.
In Khyber Pakthunkhwa, PTI is leading with 35.41 per cent support among the respondents while PML-N (with 12.92 per cent support) and Awami National Party (with 12.44 per cent support) are two distant runners-up. Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M) has the highest backing among the poll respondents in Balochistan, at 19.18 per cent, with PPP a distant second at 8.22 per cent. The two parties leading nationally, PML-N and PTI, only have 2.74 per cent and 5.48 per cent support respectively among the respondents in Balochistan.The poll, conducted by the Herald in March 2013 in 42 districts and two tribal agencies across Pakistan and being published in the magazine’s special pre-election issue scheduled to hit newsstands today (Wednesday), also shows high level of distrust among the respondents about the polling process.
Expert survey indicates otherwiseMeanwhile, the results of an exclusive Herald survey, conducted among ten distinguished experts on Pakistan’s electoral politics, indicates that the May 11 election will result in a National Assembly in which none of the three leading parties will win a simple majority of the seats.The survey conducted in March and April 2013, and involving experts from academia, think-tanks and civil society organisations, shows PML-N getting the highest percentage of seats – at 34.89 percent, PPP getting the second highest percentage – at 24.89 percent, and PTI getting the third highest percentage of seats in the National Assembly – at 12.11 percent.In seven experts’ opinion, PML-N will get 30 per cent or above seats – with one of them giving it as high as 44 per cent of seats. Only two experts predict that the party will get less than 30 per cent of seats and none give it below 25 per cent of the seats in the National Assembly.The highest percentage of seats that PPP may get, according to the experts on the panel, is 35 per cent and the lowest is 18 per cent. Two experts believe that PPP will get less than 20 per cent of the seats and three believe that it will get above 30 percent seats; the rest expect it to win anywhere between 22 per cent and 28 per cent of the seats.In PTI’s case, the highest percentage of seats it may win, according to two surveyed experts, is 16 per cent. The party’s lowest expected presence in the National Assembly could well be just seven per cent seats, according to one expert. Other experts believe that PTI will win anywhere from 9 per cent to 15 per cent of the seats in the National Assembly.The results of the survey, being published in the magazine’s special pre-election issue scheduled to hit the newsstands today, also indicate that PML-N will get the highest percentage of votes from among the Hindko-speakers – at 49 per cent, followed by 48 per cent from among Punjabi-speaking voters. Similarly, PPP is likely to get the most percentage of votes from among Sindhi-speakers – at 52 per cent – and from among Seraiki speakers – at 46 per cent.A rather high percentage of Seraiki-speakers – at 43 per cent – may vote for PML-N, according to the experts.Among Pashto-speakers, ANP is likely to get the biggest share of votes at 38 per cent, followed by PTI at 35 per cent. For a large number of Baloch voters, the preferred party seems to be BNP-M, with 45 per cent of them likely to vote for that party, the panel predicted. The second highest vote-getter among the Baloch voters could be PML-N, at 32 per cent.PTI, which is either leading or is seen as being a runner-up in most public opinion surveys, is likely to get the highest percentage of votes only from among the speakers of ‘other’ languages, including the speakers of Kashmiri, Gojiri, and Pothohari languages. Among the Urdu speaking community, however, MQM may take a clear lead by polling 71 per cent of their votes, the survey says.Expert survey indicates otherwiseMeanwhile, the results of an exclusive Herald survey, conducted among ten distinguished experts on Pakistan’s electoral politics, indicates that the May 11 election will result in a National Assembly in which none of the three leading parties will win a simple majority of the seats.The survey conducted in March and April 2013, and involving experts from academia, think-tanks and civil society organisations, shows PML-N getting the highest percentage of seats – at 34.89 percent, PPP getting the second highest percentage – at 24.89 percent, and PTI getting the third highest percentage of seats in the National Assembly – at 12.11 percent.In seven experts’ opinion, PML-N will get 30 per cent or above seats – with one of them giving it as high as 44 per cent of seats. Only two experts predict that the party will get less than 30 per cent of seats and none give it below 25 per cent of the seats in the National Assembly.The highest percentage of seats that PPP may get, according to the experts on the panel, is 35 per cent and the lowest is 18 per cent. Two experts believe that PPP will get less than 20 per cent of the seats and three believe that it will get above 30 percent seats; the rest expect it to win anywhere between 22 per cent and 28 per cent of the seats.In PTI’s case, the highest percentage of seats it may win, according to two surveyed experts, is 16 per cent. The party’s lowest expected presence in the National Assembly could well be just seven per cent seats, according to one expert. Other experts believe that PTI will win anywhere from 9 per cent to 15 per cent of the seats in the National Assembly.The results of the survey, being published in the magazine’s special pre-election issue scheduled to hit the newsstands today, also indicate that PML-N will get the highest percentage of votes from among the Hindko-speakers – at 49 per cent, followed by 48 per cent from among Punjabi-speaking voters. Similarly, PPP is likely to get the most percentage of votes from among Sindhi-speakers – at 52 per cent – and from among Seraiki speakers – at 46 per cent.A rather high percentage of Seraiki-speakers – at 43 per cent – may vote for PML-N, according to the experts.Among Pashto-speakers, ANP is likely to get the biggest share of votes at 38 per cent, followed by PTI at 35 per cent. For a large number of Baloch voters, the preferred party seems to be BNP-M, with 45 per cent of them likely to vote for that party, the panel predicted. The second highest vote-getter among the Baloch voters could be PML-N, at 32 per cent.PTI, which is either leading or is seen as being a runner-up in most public opinion surveys, is likely to get the highest percentage of votes only from among the speakers of ‘other’ languages, including the speakers of Kashmiri, Gojiri, and Pothohari languages. Among the Urdu speaking community, however, MQM may take a clear lead by polling 71 per cent of their votes, the survey says.
http://dawn.com/2013/05/08/herald-exclusive-pml-n-pti-are-neck-to-neck/
Forecast of parties’ position in elections 2013 by Dr. S. M. Taha & Mr. Moiz Khan, University of Karachi.
PMLN 75
PPP 65
PTI 45
MQM 19
PMLQ 12
ANP 6
JUIF 6
PMLF 4
Others 40
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=611461802218823&set=a.185159374849070.43142.100000650252844&type=1&theater
Here is the 4th and second last version of Elections 2013 Predictions. Please download the attached PDF file to see full seat-by-seat details.
We predict the following numbers of seats in the national assembly for the following parties:
PMLN 110
PPP 41
PTI 32
MQM 18
PMLQ 6
JUI 10
JI 9
PMLF 7
ANP 4
Independents 20
Misc. 15
PKP-Election2013-Predictions-v4 (PDF 281K)
http://pkpolitics.com/2013/05/06/elections-2013-predictions-v4/
Naya Pakistan, an old fable: Ayesha Siddiqa
MAY 10, 2013
There is the ideal scenario that the Imran Khan ‘tsunami’ sweeps the elections. Although, it is not likely to happen, we must shudder at the thought of what this storm might do in the name of change. Pakistan is a great country where the elite abuse others by calling them elite and thus worth targeting. The PTI support base will hound anyone and everyone who is not part of their elite base.
The other possibility is for the PTI to get a maximum of 30-35 seats. This case involves a double whammy of not being the tsunami that was expected and being forced to make a coalition with the less perfect parties in order to then form the government. This is a case in which the PML-N may get around 90 seats, limiting Nawaz Sharif from making a coalition. Then the PTI would have to make a government in coalition with the PPP, JUI-F, MQM, ANP and JI. Under the circumstances, the PTI could opt to sit in the opposition, in which case it will do nothing but ensure that the government falls as quickly as possibly paving way for next elections. The third option, of course, is making coalition with some of these parties that Imran Khan has lambasted all this while. The third option could break the party as its ideological base will get frustrated and even whither away.
One of the pre-conditions of the change mantra is that the PPP will lose badly. Some enthusiasts have even predicted the party getting limited to ten seats in the entire country, which is wishful thinking. The party will make gains in Sindh even though it is likely to lose about 15 odd seats there out of a total of 61. It is likely to gain another 15 or so from Punjab and perhaps 2-3 in KP. The total will then be over 75, which gives it a safe margin to form a coalition with the help of MQM, ANP and/or JUI-F. Such a scenario is likely to en masse depression amongst those who hope for change. For them, it is unbelievable that the PPP could manage to form government again, given its lacklustre performance. It is indeed a fact that the People’s Party did nothing to help ordinary people except provide jobs and other opportunities to its clients. This system contributed tremendously in damaging the fledgling education system in its own home province in Sindh where a large number of schools are used as stables or stores for the local waderas (landed-feudal). Some such schools will hopefully be vacated on orders of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to serve as polling stations. People in Sindh will vote for the PPP because the other alternative is hardly an option. Sindhis were of the view that the PPP at least they could abuse, but not the Pir Pagaro who is a spiritual leader and cannot be taken to task the same way as any other stakeholder.
Interestingly, the PPP is absent from the electoral scene. None of its leaders is out there campaigning. Bilawal Bhutto has security concerns and Asif Ali Zardari is barred from political activity. In any case, it would not benefit the party if Zardari’s face is shown too often as part of the campaign. The party continues to use the dead Bhuttos to muster support. Lately, it has also engaged in negative publicity against the PML-N, a party that seems to be under fire from three sides: the Army, PTI and the PPP. The Sharif brothers and the larger Sharif family are bending backwards to showcase their successes such as the Metro Bus project in Lahore. This is a transport project that services north and south Lahore. While there is a lot of criticism of the project, it does provide relief to many in the city especially the lower-middle class.
The PML-N also distributed free laptops to students to check the PTI’s growing popularity amongst the youth. In many ways, the PML-N is obsessed with Imran Khan, who appears to be the only one with the capacity to thwart their chance to rule the country for next five years. The Sharifs believe that they should now get an opportunity to form government.
Their obsession to return to power in Islamabad also pertains to the unfortunate way in which their government was ended in 1999 and they were packed off to Saudi Arabia in forced exile. Which is also why the army is divided in its support of the PML-N. It is popularly believed that the GHQ at Rawalpindi is likely to tolerate the younger brother, Shahbaz Sharif, over the older, Nawaz Sharif. The younger one is seen as a satisfactory administrator who will play ball with the army. It is the older brother that the generals don’t like as he is the one who is ideologically poised and less willing to take it lying down from the army.
In a recent interview with the Indian journalist Karan Thapar, Nawaz Sharif talked about setting up an inquiry commission on Kargil. He is also not ready to forgive Pervez Musharraf and many generals feel he will not be compromising. Many observers, therefore, argue that Sharif’s ascendency to power will offer a major challenge for civil-military relations. People in touch with inner circles of the army and the ISI talk about the apprehension that Nawaz Sharif’s government will be a death knell for the military’s influence. These sources even suggest that the confrontation could be avoided if Nawaz Sharif opts to become Pakistan’s Sonia Gandhi and lets someone else from the party become prime minister.
That, however, is not his style.
It is worth appreciating that forming a government is a matter of life and death for both PTI and PML-N (the PPP is psychologically and emotionally more of a spoiler this time). The Sharifs do not want to lose any seats. This compulsion is one of the many reasons that forced PML-N into a seat-adjustment alliance with the political wing of the banned Deobandi militant outfit, Sipha-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP) which is contesting elections under the banner of Ahle Sunnat wal Jamaat (ASWJ). The agreement is meant to capture thousands of SSP votes scattered all over Punjab and Sindh. It could also be argued that this partnership is a natural extension of the deal which was struck between the PML-N and the SSP way back in 2008. According to this deal, the SSP had agreed not to contest elections against Shahbaz Sharif and not to physically hurt the family in return for the party providing jobs to SSP workers and freeing one of its key leaders, Malik Ishaq, provided that the courts freed him. The agreement worked out well for both.
It was also this relationship that General Kiyani alluded to in one of his recent speeches. The only issue is that Kiyani’s warning is too little too late. Allowing militant outfits to contest elections is bound to provide them greater depth and penetration in the society. It will further radicalisation, which does not bode well for religious minorities.
The final outcome of the elections is a big mystery. The answer depends on several imponderables, starting with where the youth will put its weight.
http://kafila.org/2013/05/10/naya-pakistan-an-old-fable-ayesha-siddiqa/
This one from PML-N propaganda website:
Voting Guide for PTI
Elections, Featured Articles — April 29, 2013 133 comments
While PTI is getting stronger in many urban areas of Punjab, there are several rural seats where PTI stands no chance due to absence of strong candidates, which is unfortunately a must in rural politics of Pakistan.
Here is the list of 40 seats where neck-to-neck competition is expected between the candidates of PMLN against PPP/PMLQ coalition. Any votes for PTI in range of 5,000 ~ 20,000 votes can easily make PPP/PMLQ win by reducing PMLN votes, which effectively means that votes for PTI would become votes for Zardari. The winning and runner up candidates are expected to bag votes around 70,000 ~ 80,000 votes each.
The following candidates from PPP/PMLQ coalition can win easily if PTI looses their seats by getting between 5,000 ~ 20,000 votes:
NA-51 PPP Raja Pervez Ashraf
NA-61 PMLQ Chaudhry Pervez Elahi
NA-64 PPP Nadeem Afzal Chan
NA-75 PPP Tariq Bajwa
NA-77 PMLQ Chaudhry Zaheer Uddin
NA-80 PMLQ Rana Asif Tauseef
NA-87 Ind Faisal Saleh Hayat (Supported by PMLQ)
NA-89 ASWJ Molana Ahmed Ludyanvi
NA-92 PPP Haji Ishaq
NA-102 Ind Shakat Bhatti (Supported by PMLQ)
NA-103 Ind Liaqat Bhatti (Supported by PMLQ)
NA-104 PMLQ Chadhry Wajaht Hussain
NA-107 PMLQ Rehman Naseer
NA-108 PPP Tariq Tarrar
NA-109 PPP Nazar Gondal
NA-111 PPP Firdos Ashiq Awan
NA-113 PMLQ Ali Asjad Malhi
NA-114 PMLQ Maqsood Sulehria
NA-116 PPP Tariq Anees
NA-130 PPP Samina Khalid Ghurki
NA-134 PMLQ Khurram Munawwar Manjh
NA-138 PMLQ Sardar Mohammad Tufail
NA-141 PMLQ Sardar Asif Nakai
NA-142 PMLQ Sardar Talib Nakai
NA-143 PMLQ Rai Aslam Kharal
NA-144 PPP Shafiqa Sikandar Rao
NA-145 PPP Samsan Bokhari
NA-146 PPP Manzoor Watto
NA-147 PPP Manzoor Watto
NA-151 PPP Abdul Qadir Gillani
NA-153 PPP Rana Qasim Noon
NA-164 PMLQ Peer Mohammad Shah Khagga
NA-171 PPP Khawaja Shiraz Mehmood
NA-176 PPP Arshad Abbas Qureshi
NA-177 PPP Malik Ghulam Rabbani Khar
NA-181 PPP Sardar Bahadur Khan
NA-186 PMLQ Tariq Basheer Cheema
NA-188 PMLQ Syed Asghar Shah
NA-190 PPP Zafar Iqbal Chaudhry
NA-192 PPP Ghulam Rasool Koreja
NA-196 PPP Javed Iqbal Warraich
These 40 seats can be game changer and can bring back the same coalition government for another 5 years if not voted wisely.
http://pkpolitics.com/2013/04/29/voting-guide-for-pti/
LUBP has been flooded b Pundits and Najoomis. One whose prediction come true will be awarded honorary membership of Zindiqa and alloted 70 killas in the Bolywood area of heaven.
Amused.
Despite that, all sorts of predictions are being made as to who will form the next government; the popular battle seems to be between Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-N and the former- cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). A couple of weeks ago, the prediction looked like the PML-N getting around 100 National Assembly seats (out of 342) versus 65-70 by the PPP, with PTI trailing behind at 30-35. Now, closer to election, it seems that the PTI and PML-N are in a neck-to-neck fight. The PPP may still retain around 60 seats, mainly due to its support in rural Sindh. –
See more at: http://tehelka.com/embracing-the-future-while-stuck-in-the-past/#sthash.G5WrBtwY.dpuf
Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
We should be ready for another coalition government with at least one provincial government opposing the federal government
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
The final outcome of election is only 24 hours away but it can be said that no party seems to form federal government on its own
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
Concentration of votes in a particular constituency & security situation on the day of poll are other major determinants of election results
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
Electoral result would depend whether all registered voters go to cast their vote.
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
Like all other surveys, SDPI’s survey is also a perception survey.
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
42%of our respondents from Karachi,one third fromBalochistan&almost one quarter fromCentral&Upper Punjab consider election wont be free&fair
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
Gender Factor:The most popular party among female is PML-N followed by PTI.
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
Gender Factor:Among the religious parties the presence of male voters is relatively larger in JI (5.7% male and 3.9% female).
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
Gender Factor:Similarly in case of MQM, 2.1% female and 1.4% males are in favor.
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
Gender Factor:There is some gap in preferences for the case of PPP and MQM. 18% female favor PPP while 16.8% males favor the same party.
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
Gender Factor:The votebank of PML-N and PTI seems to be equally divided among male and female voters.
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
Youth Factor:17.2% are influenced by baradari (cast) or tribe. 20% are influenced by media reporting and talk shows.
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
Youth Factor: 24% don’t consider party affiliation very important and go for candidate’s personal stature
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
Youth Factor:31% of our voters are influenced by party’s program while (cont.)
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
Youth Factor:52% of our respondents were of the age between 18-35 years. Among them, 30% would support PML-N, 27% PTI, and 15% PPP
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
Rural Urban divide (National level):whereas PPP has 19% voters in rural areas against 14% in urban areas.
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
Rural Urban divide (National level):PML-N has 35% voters in rural areas, against 31% in urban areas
(cont.)
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
Rural Urban divide (National level):MQM and PML (F) are other two parties who gather more support from urban areas.
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
Rural Urban divide (National level):PTI has 26% of its voters in urban areas against 20% in rural areas.
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
Balochistan:JI (17%), PTI (10%) and JUI-F (6%) are the other popular parties in Balochistan.
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
Balochistan:Both BNP and PML-N are being supported by 28% each of our respondents
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
KPK and FATA:ANP is the major loser in this province.
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
KPK and FATA:ANP could only bag 6%. KPK seems to be led by PTI with center right parties JUI, and JI following it.
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
KPK and FATA:25% of our respondents tend to vote for PTI, 18% for JUI-F, 17% for JI, and 15% for PPP
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
Sindh:In Karachi, 27% of our respondents would vote for PTI, while PML-N, PPP, and MQM stand at 13.7%, 12% and 15% respectively
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
Sindh:PML-F is second with 18% votes, while PML-N and PTI stand at 13.1% and 10.2% respectively
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 1h
Sindh:In Sindh PPP tops among our respondents with 40% votes (cont.)
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 2h
Punjab:PPP also seems to have some presence in lower Punjab (15%) and it fails to impress in central and upper Punjab (6% and 7%)
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 2h
Punjab:PTI has maximum popularity in central Punjab (36%) and doing well in upper and lower Punjab (29% & 19%).
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 2h
Punjab:PML-N with 49% support emerges as single largest party in lower, central, and upper Punjab, it is followed by PTI (28%) and PPP (10%)
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 2h
The Top four parties for next elections among our respondents include PML-N, PTI, PPP, and JI.
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 2h
MQM seems almost stable with a gain of 0.6% point votes.
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 2h
PML-Q has lost 5.8% point of its votes and ANP has lost 2% points compared to their votes in 2008 elections (cont.)
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 2h
JI appears to be another gainer; it has gained 3% point votes and emerges as 4th popular party among our respondents
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 2h
The gain of PTI and PML-N, compared to 2008 polls, equals to net loss of PPP
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 2h
22% of our respondents have indicated that they would vote for PTI
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 2h
PTI which had boycotted 2008 elections seems to create huge dent on PPP’s vote bank. (cont.)
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 2h
PML-N gained 4% point among our respondents and thus 33% of them would vote for PML-N now
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 2h
Only 18% of our respondents have indicated that they would vote for PPP in next elections. (cont.)
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 2h
2.1% for JI &1.2% for MQM. PPP lost its support by 27% points in May 2013 (cont.)
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 2h
In 2008 elections, 45.1% of our respondents voted for PPP, 29.2% voted for PML-N, 7.7% voted for PML-Q, 3.1% for ANP, 4% for JUI-F, (cont.)
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 2h
Punjab and KPK/FATA were divided in 3 regions, whereas Sindh was divided in 2 regions for capturing voters’ diversity
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 2h
During the survey the respondents were questioned about their political preference
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 2h
5700 respondents were stratified as per the national average for provincial population, gender ratio, urbanization ratio, and age
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 2h
This survey meant to gauge the popularity of different political parties in the context of forthcoming elections
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Abid Qaiyum Suleri @Abidsuleri 2h
During first week of May 2013, SDPI conducted a survey in 55 districts of Pakistan
Such Gup
432 23
Predictions
As all wannabe pundits will tell you, Punjab matters. Whoever wins the Punjab wins Islamabad. So here’s TFT’s take on the 2013 elections in the hotshot province.
We predict 71 NA seats for the PMLN, 22 for PPP, 10 for PMLQ, 24 for PTI, and 21 others including Independents. That makes a total of 148 NA seats. Here’s the regional calculation:
Lahore: PMLN 7, PTI 5, PPP 1 = Total 13.
Sheikhupura: PMLN 5, PTI 3, PMLQ 2, Independents 2 = Total 12.
Gujranwala: PMLN 13, PTI 2, PPP 3, PMLQ 2, Independents 3 = Total 23
Rawalpindi: PMLN 9, PTI 2, PPP 2, Independents 1= Total 12
Faisalabad: PMLN 14, PPP 1, PTI 2, PMLQ 1, Independents 2 = Total 20.
Sargodha: PMLN 4, PTI 2, PPP 2, PMLQ 3 = Total 11
Sahiwal: PMLN 6, PTI 3, PPP 2, PMLQ 1 = Total 12.
Multan: PMLN 5, PTI 5, PPP 4, Independents 2.
Bahawalpur: PMLN 4, PPP 5, PMLQ 2, Others 4.
DG Khan: PMLN 4, PPP 4, Independents 4.
We also predict 170 Punjab Provincial Assembly seats for the PMLN, 28 for the PPP, 20 the PMLQ, 35 for the PTI and 44 for Others and Independents.
http://www.thefridaytimes.com/beta3/tft/article.php?issue=20130510&page=32
PPP wining and forming the next government for 5 years is a worst nightmare becoming reality, ironically a party which could not deliver during their previous 5 year tenure and have nothing more to sell than few dead bodies and hollow slogans. BISP is a verdict against PPP by PPP for destroying the economy of Pakistan due to overburden. If PPP is elected again then Pakistan shall not come out of crippling loop of energy crisis.
PTI remains the wildcard
by Amir Mateen
PPP prospects seem to have improved as it is stronger in areas where politics do not get swayed easily and revolves around the ‘electables’ — namely the feudal belt that starts from South Punjab and goes to Hyderabad on both sides of Indus. PPP is likely to win between 45 and 58 national seats this time —much less than 91 that it got in 2008 but this keeps it in the game. With such numbers it will sure be a king-maker, if not the king (imagine Asif Zardari’s grin). PPP is likely to get 14 to 18 seats in Saraiki belt and another 5 to 8 in central Punjab, 20 to 25 seats in Sindh and 4 to 7 in Pashtunkhwa, FATA, Islamabad, Balochistan.
PML-N might find it difficult to hold on the figure of 90 national seats if PTI’s so-called ‘Tsunami’ swayed the voters’ imagination. The figure could come down to as low as 55.
PML-N remains largely a Punjab party and is likely to get 6 to 10 national electoral seats outside Punjab. It got four seats in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s hazara belt and the situation is more or less the same, if not worse. PML-N has 50 percent chance on two Sindhi seats and even less on two Balochistan seats.
The party is faring badly in its stronghold of Rawalpindi Division, thanks to the rigidness of Chaudhary Nisar and may only get 5 seats out of 13. It is difficult for PML-N to get 75 seats from the rest of Punjab’s 148 as it fares equally bad in south Punjab (from 6 to 10 seats out of 45). The party could be in real trouble if PTI gives it a beating in cities and more jolts on Multan Road, where the former has reasonable ‘electables.’ Also, there will be at least ten independents in Punjab. Independent candidates who have a fair chance of winning are Faisal Saleh Hayat, Raza Hiraj, Asad Hayat, Sahibzada Nazir Sultan, Asghar Shah, Dost Mohammad Mazari, Riaz Fatiana, Nasrullah Dreshak, Jamal and Awais Leghari and Najaf Sial. Not to forget, PML-Q and smaller parties also have potential of winning from 6 to 10 seats.
Other provinces are less complicated. Most parties are winning from three to six seats (including PML-N, JUI-F, ANP, PPP and QWP and JI even less). PTI is the only party that has the potential to win 10 to 13 seats from KP and fata. In Balochistan, most parties are winning one to three seats including JUI-F, NP, BNP-M, PKMAP, PPP, JUI-N, PML-N and the biggest group will be of independents (at least four out of 14).
Sindh may see MQM losing one to three seats from its previous 20 and PML-F and other smaller parties bagging between 8 and 15 seats including independents.
The post-election scenario seems quite dismal if PTI does not pull a grand surprise with a land-slide victory. PML-N will be in big trouble if it emerges as the largest party at around 90 seats. Imran Khan has declared that he will not make a coalition government and we shall see how much he will stick to his words. The only option left will be PPP which will be a disaster for both of them — if not everybody else.
Even if Nawaz Sharif makes his government he may not have governments in at least two of the three provinces (Sindh for sure). Imran Khan too will have problems in provinces as it will be difficult to make governments in at least two provinces (Balochistan and Sindh).
Weak coalition governments in the Centre and provinces are the last thing that this country needs. This might just leave two options: either a government of national consensus or a re-election — may be after a few months of failed experiments. But let’s leave it on a fair note and hope that somebody gets a simple majority.
http://thespokesman.pk/index.php/history/item/4933-pti-remains-the-wildcard
انتخابی دنگل چند گھنٹے دور، 100 سے زائد نشستوں پر کانٹے کا مقابلہ
آخری وقت اشاعت: ہفتہ 11 مئ 2013 , 19:12 GMT 00:12 PST
پاکستان میں گیارہ مئی کو ہونے والے انتخابی دنگل میں سو سے زیادہ نشستوں پر کانٹے کے مقابلے کی توقع ہے۔
گیارہ مئی کا مقابلہ قومی سطح کی تین بڑی جماعتوں اور چار علاقائی جماعتوں یا مذہبی گروہوں میں جمے گا اور جن نشستوں پر سخت مقابلے متوقع ہیں ان میں سے 74 پنجاب میں، 18 سندھ میں، 13 خیبر پختونخوا میں اور 5 بلوچستان میں ہیں۔
عمران خان کی تحریک انصاف نے پاکستان کی روایتی سیاست میں ہلچل مچا دی ہے۔ مبصرین کے مطابق عمران خان کی فتح یا شکست سے کہیں زیادہ اہم وہ متوقع اثر ہے جو ان کی انتخابی مہم ٹرن آؤٹ پر ڈالے گی۔ الیکشن کمیشن کے مطابق مختلف عوامل کی وجہ سے ٹرن آؤٹ ساٹھ فیصد تک متوقع ہے۔
تاہم اس سے قطع نظر تحریک انصاف کے تبدیلی کے نعرے نے ملک کی روایتی سیاسی جماعتوں کو ووٹرز کے ساتھ اپنے رشتے کا تعین از سرِ نو کرنے پر مجبور کر دیا ہے۔ تمام سیاسی پنڈت اس بات پر متفق نظر آتے ہیں کہ عمران خان کی تحریک انصاف پنجاب میں سب سے زیادہ دائیں بازو کے ووٹ بینک کو متاثر کرے گی
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پاکستان میں انتخابی حلقوں کا آغاز صوبہ خیبر پختونخوا سے ہوتا ہے اور اس مرتبہ صوبے میں قومی اسمبلی کی 35 نشستوں کے لیے کل 517 امیدوار انتخابات میں حصہ لے رہے ہیں جن میں 49 سیاسی جماعتوں کے امیدواروں کے علاوہ آزاد امیدوار بھی شامل ہیں۔
اس کے علاوہ وفاق کے زیرِ انتظام قبائلی علاقوں میں قومی اسمبلی کے 12 حلقے آتے ہیں۔
خیبر پختونخوا کے پینتیس حلقوں میں 13 سے حلقے ایسے ہیں جہاں امیدواروں کے مابین کڑے مقابلے کی توقع ظاہر کی جا رہی ہے جبکہ پانچ، پانچ حلقوں پر مسلم لیگ نواز اور جماعتِ اسلامی، چار، چار پر عوامی نیشنل پارٹی اور جمیعت علمائے اسلام، دو پر پیپلز پارٹی اور ایک، ایک پر پاکستان تحریکِ انصاف اور قومی وطن پارٹی کی پوزیشن مضبوط تصور کی جا رہی ہے۔
جن تیرہ حلقوں میں سخت مقابلے کا امکان ہے ان میں سے پشاور اور نوشہرہ کے دو، دو جبکہ مردان، صوابی، کرک، ایبٹ آباد، ہری پور، بٹگرام، ڈیرہ اسماعیل خان، بونیر اور سوات کے ایک، ایک حلقے شامل ہیں۔
ان حلقوں سے کئی اہم قومی و صوبائی رہنما بھی انتخابی عمل کا حصہ بنے ہیں۔
پشاور کے این اے 1 میں پاکستان تحریکِ انصاف کے سربراہ عمران خان عوامی نیشنل پارٹی کے سابق وفاقی وزیرِ ریلوے غلام احمد بلور کے مدِمقابل ہیں۔ غلام بلورگزشتہ انتخابات کے بھی فاتح ہیں اور اس بار اس نشست پر ان دونوں امیدواروں کے مابین ہی سخت مقابلے کا امکان ہے۔
غلام احمد بلور کا مقابلہ پی ٹی آئی کے سربراہ عمران خان سے ہے
ضلع نوشہرہ کے پہلے حلقے این اے 5 نوشہرہ میں جماعتِ اسلامی کے مرحوم امیر قاضی حسین احمد کے صاحبزادے آصف لقمان قاضی کا سامنا پاکستان تحریکِ انصاف کے سیکرٹری جنرل پرویز خٹک کر رہے ہیں جو ماضی میں یہاں سے منتخب ہوتے رہے ہیں۔
ایبٹ آباد کے حلقہ این اے اٹھارہ بھی کانٹے دار مقابلوں کی فہرست میں شامل ہے جہاں تحریکِ صوبہ ہزارہ کے سربراہ بابا حیدر زمان الیکشن لڑ رہے ہیں اور ان کا مقابلہ مسلم لیگ نواز کے مرتضیٰ جاوید عباسی اور تحریکِ انصاف کے سردار یعقوب سے ہے۔
ہری پور میں قومی اسمبلی کے واحد حلقے این اے 19 میں مشرف دور کے وزیرِ مملک برائے خزانہ اور سابق صدر ایوب خان کے پوتے عمر ایوب کو پی ٹی آئی کے راجہ عامر زمان سے سخت مقابلے کا سامنا کرنا پڑ سکتا ہے۔
جمیعت علمائے اسلام کے سربراہ مولانا فضل الرحمان اگرچہ قومی اسمبلی کے 3 حلقوں سے امیدوار ہیں لیکن انہیں سب سے کڑے مقابلے کا سامنا این اے 25 میں ہے جہاں وہ سابق ڈپٹی سپیکر قومی اسمبلی فیصل کریم کنڈی کے مدِمقابل ہیں
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پنجاب کی ایک سو اڑتالیس نشستوں میں سے نصف سے زیادہ پر کانٹے دار مقابلے متوقع ہیں جن میں بنیادی طور پر ان انتخابات کے تین بڑے سیاسی حریف، پاکستان پیپلز پارٹی، نواز لیگ اور تحریک انصاف مد مقابل ہونگے۔
ان میں سے کم از کم سترہ سیٹیں ایسی ہیں جن پر عمران خان کی تحریک انصاف کی جیت کے امکانات باقی جماعتوں کی نسبت قدرے بہتر ہیں۔ ان سترہ نشستوں میں سے بارہ شمالی اور وسطی پنجاب میں جبکہ پانچ جنوبی پنجاب میں ہیں۔ ان سیٹوں کی ایک دلچسپ بات یہ ہے کہ سترہ میں پانچ سیٹیں لاہور کی ہیں۔
اس کے علاوہ صوبہ بھر میں تئیس سیٹیں ایسی ہیں جن میں اگر بڑی تعداد میں شہری طبقے کا نوجوان ووٹ متحرک ہو گیا تو تحریک انصاف تجزیہ کاروں کے اندازوں کے برعکس ایک بڑی جماعت بن کر ابھر سکتی ہے۔ ان تئیس سیٹوں میں سے سولہ شمال اور وسطی پنجاب میں جبکہ سات جنوبی پنجاب میں واقع ہیں۔
لیکن تحریک انصاف کا موجودہ انتخابات پر اثر صرف ان کی جیت کے پیمانے پر ہی نہیں ناپا جا سکتا۔ گیارہ مئی کو پنجاب کے انتخابی معرکے میں چوالیس سیٹیں ایسی بھی جہاں تحریک انصاف کی فتح کی امید تو شاید ایک خواب ہی ثابت ہو لیکن اس کے حاصل کردہ ووٹ اس کی حامی جماعتوں کے نتائج پر براہ راست اثر انداز ہو سکتے ہیں۔
ان میں سے چونتیس سیٹیں شمالی اور وسطی پنجاب جبکہ دس جنوبی پنجاب میں ہیں۔ مبصرین کے مطابق اگر عمران خان کا ووٹ نظریاتی طور پر دائیں بازو کا ووٹ ہے تو ان سیٹوں پر وہ نواز لیگ کو سخت نقصان پہنچا سکتے ہیں۔
پنجاب کی باقی ماندہ اکسٹھ سیٹوں پر، کیونکہ ایک نشست پر انتخابات ملتوی ہو چکے ہیں، تحریک انصاف کی کامیابی تبھی ممکن نظر آتی ہے جب عمران خان جس سونامی کا ذکر کرتے ہیں وہ واقعی ان انتخابات کو بہا لے جائے۔ ایسی سونامی کے بغیر ان سیٹوں پر عمران خان کی فتح انتہائی مشکل نظر آتی ہے۔
عمران خان لاہور سمیت چار حلقوں سے قومی اسمبلی کے امیدوار ہیں
نواز لیگ جسے پنجاب میں تحریک انصاف کا سب سے بڑا حریف سمجھا جا رہا ہے، صوبے کی ایک سو اڑتالیس سیٹیوں میں سے اکیس سیٹوں پر واضح طور پر مستحکم نظر آتی ہے۔ ان میں سے سترہ شمالی اور وسطی جبکہ چار جنوبی پنجاب میں واقع ہیں۔
دو ہزار آٹھ میں پنجاب سے ساٹھ سے زیادہ سیٹیں جیتنے والی نواز لیگ کو اپنی دو تہائی نشستوں پر غیر یقینی صورتحال کا سامنا ہے۔ ان میں سے انتالیس شمالی اور وسطی جبکہ سات جنوبی پنجاب میں واقع ہیں۔
پاکستان پیپلز پارٹی کی صورتحال بھی نواز لیگ سے کچھ زیادہ مختلف نہیں لیکن کانٹے دار مقابلوں میں اس کی فتح کے امکانات نواز لیگ کے مقابلے میں کم دکھائی دیتے ہیں۔
پیپلز پارٹی صوبے بھر میں صرف انیس سیٹوں پر پر اعتماد نظر آتی ہے جن میں سے چودہ جنوبی پنجاب میں ہیں۔ دو ہزار آٹھ میں چالیس سے زیادہ سیٹیں جیتنے والی اس جماعت کے حمایتی امید لگائے بیٹھے ہیں کے عمران خان کم از کم چوبیس سیٹوں پر نواز لیگ کے ووٹ کو اس قدر متاثر کریں گے کہ وہ سیٹیں پی پی پی کی جھولی میں آ گریں گی۔
اس کے علاوہ پیپلز پارٹی کو قاف لیگ سے بھی مدد کی امید ہے جس کے لیے اس نے صوبے میں چوبیس سیٹیں خالی چھوڑی ہیں جبکہ قاف لیگ نے پورے پنجاب میں صرف اٹھائیس امیدوار میدان میں اتارے ہیں
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پاکستان کے صوبہ سندھ میں قومی اسمبلی کے کل 61 حلقے واقع ہیں جن میں سے 60 پر الیکشن ہو رہا ہے جبکہ ایک حلقے این اے 254 میں عوامی نیشنل پارٹی کے امیدوار صادق زمان خٹک کی ہلاکت کی وجہ سے الیکشن ملتوی کر دیا گیا ہے۔
ان 60 حلقوں میں 18 سے حلقے ایسے ہیں جہاں امیدواروں کے درمیان سخت مقابلہ متوقع ہے جبکہ صوبے میں پیپلز پارٹی کو چوبیس، ایم کیو ایم کو تیرہ، مسلم لیگ ف کو دو نشستوں پر برتری حاصل ہونے کا امکان ہے۔ اسی طرح پیپلز مسلم لیگ اور نیشنل پیپلز پارٹی کی بھی ایک ایک نشست پر پوزیشن مضبوط تصور کی جا رہی ہے۔
جن 18 حلقوں میں سخت مقابلہ متوقع ہے ان میں سے پانچ کراچی میں، دو دو دادو، نوشہرو فیروز اور عمرکوٹ میں جبکہ ایک ایک لاڑکانہ، جیکب آباد خیرپور، ٹنڈو الہ یار، تھرپارکر، سانگھڑ اور ٹھٹھہ میں واقع ہیں۔
ان حلقوں سے پیپلز پارٹی، متحدہ قومی موومنٹ اور مسلم لیگ کے اہم رہنما بھی الیکشن لڑ رہے ہیں۔
کراچی کے جن پانچ حلقوں میں سخت مقابلہ متوقع ہے ان میں این اے 249 میں ایم کیو ایم کے ڈاکٹر فاروق ستار کو پیپلز پارٹی کے عبدالعزیز میمن کا سامنا ہے۔
این اے 250 کراچی کا وہ حلقہ ہے جہاں سے سابق فوجی صد پرویز مشرف نے بھی الیکشن لڑنے کا فیصلہ کیا تھا تاہم ان کا کاغذات مسترد کر دیے گئے تھے۔ اس حلقے میں ایم کیو ایم کی خوش بخت شجاعت کا مقابلہ کراچی کے سابق ناظمِ اعلیٰ اور جماعتِ اسلامی کے رہنما نعمت اللہ خان اور تحریکِ انصاف کے رہنما ڈاکٹر عارف علوی سے ہے۔
این اے 253 میں ماضی میں ایم کیو ایم کے حیدر عباس رضوی کامیاب ہوئے تھے تاہم اس بار وہ دوہری شہریت کی وجہ سے الیکشن ہی نہیں لڑ رہے۔ یہاں ایم کیو ایم نے مزمل قریشی کو ٹکٹ دیا ہے جن کا مقابلہ جماعتِ اسلامی کے سابق صوبائی امیر اسد اللہ بھٹو اور پیپلز پارٹی کے محمد مراد بلوچ سے ہے۔
کراچی کے پانچ حلقوں میں ایم کیو ایم کو سخت مقابلے کا سامنا ہے
مہاجر قومی موومنٹ کے سربراہ آفاق احمد نے این اے 255 سےالیکشن لڑنے کا فیصلہ کیا ہے اور ان کے مدِمقابل ایم کیو ایم کے سابق ایم این اے آصف حسنین ہیں۔
سابق وزیراعلیٰ سندھ لیاقت علی جتوئی بھی دادو کے اس حلقے سے مسلم لیگ ن کے امیدوار ہیں جہاں سخت مقابلے کی توقع کی جا رہی ہے۔ این اے 233 میں ان کے مدِمقابل پیپلز پارٹی کے عمران ظفر لغاری ہیں۔
جیکب آباد کے حلقہ این اے 208 سے بھی دو اہم رہنما مسلم لیگ ن کے سابق سپیکر قومی اسمبلی الہی بخش سومرو اور پیپلز پارٹی کے سابق وزیرِ کھیل اعجاز جھکرانی مدِمقابل ہیں۔
این اے 212 نوشہرو فیروز کا وہ حلقہ ہے جہاں پی پی پی کے سابق ایم این اے ظفر علی شاہ کے مسلم لیگ ن میں شامل ہونے کی وجہ سے صورتحال دلچسپ رخ اختیار کرے گی۔ یہاں ان کا مقابلہ سادات برادری کے ہی اصغر علی شاہ سے ہوگا جو پی پی پی کے امیدوار ہیں۔
پاکستان تحریکِ انصاف کے سینیئر نائب صدر شاہ محمود قریشی سندھ میں قومی اسمبلی کی دو نشستوں این اے 228 اور این اے 230 سے الیکشن لڑ رہے ہیں۔ عمر کوٹ میں ان کا مقابلہ پیپلز پارٹی کے نواب یوسف تالپور سے ہے جبکہ تھرپارکر میں نور محمد جیلانی سے ہو گا۔
پاکستان مسلم لیگ نواز نے ٹھٹھہ سے قومی اسمبلی کے لیے ماروی میمن کو بھی ٹکٹ دیا ہے جنہیں علاقے کے بااثر شیرازی خاندان کے ریاض شاہ شیرازی کا سامنا ہے۔ شیرازی خاندان نے ابتدا میں پیپلز پارٹی کی حمایت کا اعلان کیا تھا تاہم بعدازاں انہوں نے یہ فیصلہ تبدیل کر لیا
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پاکستان کے صوبہ بلوچستان میں قومی اسمبلی کی سب سے کم چودہ نشستیں ہیں جن میں سے پانچ پر سخت مقابلہ متوقع ہے۔
اس کے علاوہ تین نشستوں پر مسلم لیگ نون، پختونخوا ملی عوامی پارٹی کی دو جبکہ بلوچستان نیشنل پارٹی( مینگل) اور مسلم لیگ قاف کی ایک ایک نشست پر پوزیشن مضبوط تصور کی جا رہی ہے۔
جن علاقوں میں کانٹے کا مقابلہ متوقع ہے، ان میں جعفر آباد اور نصیر آباد پر مشتمل حلقہ این اے 266 بھی شامل ہے جہاں نیشنل پارٹی کے ڈاکٹر عبدالحئی بلوچ اور آزاد امیدوار سابق وزیراعظم میر ظفر اللہ جمالی کو پیپلز پارٹی کے میر چنگیز خان جمالی کا سامنا ہے۔
اس کے علاوہ خاران، واشک اور پنجگور پر مشتمل حلقہ این اے 271 میں مسلم لیگ نون کے امیدوار لیفٹٹنٹ جنرل (ر) عبدالقادر بلوچ کا مقابلہ پیپلز پارٹی کے احسان اللہ ریکی اور بلوچستان نیشنل پارٹی مینگل گروپ کے جہان زئی بلوچ سے ہو گا۔
اس کے علاوہ کیچ اور گوادر پر مشتمل حلقہ این اے 272 میں سابق وفاقی وزیر تعلیم ڈاکٹر زبیدہ جلال کا مقابلہ نیشنل پارٹی کے ڈاکٹر یاسین بلوچ اور بلوچستان نیشنل پارٹی )مینگل) کے سید عیسیٰ نوری کے ساتھ ہے
http://www.bbc.co.uk/urdu/pakistan/2013/05/130510_election_day2013_zs.shtml
Pakistan Election 2013 Map
You can interactively see 2013 candidates (for PTI, PMLN, PPPP, MQM and others) for each constituency side by side and also compare with 2008 results.
You can also visually view district electoral information (Voters, Population, Number of Constituencies etc.).
Most of the 2013 candidate information is available.
There is also a jump list of constituencies and districts if you are not familiar with Pakistan Map )
this map keeps updating as candidates of other parties are announced
Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/national-political-issues/247297-districts-constituency-map-pakistan-election-2013-a.html#ixzz2SzMyOeuw
الیکشن 2013 کے انتخابی نتائج
آخری وقت اشاعت: بدھ 15 مئ 2013 , 15:47 GMT 20:47 PST
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پاکستان میں گیارہ مئی 2013 کو ہونے والے عام انتخابات میں قومی اسمبلی کے 272 حلقوں میں جیتنے والی جماعتوں اور ان کے امیدواروں کے بارے میں معلوم کرنے کے لیے متعلقہ علاقے پر کلک کریں
http://www.bbc.co.uk/urdu/pakistan/2013/05/130515_pakistan_election2013_map_zs.shtml
I guess you should quit Research & Analysis …
You are not even close to Final Results of Election 2013 ….
🙂
Keep on working, great job!
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