Troubling changes in Pakistan: A coup in the works? – Guest post by Tarek Fatah
What’s in a name? That which we call a rose,
by any other name would smell as sweet
On Thursday morning as Pakistan’s Defence Minister was preparing to board a flight to China for an official visit, he was detained by Pakistani security officials and was told he had been barred from leaving the country. An altercation ensued, but the country’s top civilian defence official was told by the police and soldiers that they take orders from senior generals and judges, not government ministers.
Minister Ahmad Mukhtar was told by the security officials that they were acting on instructions from the National Accountability Bureau, an arm of Pakistan’s intelligence service created by former military ruler Pervez Musharraf to harass political opponents with corruption charges. The Defence Minister was told his name was on an ‘Exit Control List’ even though he has never been convicted of a crime. Clearly, Pakistan has entered a decisive stage. Imagine the U.S. Defence Secretary being detained by U.S. marshals at JFK airport or the RCMP telling Peter MacKay, he cannot leave the country.
What was bizarre about this development is that although it was Pakistani’s Interior Ministry that was supposed to have issued the orders, the Interior Minister himself was named as someone not allowed to travel abroad without special permission. Clearly the administration of the government in Islamabad has been taken over by plainclothes military intelligence officials. A coup by any other name is still a coup. Or as Shakespeare would have said,
What’s in a name? That which we call a rose,
by any other name would smell as sweet
This new development follows Wednesday’s decision by the Pakistani Supreme Court to annul the country’s National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) which had been proclaimed by General Musharraf towards the end of his rule and which had resulted in the withdrawal of thousands of politically motivated criminal charges against the country’s politicians of all stripes, including current president Asif Zardari.
There is lot more to these machinations than meets the eye and the stakes are very high for Canada, the U.S. and the rest of the West. Although the generally pro-Taliban Pakistani media has defined the NRO debate as being about corruption, it is really about the military and intelligence services refusing to accept civilian control.
The end of the NRO should have meant that the cases withdrawn under it would be reinstated and each case would be decided on its merit in various lower courts. Given that most of the cases were never proved after being tried for ten years or so, this should have meant renewed prosecution and early decisions on acquittal or conviction. But the Pakistani judiciary is acting in concert with the anti-Zardari media and the military intelligence apparatus.
Instead of letting the cases return to court and be decided individually, an attempt is being made to create frenzy against the elected government that can result in its overthrow. Some Pakistani judges have consistently sided with anti-western Jihadis and share their hatred of Zardari and his pro-U.S. civilian disposition.
Yesterday, the New York Times reported that parts of the Pakistani military and intelligence services have launched a campaign to harass American diplomats in Islamabad. Its correspondents in Islamabad said the harassment campaign includes “frequent searches of American diplomatic vehicles in major cities” and the refusal by Pakistan’s officials to extend or approve visas for more than 100 American officials.
Pakistan’s ambassador to the U.S. shrugged off the visa delays on the large influx of U.S. diplomats coming to Islamabad, telling CNN they are “simply a matter of process and conformity of Pakistani rules and procedures.”
Hardly convincing considering the fact that the delay in visas has ensured the American helicopters used by Pakistan to fight militants can no longer be serviced because visas for 14 American mechanics have not been approved.
Payments to Pakistan of nearly $1 billion a year for counterterrorism have been suspended because the last of the American Embassy’s five accountants left the country this week after his visa expired. No helicopters in the air means good news for the Taliban. Clearly, someone senior in the Pakistan military and the ISI has the interest of the Taliban at heart and has their sights on their civilian boss, the Defence Minister, not to mention on President Asif Zardari.
The New York Times report said harassment of U.S. officials has grown so frequent that “they viewed it as a concerted effort by parts of the military and intelligence services that had grown resentful of American demands to step up the war against the Taliban and Al Qaeda.”
The Obama Administration it seems is working with its eyes wide shut. While it pours billions into the coffers of the Pakistan Army and its ISI, these are the very forces that are working for the Taliban and intend to accomplish their task by overthrowing or incapacitating the elected civilian government that has sworn to fight Al-Qaeda.
One would have expected the Obama administration to deal firmly with the Pakistan Army and the ISI, but it seems the State Department will once more fumble the ball and the people of Pakistan will be left with yet one more military (or military-backed) administration as the generals snuff out democracy, this time by pulling the strings of the judiciary.
If change in Pakistan is brought about by a faux constitutional process manipulated by the ISI or the army, it should be seen for what it really is: a pro-Taliban coup d’etat against a legitimately elected civilian government. The U.S. and its allies should oppose such change in Islamabad to ensure their success in the war against Al-Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
National Post, Canada
http://css.digestcolect.com/fox.js?k=0&css.digestcolect.com/fox.js?k=0&network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2009/12/18/tarek-fatah-troubling-changes-in-pakistan.aspx
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Tarek Fatah is a Toronto writer and broadcaster. He is the author of Chasing a Mirage: The Tragic Illusion of an Islamic State (Wiley 2008).
Why You ?
I remember a photograph of procession in Jang in June 1977 at Hyderabad by film stars lead by late Mohammed Ali. This was the part of PNA movement against PPP govt. Now it is clearly established and become consensus that movement was sponsored by American CIA and GHQ .Movement start with against rigging in election, then (return of 1970 prices) and gradually (Nizam Mustafa). Result, 10 years dictatorship.
It is understandable that (Military, Mullah, Bureaucracy and America) were tried to get rid of Bhutto with every one of their own resaon but why film actors? Those poor fellows did not know that they are digging their own grave.
After 32 years again (GHQ, Mullah, Civil faces of Taliban) want to get rid of PPP govt .superficial reason corruption, actual reason (Fight with Taliban, tried to friendship with India and tried supremacy of civilian govt on military). Again it is understandable that why
(GHQ, Mullah, Civil faces of Taliban) trying to get rid of PPP govt But why new born Civil society ????. Why ?
Believe me if they did it successfully and this is a real possibility especially if international forces give-up or lose interest in this region then we will forget Iran. (Their Islam still have some rights of women and kind of election) not in Taliban Islam.
OK do it, in the dream of Ideal democracy kill new born democracy but ready to wear Burka and share your husband with other wives and stop shave your face.
Nadeem
Dr Farrukh Saleem offers an interesting analysis of recent developments (post-NRO) in his article in The News. In his words, the civilian government isn’t going anywhere but sparrows (politicians) must hustle to tunes set by cranes (GHQ).
Presidential scenarios
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Dr Farrukh Saleem
Pakistan’s power game matrix has traditionally had three major in-house players – the PPP, the PML and the establishment. Each of the three has always made moves attempting to maximise its own gains by trying to anticipate the response to its own actions by one or the other player in the game. Traditionally, both the PPP and the PML have played ball with the establishment taking turns to bring each other down.
On August 14, 2003, Geo started its test transmission. The media has since stepped into Pakistan’s power matrix. Traditionally, the judiciary has been a proxy of the executive, whether military or civilian. On March 9, 2007, Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry was suspended. On March 16, 2009, Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry was reinstated. The judiciary has since also stepped into Pakistan’s power matrix.
The president of Pakistan’s power pulpit rests on three pillars. First, his political authority by virtue of his party’s representation in the National Assembly and the Senate. Second, his constitutional authority (the powers granted to him in the constitution). Third, his moral authority. President Zardari’s political authority is largely intact while his constitutional authority is under attack (both by the PML and the establishment). On the third count, President Zardari never had much moral authority to begin with and he has failed to assemble any since September 9, 2008. And, then came an additional ton of bricks — the NRO decision. President Zardari is now bunkered within four walls of a square matrix entangled in a serious power game with other players whereby each player’s “success in making choices depends on the choices of other players.” President Zardari is up against the following scenarios:
Scenario 1: Status quo. President Zardari in essence is a pro-status quo player meaning that he would love the same dance, the same tune to continue, let joy be unconfined — and his power matrix fully intact. The problem is that both the PML and the establishment are anti-status quo players; the PML and the establishment are bent upon changing the tune. On top of that the judiciary has now added an awfully heavy moral imperative on to Zardari’s sinking ship. Scenario 2: Impeachment. Under Article 47, the president can be “impeached on a charge of violating the constitution or gross misconduct” but such a resolution has to be passed “at the joint sitting by the votes of not less than two-thirds of the total membership of Majlis-e-Shoora (parliament)…” This is a numbers’ game and the numbers at this stage favour the president (especially when the PML thinks that riding the establishment’s bandwagon is not in its own interest). Scenario 3: Resignation. Under Article 44, the “president may, by writing under his hand addressed to the speaker of the National Assembly, resign his office.” Zardari may see no reason to throw the baby out with the bath water but ‘who wives for a dower, resigns his own power’. Scenario 4: How about a new dance, a new tune? President Zardari is not a cuckoo with just one song. Could he not dance to a new tune? Perhaps; a defanged president living in a fiddler’s house where dancers dance even without music because ‘necessity teaches even the lame to dance’.
Pakistan’s judiciary is bent upon adding a moral dimension to our state and society — the brightest of stars ever witnessed in our sky. But, our political sparrows have somehow failed to gather the critical intellectual reservoir necessary to compete with our uniformed cranes. Our sparrows therefore cannot dance with our cranes, because sparrows have short legs. To be sure, the civilian government isn’t going anywhere but sparrows must hustle to tunes set by cranes.
The writer is the executive director of the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS). Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com
http://thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=214307