Hunza lake may burst its banks – The Flood Forecasting Division of the Pakistan Meteorological Department
Source Pamir Times and Dawn:
by Intikhab Hanif
LAHORE, May 12: The Flood Forecasting Division of the Pakistan Meteorological Department warned on Wednesday that the lake created in Hunza valley by a massive landslide in January could be breached at any time because water was continuously flowing into its lake.
In an advisory issued to all government departments, the division said that appropriate measures should be taken as quickly as possible to deal with the threat.
The problem should be resolved by May 25. “Otherwise, there will be overflow of water. The resulting chain reaction may also damage Tarbela dam,” head of the division, Hazrat Mir, told Dawn.
The FFD had issued a similar warning on March 31, urging authorities to take immediate measures to avert any catastrophe.
According to the latest advisory prepared by Mr Mir, the Indus flows are mainly based on the glacier/snowmelt contribution and the Hunza River, on which the dam has been formed, is one of the major contributors to the flows.
With an increase in temperature, the snowmelt rises very rapidly and the average discharge at Dinyore downstream Attabad, jumps from 6,000 cusecs during May to 20,000 cusecs during June, and to 40,641 cusecs during July.
The latest report by the NDMA (National Disaster Management Authority) indicates that the discharge these days is more than 2,300 cusecs and the level of the lake is 320 feet at Attabad.
The present rise in the level of the lake due to this is approximately 3 feet per day which will reach 5 feet per day in the near future. With this rate of rise in level the situation may become critical soon.
The banks of the lake are not properly constructed and there is no proper spillway. So there is the likelihood that the increasing pressure from the additional water accumulating in the lake will create breaches in the dam, “which will develop into the worst kind of flash floods in the Hunza River, creating havoc downstream”, according to the advisory.
In its earlier advisory on March 3, the FFD had indicated that blasting by the KKH (Karakoram Highway) constructors might have caused cracks in the mountain slopes which gave way due to an earthquake, blocking the Hunza River.
It had said the natural lakes created in the hilly areas due to landslides posed a major threat to the localities situated downstream. This threat was proportional to the value of water contained in the lakes.
Meanwhile, some residents of Gilgit-Baltistan said that overflowing of water from the lake at Attabad would be devastating for the people of the area.
Speaking at a news conference at the Lahore Press Club, Baba Jan, a former member of the District Council, Gilgit, and others said the time was running out fast. The water level had reached dangerous levels.
It was now time for people to be evacuated from the area, they added.
They said the lake which had already caused a lot of damage to the region was bound to affect tourism resort Gulmat Gojal in a day or two, damaging hundreds of houses, three main hotels, several orchards and agriculture land.
Some comments from the Pamir Times:
http://pamirtimes.net/2010/03/11/seepage-from-the-lake-barrier-is-increasing/
Sher Karim says:
The consequences of the sudden burst of the dam will be long lasting for the region pushing the already struggling population harder down below the poverty line by destroying their livelihood.
The physical infrastructure worth billions will be washed away and the only beneficiary will be FWO. That is why they have been playing with the monster land slide debris with inadequate and insufficient equipments for their future prospects in terms of billions of rupees of contracts for rebuilding them.
The efforts of the youth and our professionals has been fruitful as the media and authorities have waken up only because they have just realized that this disaster has actually turned into a potential threat downstream settlements and infrastructures upto the largest dam of Pakistan the Tarbela.
I think that the criminal negligence of the authorities like WAPDA, Environment Ministry, Meteorology department and others is now going to cost the nation quite heavily.
God forbid, if something happens really bad, are the high-ups in these authorities taking the responsibilities for the losses.
We are really indebted to the media especially AAJ TV and the Dawn Group who realized the magnitude of the threat which was earlier thought to be a tiny local landslide.
Asim Saeed:
If the seepage speculation came true, the debris will become hollow and one day the artifical dam will brust,which will rampage the villages at its bank in the downstream. So highly caution is needed, the administration should try its level best to protect the precious lives.It can also be dangerous for the bridges and roads at the down sides. Basic nesscities should be supplied to the Hunza region in advance, so that in future, God forbid,if the area cut down from rest of the region,people should get the nesscities with ease.
Jawed Umer says:
May 13, 2010 at 12:07 pm
This is a national and strategic calamity. The entire national effort should have been focused on it in January and a channel made in it before march.
No one realised the seriousness and now we are waiting for Allah to do some thing. Our Land link with China is gone and will be off for a long time.
After joining as Member (technical) Mr. Ahmed Kamal, had immediately order FWO (Army Engineers deputed to make spillway). In addition, at he started negotiation with Chinese team for making breach of lake as a Mega project to mint money for bunch of corrupt Minister and other cronies. The Chinese team categorically told Ahmed Kamal and other officials in a meeting at Islamabad the technical assistance would purely on humanitarian ground. The Chinese team further told Government of China would not claim any single penny against this job and purpose of help is rehabilitates the affected area of Attabad and Karakoram Highway, as soon as possible.
The Karakoram Highway is a trade as well as strategic link between two countries. Karakoram Highway also link Arabian Sea with Tajikistan, China, and other Central Asian states and Russia also.
This is the inside authentic story narrated by patriotic, loyal official of NDMA, who had closely watched witnessed the whole deal of Ahmed Kamal. Now, it is duty of Media, impendent Judiciary and Pak Army to investigate why Ahmad Kamal doen this? Is it part of international conspiracy to cut Gilgit-Baltistan from Pakistan or whole lake was not breached to grab foreign Aid and other funds.
Full marks to Mr. Raja Pervaiz Ashraf for selecting Mr. Ahmed Kamal, who has all capabilities and fame for well-design and engineered corruption.
I have already sent my reply, a few minutes ago.