Naya Pakistan, an old fable

Source: Based on excerpts from Kafila

There is the ideal scenario that the Imran Khan ‘tsunami’ sweeps the elections. Although, it is not likely to happen, we must shudder at the thought of what this storm might do in the name of change. Pakistan is a great country where the elite abuse others by calling them elite and thus worth targeting. The PTI support base will hound anyone and everyone who is not part of their elite base.

The other possibility is for the PTI to get a maximum of 30-35 seats. This case involves a double whammy of not being the tsunami that was expected and being forced to make a coalition with the less perfect parties in order to then form the government. This is a case in which the PML-N may get around 90 seats, limiting Nawaz Sharif from making a coalition. Then the PTI would have to make a government in coalition with the PPP, JUI-F, MQM, ANP and JI. Under the circumstances, the PTI could opt to sit in the opposition, in which case it will do nothing but ensure that the government falls as quickly as possibly paving way for next elections. The third option, of course, is making coalition with some of these parties that Imran Khan has lambasted all this while. The third option could break the party as its ideological base will get frustrated and even whither away.

One of the pre-conditions of the change mantra is that the PPP will lose badly. Some enthusiasts have even predicted the party getting limited to ten seats in the entire country, which is wishful thinking. The party will make gains in Sindh even though it is likely to lose about 15 odd seats there out of a total of 61. It is likely to gain another 15 or so from Punjab and perhaps 2-3 in KP. The total will then be over 75, which gives it a safe margin to form a coalition with the help of MQM, ANP and/or JUI-F. Such a scenario is likely to en masse depression amongst those who hope for change. For them, it is unbelievable that the PPP could manage to form government again, given its lacklustre performance. It is indeed a fact that the People’s Party did nothing to help ordinary people except provide jobs and other opportunities to its clients. This system contributed tremendously in damaging the fledgling education system in its own home province in Sindh where a large number of schools are used as stables or stores for the local waderas (landed-feudal). Some such schools will hopefully be vacated on orders of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to serve as polling stations. People in Sindh will vote for the PPP because the other alternative is hardly an option. Sindhis were of the view that the PPP at least they could abuse, but not the Pir Pagaro who is a spiritual leader and cannot be taken to task the same way as any other stakeholder.

Interestingly, the PPP is absent from the electoral scene. None of its leaders is out there campaigning. Bilawal Bhutto has security concerns and Asif Ali Zardari is barred from political activity. In any case, it would not benefit the party if Zardari’s face is shown too often as part of the campaign. The party continues to use the dead Bhuttos to muster support. Lately, it has also engaged in negative publicity against the PML-N, a party that seems to be under fire from three sides: the Army, PTI and the PPP. The Sharif brothers and the larger Sharif family are bending backwards to showcase their successes such as the Metro Bus project in Lahore. This is a transport project that services north and south Lahore. While there is a lot of criticism of the project, it does provide relief to many in the city especially the lower-middle class.

The PML-N also distributed free laptops to students to check the PTI’s growing popularity amongst the youth. In many ways, the PML-N is obsessed with Imran Khan, who appears to be the only one with the capacity to thwart their chance to rule the country for next five years. The Sharifs believe that they should now get an opportunity to form government.

Their obsession to return to power in Islamabad also pertains to the unfortunate way in which their government was ended in 1999 and they were packed off to Saudi Arabia in forced exile. Which is also why the army is divided in its support of the PML-N. It is popularly believed that the GHQ at Rawalpindi is likely to tolerate the younger brother, Shahbaz Sharif, over the older, Nawaz Sharif. The younger one is seen as a satisfactory administrator who will play ball with the army. It is the older brother that the generals don’t like as he is the one who is ideologically poised and less willing to take it lying down from the army.

In a recent interview with the Indian journalist Karan Thapar, Nawaz Sharif talked about setting up an inquiry commission on Kargil. He is also not ready to forgive Pervez Musharraf and many generals feel he will not be compromising. Many observers, therefore, argue that Sharif’s ascendency to power will offer a major challenge for civil-military relations. People in touch with inner circles of the army and the ISI talk about the apprehension that Nawaz Sharif’s government will be a death knell for the military’s influence. These sources even suggest that the confrontation could be avoided if Nawaz Sharif opts to become Pakistan’s Sonia Gandhi and lets someone else from the party become prime minister.

That, however, is not his style.

It is worth appreciating that forming a government is a matter of life and death for both PTI and PML-N (the PPP is psychologically and emotionally more of a spoiler this time). The Sharifs do not want to lose any seats. This compulsion is one of the many reasons that forced PML-N into a seat-adjustment alliance with the political wing of the banned Deobandi militant outfit, Sipha-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP) which is contesting elections under the banner of Ahle Sunnat wal Jamaat (ASWJ). The agreement is meant to capture thousands of SSP votes scattered all over Punjab and Sindh. It could also be argued that this partnership is a natural extension of the deal which was struck between the PML-N and the SSP way back in 2008. According to this deal, the SSP had agreed not to contest elections against Shahbaz Sharif and not to physically hurt the family in return for the party providing jobs to SSP workers and freeing one of its key leaders, Malik Ishaq, provided that the courts freed him. The agreement worked out well for both.

It was also this relationship that General Kiyani alluded to in one of his recent speeches. The only issue is that Kiyani’s warning is too little too late. Allowing militant outfits to contest elections is bound to provide them greater depth and penetration in the society. It will further radicalisation, which does not bode well for religious minorities.

The final outcome of the elections is a big mystery. The answer depends on several imponderables, starting with where the youth will put its weight.

http://kafila.org/2013/05/10/naya-pakistan-an-old-fable-ayesha-siddiqa/

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