The challenge of an uncertain future —Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi
The most certain feature of Pakistan’s democracy is an uncertainty of its future. The optimistic view describes the current difficulties as the issues of transition from a military-dominated political order to a participatory civilian political system, which will take time to settle down. The current problems are the transitional problems on way to a fuller and more participatory governance system. It is evident from the unanimity among the provinces on the National Finance Commission (NFC) Award (2009), the launching of the Reforms Package for Balochistan (2009), the unanimous passing of the 18th Amendment (2010) and the growing independence of the judiciary that the political conflicts are being resolved through dialogue and political accommodation.
The realistic approach, focusing on the overall performance of the state institutions and implementation of various policy decisions, views the future of the current democratic political arrangements as uncertain. The issues that cause uncertainty about political stability and internal harmony include poor governance, the troubled economy, persistence of religious extremism and militancy, the overactive superior judiciary that endeavours to expand its domain and the off-again, on-again confrontation between the federal government and an array of political adversaries.
The federal and provincial governments are performing poorly so far as governance and delivery of services to the people are concerned. This has caused alienation among the people from the civilian governments who periodically engage in street protest and violence, disrupting life in major cities and towns.
The most serious challenge is in the economic domain. Pakistan is not expected to create an economy, based primarily on domestic sources rather than relying heavily on external economic assistance and remittances from Pakistanis settled abroad. These constraints make it extremely difficult for the government to provide economic relief to the ordinary citizens. Further, the government policies have utterly failed to reduce economic disparities between the richest and the poorest, making the latter more vulnerable to radical Islamist appeals. Further, external economic dependence reduces the security and foreign policy options.
Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership has shown determination to fight terrorism in Swat and the tribal areas. These efforts have been reasonably successful, but this challenge is expected to haunt Pakistan for at least four-five years. This has led the government to divert some resources from socio-economic development to counter insurgency. Further, military action has displaced over one million people. The government faces an uphill economic challenge for assistance and relief to these people and their rehabilitation back home after the extremists are expelled from their home areas.
These two challenges — the economy and extremism and terrorism — could be addressed more effectively if the opposition political parties extend their full support. They appear to be more active in pointing out deficiencies in the government’s economic policies and its inability to provide economic relief to the common people. However, no opposition party, including the PML-N — the major opposition party — has provided an alternative economic plan of action for coping with the current economic predicament.
The same can be said about the disposition of the PML-N on terrorism. Nawaz Sharif maintains ambiguity on his party’s policies towards the al Qaeda and the Taliban. Several senior members express sympathy for Islamic militancy and often criticise the government’s counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency policies. Though the party’s top leadership avoids direct criticism of the Pakistan military, they often accuse the government of bowing to American pressures and serving American agenda in the region. Again, no opposition party provides an alternate plan to deal with religious extremism and militancy. The Punjab government refuses to acknowledge the existence of Islamic militant elements in Punjab. The two terrorist incidents in Lahore on May 28 clearly show that the Punjab government needs to review its disposition towards militancy.
These developments have put the PPP-led federal government on the defensive, especially because their governance and economic management is far from satisfactory. The major thrust of criticism has to be faced by the PPP because its coalition partners, especially the MQM, do not own any unpopular policy. In fact, the MQM does not hesitate to criticise the federal government if it perceives a policy going against its political interests and assets in urban Sindh.
Another source of pressure for the federal government is the superior judiciary that invokes judicial activism to repeatedly censuring the executive. This has created a perception in the political circles that the Supreme Court (SC) might pass an adverse order against the federal government of President Asif Ali Zardari. In addition to the court case pertaining to implementation of the NRO judgement, the adversaries of the PPP have filed several cases in the SC: the procedure for appointment of the judges of the superior courts; constitutional amendment and the basic structure of the constitution; President Zardari’s decision to continue as the co-chairman of the PPP; and presidential pardon for Rehman Malik.
During 1988-1999, the opposition used to woo the army top brass to apply pressure on the civilian government. Now, in 2009-2010, as the army avoids direct role in politics because it is engaged in counter-terrorism, the PPP’s adversaries are approaching the SC with the hope that it would knock out the PPP government or President Zardari.
It is interesting to note that after the appearance of the federal law minister before the SC on May 25, Nawaz Sharif made an extremely hard-hitting statement on the performance of the government and advised them to implement the orders of the SC. This press conference was meant to increase pressure on the federal government as well as to communicate a subtle message to the SC that the major opposition party would support the apex court if it passed an adverse order against the federal government.
Democracy cannot endure if the major political players do not work in harmony within a democratic and constitutional framework. Pakistan faces so many complex challenges that a single political party cannot cope with them. If the PML-N comes to power today, its government will face all the problems that have adversely affected the present federal government. The opposition should not seek extra-parliamentary options to knock out the government. This will shift the initiative to non-elected state institutions.
Similarly, an independent judiciary can exist only in a democratic order. The judiciary alone cannot secure democracy and the rule of law by curtailing the role of the legislature and the executive.
Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi is a political and defence analyst
I read with interest the articl entitled ” Challenges of uncertain Future for Pakistan by Mr. Hassan ASkari. He has given all the reasons of Uncertainities in Pakistan. The main reasons are the same that everybody knows. There is no secret aboutit. It is sadmitted that Goverance is bad, economy imelt down is happening, Political turmoil and Extremism exists and prevails.
We are passing through dangerous times, and living dangerously. Future is not certain , It is given that security of the country has been compromised. There is lack of trust in the governments. THe federal government blanes provincial government vice versa. Both are bad, and running the gountry in a whiniscal way. The Punjab government has btoken all records of bad goverance. It is incompetent, incaoble and has no integrity. The dictatorial democracy is the rule of the day. Allkind of Schemes to fleece the people are invented. THe government has no policies in place. The bureaucratic set up is running the provincial government.
The Federal government has miserably failed. It has not been able to delive on their promises. Tthe uncertainities effect the economy, investment, financial makets, and stock markets. The rampant corruption is one of the major factor for te failure and down turn of the economy. the Black money and parallel economy exists side by side further making it worse.
The trade deficit further cotr ibutes towards prevalent weakened economic condition.We are navigating in the uncharterd waters.We have no plans and policy in place ton improve the political, economic, and law and order situaation. This is gross abuse of State power/which gives rise to suspicions, uncertainties and distrustin the future/We have not progressed towards better fut ure for lack of public policy. We waste time on endless discussion on thesematters, but we have not written a single paaper to indicate how we are going to solve the major political and economic crises faced by us.We need solution oriented debate not just criticism.
As for the instituation , they must work within the limits imposed by the constitution i.e, constitutional powers should be exercised. Imdependence of Judiciary caan oly be ensured ifthe government implement its decisions in letter and soirit. No haif baked measures can be aa substitute for that exercise The judicial activism has been stretched too far. It must be curtailed by the Judiciary itself. The confrontation must end. this mode is dangerous for the democracy. Democracy can only be stengthened by rule of law and dispensation of justice . There should be no compomise made on this matter.
We must strengthen the education and health system.
With administrative policy and good goverance we can remove these uncertainties of future , and sustain our economy. The political parties must play a positivr role in all these matters They cean by their unity defeat the forces of extremism and terrorism.Forget their differences in the national interest .It should be supreme.
JAVAID BASHIR
Financial Analyst Lahore